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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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NVIDIA GTC to Take Place in Taipei from June 1-4

UnitedHealth Group Faces Profit Pressure Amid Rising Medical Costs and Membership Structure Changes

Nvidia Drops for Three Days but Wall Street Raises Target Price to $300 Amid Strong AI Chip Demand

Home Depot Stock Price Target Cut from $399.4 to $391.78

Coca-Cola Executive Nancy Quan Sells 31,625 Shares After Exercising Options at Avg Price of $80.93

Home Depot Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call: Management Discusses Cost Structure and Expenditure Factors

Chevron and Motiva limit key motor oil raw material deliveries

AWS CEO Matthew Garman Sells $3 Million Worth of Stock

Amazon CEO Douglas Herrington Sells 3,742 Shares for Approximately $980,000

Apple acquires Animato to gain intellectual property and hire its employees

Cisco Releases Q3 FY2026 Earnings: Revenue of $15.8B Beats Expectations

NVIDIA and Google Cloud Announce Collaboration at I/O to Empower 100k Developers Building AI Apps

McDonald's Announces Delay in 2030 Scope 3 Emission Target and $1 Billion Supply Chain Investment

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating on Nvidia, focusing on growth beyond the "$1 trillion guidance"

Amazon Refreshes Fire TV and Alexa+ to Boost Retail Business

BNP Paribas and Others Lower Home Depot Price Targets, Maintain Neutral Rating

US and China agree to intergovernmental dialogue on AI, 10 Chinese firms approved to purchase NVIDIA's H200 chips

Nvidia Plans to Release Q1 FY2027 Earnings Report as AI Infrastructure Spending Solidifies Key Role

Apple acquires virtual avatar software company Animato to enhance Vision Pro functions

Jefferies cuts Home Depot price target to $361, maintains Buy rating

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Major US stock indices closed lower, with the NASDAQ down 0.84% and the Russell 2000 falling 1.01%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also declined by 0.67% and 0.65%, respectively. Investors are concerned about rising global yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher energy prices impacting inflation. The NASDAQ found support near its 100-hour moving average at 25,800.58. Verizon was the biggest gainer in the Dow, while Cisco was the biggest decliner. Shake Shack rose 7.38%, while Chewy and Roblox lagged.

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Chewy

Verizon

Cisco

Major US stock indices close lower

A recent report has revealed that the unemployment rate in the country has dropped to 3.8%, marking a significant decrease from the previous rate of 4.2%. The number of new jobs created in the last month alone totaled 250,000, exceeding economists' expectations. Additionally, the average hourly wage saw an increase of 2.5%, indicating positive growth in the labor market. These statistics point to a strengthening economy and provide hope for those seeking employment opportunities.

Unusual Whales

SIH Partners notifies about participation.

U.S. credit card delinquencies have surged to 13.1%, the highest since 2010, indicating significant financial strain on households. Delinquencies rose 0.4 percentage points in Q1 2026, with a total increase of 5.5 points since Q3 2022. Additionally, student loan delinquencies reached 10.3%, and auto loan delinquencies hit a record 5.6%, reflecting growing repayment stress among consumers.

- Credit card delinquency rates in the U.S. have surged to a 15-year high, hitting 13.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to The Kobeissi Letter.  
- This marks a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a significant rise of 5.5 percentage points since Q3 2022, surpassing trends seen from 2007 to 2010.  
- Additionally, serious delinquencies in student and auto loans have also increased, reflecting mounting repayment pressures on American households.

benzinga_article

Shutterstock

Americans Are Falling Behind On Credit Card Payments At The Fastest Pace Since 2010

The EU is in late-night negotiations to finalize a trade pact with the US, pressured by President Trump, who threatens new tariffs if an agreement isn't reached by July 4. The pact, established last year, sets tariffs on European goods at 15%. EU negotiators aim to resolve outstanding issues to avoid escalating trade tensions, with various political factions within the EU parliament pushing for a compromise.

Yahoo Finance

Under Trump pressure, EU seeks deal to end trade standoff

.NDX

US stocks fall further from their records

Barchart Option

NASDAQ-100

US stocks fall further from their records

G7 finance ministers met in Paris to address economic imbalances in a fragmented global economy, emphasizing the need for domestic actions to tackle trade issues. They called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine. Discussions included diversifying supply chains for critical minerals and the necessity for the IMF to enhance monitoring. The group acknowledged differing views on sanctions waivers for Russia, highlighting the challenges in achieving consensus among member nations.

- The G7 finance ministers unanimously recognized the need for action to address trade imbalances in a fragmented global economy, highlighting unsustainable current conditions.  
- They discussed the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the volatility of global bond markets, calling for immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and increased pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine.  
- Ministers also emphasized the urgency of ensuring secure passage through the Strait and mitigating supply chain pressures while acknowledging the ongoing inconsistencies within the G7 on various issues.

Businesstimes News

Thomson Reuters

G7 finance ministers agree need for action on economic imbalances

A new analysis warns that Treasury yields may rise significantly due to a 'pennant' chart pattern, indicating potential economic deterioration. The 10-year yield, which influences various loan rates, has been consolidating and could break out higher, possibly reaching 6.25% to 8.6%. This rise in yields, driven by factors like rising energy prices, could lead to increased borrowing costs and economic contraction. Analysts suggest caution as the market may face extreme conditions.

MorningStar

Factset Research

These charts offer a warning to the next generation - a new era of higher Treasury yields may be coming

EXCLUSIVE — President Donald Trump expressed confidence in incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and said he would leave the interest rate decisions to him. The Washington Examiner spoke to Trump during a Tuesday morning phone call and pointed out that investors are now pegging a higher chance of an interest rate hike rather than […]

Trump going to let Warsh do what he wants to do at Fed with interest rates

The Federal Reserve's report reveals that 25% of U.S. workers have used generative AI in their jobs recently, with higher rates among those with advanced education. Most users view AI as a tool for efficiency and career growth. The report also highlights stable financial conditions for U.S. residents, though younger individuals and low-income families face increased financial pressures, with inflation being a primary concern.

CoinLive

Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

The ADP NER Pulse indicates a rise in private employment, with the current week's four-week average at 42.25K compared to 33K last week. This high-frequency labor market indicator provides real-time insights into hiring trends, influencing Federal Reserve policy. A stronger pulse suggests aggressive hiring, supporting economic growth but potentially increasing inflation pressures, while a weakening pulse may indicate slowing labor demand and expectations for rate cuts.

- The ADP NER Pulse is a new high-frequency labor market indicator that tracks weekly changes in private sector employment using a four-week moving average.  
- It aims to provide real-time insights into recruitment trends, influencing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and economic growth.  
- A stronger NER Pulse may indicate robust hiring, potentially exerting inflationary pressure and supporting higher yields, while a weaker pulse could signal a slowdown in labor demand, impacting interest rate expectations and the dollar.

Automatic Data Process

ADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last week

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On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

US-Iran deadlock returns — is a ceasefire still possible?

- Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 393.7 points, the S&P 500 increased by 137.5 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 803.4 points at the open.  
- These gains were driven by expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume, leading to lower crude prices.

Reuters

US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall Street opens higher after US-Iran ceasefire

Trump: US and Iran had “very good and productive talks” over the past two days. On 23 March local time, Trump posted on Truth Social that “the United States and Iran had very good and productive talks over the past two days.” He also said he has instructed a five-day pause on all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Cannot tahan lah. Witnessed global sell-off this morning, and now we’re on a 🎢 rollercoaster? TACO time again? Will it rebound soon? $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $Gold(IN00380.US) $Silver(IN00270.US)

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What incredible joyous news! Long awaited reprieve for battered stocks, markets hammered weak for weeks! Not to mention the US economy.

- Wall Street's main indexes opened higher as risk appetite returned after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the military would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 226.3 points, or 0.50%, to 45,803.82, while the S&P 500 gained 68.5 points, or 1.05%, to 6,574.96.  
- The Nasdaq Composite increased by 348.2 points, or 1.61%, reaching 21,995.78 at the opening bell.

US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall St opens higher after Trump postpones strikes on Iranian power plants

How is he doing for money this March?

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- U.S. stock index futures rose significantly after President Donald Trump announced a postponement of military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.  
- As of 07:10 a.m., Dow E-minis increased by 1,246 points, or 2.72%, S&P 500 E-minis rose by 156.75 points, or 2.39%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis gained 489 points, or 2.03%.  
- The announcement positively impacted investor sentiment, contributing to the increases in futures.

US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Futures jump after Trump postpones military strikes on Iranian power plants

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My Investment Diary

Day 2 - My Investment DiaryWith the US stock markets closed for the weekend, we&#39;re taking a deep dive into yesterday&#39;s session, Friday, March 13, where we saw another rough close across the major indices.The $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) ended the day down 0.61% at 6,632.19, the $NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US) slid 0.93% to 22,105.36, and the $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) dipped a milder 0.26% to 46,558.47. This marks the fourth straight day of losses for the S&amp;P, pushing it about 5% below its recent highs and capping off a volatile week where erratic oil prices and geopolitical headlines dominated the narrative.At the forefront is the escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran. Reports of US and Israeli strikes, combined with Iran&#39;s threats to restrict oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, have sent crude oil prices surging. Brent crude topped $90 a barrel this week, fueling inflation fears and raising concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.@Bridge Buzz SG

NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector Market-Cap Weighted Index

This is semi-official bad news for all.

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UBS has downgraded its rating on US stocks to neutral allocation while maintaining an overweight on emerging market equities. The bank pointed out that the US market faces multiple risks, including low operating leverage, downside risks for the dollar, lackluster buyback yields, and high valuations. The strategy team stated that the drawdown of the US market relative to the global market is the largest in nearly 15 years

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UBS downgrades US stock ratings, warning of multiple risks including policy and valuation

2026年投资方向

美股

Last week, I already reminded everyone that the probability of this round continuing to surge higher is very low. Looking at this week's trend, the S&amp;P 500 has continued to decline, with the core drag coming from the Nasdaq. The reason it's extremely difficult to reach new highs again in the short term is that unless there is a major stimulus beyond expectations, the market lacks new upward momentum. Current macro data such as employment and CPI have not deteriorated significantly, so the problem is not at the macro level, but rather that the internal structure of the tech sector is changing. In January this year, Anthropic launched agent plugins, beginning to penetrate professional fields such as law, sales, and finance...

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This Week's Review: Thoughts on Asset Reallocation Amid Volatile Downtrend

The stock market has just witnessed how disruptive investors' concerns about artificial intelligence can be across multiple industries. Last week, the volatility in software stocks spread to the wealth management, transportation, and logistics sectors, raising questions about how much AI can truly transform the tech industry and high-fee service sectors. Affected by AI concerns, the financial services sector (XLF), consumer discretionary (XLY), and tech stocks were sold off, with both the S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) falling more than 1% this week...

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Charles Schwab

The Dark Side of AI: Wall Street Weighs the Recent Stock Market Sell-Off and Its Disruptive Impact