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Meta Analysts Revise Price Target After Q3 Core Ad Strength, Muse Concerns Remain

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Meta shares fell after Q3 earnings missed expectations due to $9.9B legal costs, though analysts mostly raised price targets citing strong core ad growth and AI momentum. However, concerns persist regarding Meta's aggressive 2027 capex plans for its Muse platform, with some analysts warning of potential equity raises and high investment risks.

Shares of Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) tanked in early trading on Thursday, despite the company reporting upbeat third-quarter results.

Here are some key analyst takeaways:

  • Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian maintained a Neutral rating, while raising the price target from $700 to $730.
  • TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge reiterated a Buy rating, while cutting the price target from $865 to $830.
  • Scotiabank analyst Nat Schindler reaffirmed a Sector Perform rating, while lifting the price target from $600 to $650.
  • Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett reiterated a Buy rating, while raising the price target from $886 to $900.
  • KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Justin Patterson maintained an Overweight rating, while lifting the price target from $900 to $905.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan reaffirmed an Overweight rating, while raising the price target from $840 to $860.
  • Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris reiterated a Buy rating and price target of $850.
  • Needham analyst Laura Martin reaffirmed a Hold rating on the stock.
  • Benchmark analyst Mark Zgutowicz maintained a Hold rating on the stock.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Wedbush: Meta’s third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance were broadly ahead of expectations, Arounian said in a note. He added, however, that management did not provide additional visibility into cost and capex outlooks for 2027, while indicating plans to continue investing "aggressively."

The strong AI product release cadence, especially the "big ambitions for Muse," is likely to require a significant increase in compute capacity in 2027, the analyst stated. He raised the 2027 capex estimate from $210 billion to $249 billion.

TD Cowen: Meta’s revenue grew 26.1% year-on-year and came in 2% higher than consensus, Blackledge said. While the company’s ad revenue beat reflected strength across all regions, time spent per user on Instagram and Facebook Reels grew by double digits in the quarter, he added.

Management’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $73-$76 billion was 3% above consensus, the analyst stated. "We expect META to continue to drive engagement & ad performance through LLM powered user & content understanding," he further wrote.

Scotiabank: Meta’s third-quarter results reflected continued core ad strength, Schindler said. He added, however, that Muse’s path to profitability depends on "a substantial reduction in serving costs and creating a new transaction-oriented revenue stream that requires changing consumer and business behavior."

The company plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars, beginning as early as fall of 2026, the analyst stated. Management indicated that an equity raise may be necessary for their business plans, he noted.

Rosenblatt Securities: The third-quarter results showed that Meta’s AI-driven ad growth story remains "intact," Crockett said.

Revenues grew 26% year-on-year to $64.6 billion, a slight deceleration from the second quarter’s 28% pace, the analyst stated. The company’s fourth-quarter guidance suggests revenue growth of nearly 27%, despite incremental currency headwind, "with AI credited for driving the growth by increasing engagement and return on ad spend," he added.

KeyBanc Capital Markets: Meta’s reported earnings of $3.83 per share, missing consensus estimate of $5.29 per share, Patterson said. This included $9.9 billion of legal expenses related to the company’s mental health settlement, excluding which earnings would have been reported at $7.40 per share, he added.

Meta’s ad revenue continues to benefit from AI initiatives, the analyst stated. He expects AI product momentum to support low-to-mid-20% revenue growth through 2028, offsetting some of the incremental capex.

Cantor Fitzgerald: Engagement trends in both Facebook and Instagram reached record levels, driven by strong growth in video, Mathivanan said. Management expressed confidence in strong revenue growth through the year, he added.

Muse reached over 10 million new accounts, with daily retention rates near 25%, the analyst stated. "We think the company is carrying plenty of momentum with Muse," he further wrote.

Guggenheim Securities: Meta’s third-quarter revenue and operating profit came in higher than Street expectations, Morris said in a note. He added that the fourth-quarter guidance and preliminary 2027 commentary "were incrementally positive."

More than 25% of Muse users made an average purchase above $200, the analyst stated. Management is pursuing monetization of Muse "sooner than its normal playbook, with Muse revenue per user expected to exceed the existing Family of Apps level (several hundred dollars annually per U.S. user)," he further wrote.

Needham: Analyst Laura Martin recommended investors to "stay on the sidelines," citing:

  • Meta has indicated the need for "hundreds of billions of dollars" for AI investments.
  • Nonvoting stock split implies the company could raise around $100 billion worth of equity in the first half of 2027.
  • Muse is in early stages, while Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Anthropic, and OpenAI "will each have agents, and some will be more trusted by consumers."

Benchmark: Meta’s gross margin of 79.3% missed consensus by around 80 basis points (bps), despite the revenue beat, Zgutowicz said.

Depreciation does not explain the gross margin miss as COGS (cost of goods sold) grew by $2.04 billion sequentially, while total D&A (depreciation and amortization) rose only $80 million, the analyst stated. This means at least $1.24 billion of the increase was cash cost, he noted.

META Price Action: Shares of Meta’s had declined by 8.02% to $641.55 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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