By William Gavin

Financial results are somewhat of a sideshow for an investor base eagerly awaiting updates on robotaxis, robots - and the cost of all that

Tesla's Cybercab robotaxi has been put to work on the streets of Austin, Texas, since last month.

Tesla's third-quarter earnings are coming, but what investors really want to hear about is the company's robotaxi progress, according to experts.

Last month, Tesla (TSLA) began putting its Cybercab robotaxi vehicle to work on its ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas. The autonomous vehicles are expected to be a boon to Tesla's profitability, but for now they're isolated to Austin amid a federal investigation.

Still, Tesla has now registered nearly 350 Cybercabs with the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles. According to the crowdsourced website RobotaxiTracker, 187 Cybercabs are active in Austin, representing half of Tesla's fleet in the city. When Tesla began service with the robotaxis last month, it had just a few dozen available.

"The next test is whether TSLA can expand unsupervised service while maintaining performance as the fleet grows," Oppenheimer analysts led by Colin Rusch wrote in a recent note to clients.

Tesla currently offers limited autonomous ride-hailing trips using Model Y SUVs in six U.S. cities, including Austin, as well as rides supervised by safety drivers in San Francisco. It's also won approval to deploy cars in Las Vegas and has been approved for testing in Phoenix.

The depth of Tesla's entry in each market can vary. It operates more cars in Houston than it does across Florida's Miami, Orlando and Tampa - combined.

"I think if you see them continue to crack into new markets and really get to the end consumer in said markets, I think it's a meaningful growth pocket for Tesla," said Ryan Lee, a senior vice president at exchange-traded-fund provider Direxion.

Tesla investors will also be paying close attention to Musk's commentary on the rollout of Tesla's Full Self-Driving software and Optimus humanoid robots. Little has been seen of the latter after Musk postponed a planned demonstration that was previously expected to be held in mid-2026.

The company is expected to report $28 billion in revenue on Wednesday, roughly equivalent to what the company raked in a year earlier, according to FactSet data. Most of that cash, some $19 billion, is forecast to come from electric-vehicle sales, which were stronger than initially anticipated by Wall Street.

The company is also forecast to post earnings per share of 45 cents, compared with 50 cents a year earlier, according to FactSet. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - a measure of profitability - is set to come in at $3.7 billion, a 10% decline.

Although those figures are important for determining Tesla's financial health, there's only one metric investors really care about right now, according to some experts, and that is capital expenditures. This year is expected to be Tesla's most expensive on record, with it planning to spend more than $25 billion across a slew of projects related to infrastructure. Last month, it took out $30 billion worth of credit and loan facilities.

Capital expenditures "will grow for the next two or three years," Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja told investors earlier this year, citing work on robotaxis, humanoid robots and other investments.

While Tesla isn't planning to spend as much as its sister company SpaceX, it's still following the broader "Big Tech" trend. Amazon.com (AMZN) has said it plans to book about $220 billion of capex in 2026, while Meta Platforms (META) - which also reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday - is expected to spend $139 billion this year, according to FactSet.

"The market demands Goldilocks. Spend too little, they punish you. Spend too much, they certainly punish you," Direxion's Lee told MarketWatch.

-William Gavin

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