Hang Seng TECH Index

Strategy Report

KWEB

STECH

Hello everyone, this is Dolphin Research! In last week's strategy report, Dolphin Research mentioned that after the tariff issue was settled, the market's focus would shift to Trump's second wave of tax cuts and industrial policies. &#34;But the fatal BUG here is that tax cuts and industrial stimulus essentially require fiscal backing.&#34; Will the upcoming short-term trading revolve around this &#34;BUG,&#34; thereby affecting the valuation expectations of the entire asset class? Let's take a detailed look: 1. Trump's &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34; Bill? This new bill, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34;...

Invesco QQQ Trust

Krne Csi China Internet

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

"Big and beautiful" = "big deficit", will US stocks be dragged down by US bonds again?

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As Alibaba &amp; Hang Seng Technology broke previous highs, here are some insights from Dolphin Research. During the Spring Festival of the Year of the Snake, while everyone is celebrating the New Year, the Chinese stock market, especially the Hong Kong stock market, and overseas markets, is quite vibrant. Taking the Hang Seng Technology Index as an example, from the low point on January 13 to today, it has accumulated a rise of over 25% in just one month, outperforming global capital markets and far better than the generally fluctuating U.S. stock indices during the same period, reminiscent of the significant surge around October last year. In this wave of surge, Alibaba is undoubtedly one of the leading stocks. From January 13 to today, it has accumulated a rise of about 50%. As a trillion-dollar giant, a half-fold increase in just one month is astonishing and has brought substantial returns to investors. Today, both Alibaba and the Hang Seng Technology Index briefly broke through last October's highs (though they have retreated somewhat since), and Dolphin Research would like to share some of our insights: 1) Firstly, the catalyst and main theme of this round of increase are different from last October. The previous surge was due to a policy shift leading to a comprehensive reassessment of Chinese assets. This time can be summarized as follows: DeepSeek has replicated the &#34;singularity moment&#34; of ChatGPT in the U.S. stock market, which has initiated a continuous AI wave. Therefore, the leading stocks in this round are mainly related to AI, including upstream semiconductor chips, cloud computing power providers, and software or hardware applicable to AI (such as smartphones, AR glasses, autonomous driving, etc.). 2) Since the main theme is closely related to AI, borrowing from the experience of the U.S. stock market, the earliest and most benefited from AI investments are the upstream chip hardware (NVIDIA corresponds to China's SMIC). Following closely are cloud computing providers represented by Microsoft (from the low point at the end of 2022 to the mid-2024 high point, trillion-dollar supergiants have seen their stock prices double). With the &#34;replay&#34; of the AI investment theme in China, the demand for cloud computing services from upstream is relatively certain, benefiting from the substantial usage requirements brought by downstream enterprises for both training and inference. Especially after DeepSeek has demonstrated the possibility of low-cost &amp; high-performance AI large models, it suggests that the costs for cloud providers to offer AI services may be lower than previously expected, and downstream demand may be higher than anticipated. This means higher profits + higher revenue potential, which can be said to enhance the market's long-term outlook for cloud providers in the AI era. Under this logic, domestic cloud computing or AI model providers like Alibaba and Baidu are the most direct beneficiaries. The news that Apple will collaborate with Alibaba to provide AI services for domestic iPhone users (which has been confirmed by Joseph Tsai today) has further highlighted Alibaba. Although the details of the collaboration are currently unknown and it is difficult to quantify the benefits, emotionally, the previously somewhat obscure Alibaba large model has been brought to the center of market attention under Apple's endorsement, amidst &#34;has-been internet celebrities&#34; like Wenxin Yiyan, Kimi, and Doubao. In short, the market's reassessment of Alibaba Cloud should be the main contributor to Alibaba's significant surge this time. 3) Additionally, Alibaba's valuation is still largely dependent on its Taobao and Tmall businesses, and the core e-commerce business must not become a drag on valuation. According to the company's guidance for 3QF25, the Taobao and Tmall Group expects CMR to grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by about 3% year-on-year. Compared to the less than 3% year-on-year growth in CMR and over 5% year-on-year decline in profits in 2QF25, there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement. Measures like full-site push seem to be starting to show effects in enhancing Taobao and Tmall's TR. Although we currently maintain a cautious outlook on the mid-term trends of domestic e-commerce, the improving state of the core e-commerce business at least won't worry investors about being undermined by a weak-performing e-commerce business while betting on AI and Alibaba Cloud, which is also the foundation for Alibaba's noticeable rise this time. 4) After a rise of about 50%, how do we view Alibaba's current price? Firstly, we want to point out that the aforementioned visions around AI and the reassessment of Alibaba Cloud's performance &amp; valuation are still in the logical and emotional phase, and the actual impact on performance will take time to materialize. In other words, the recent surge is partly driven by valuation expansion, especially the valuation of Alibaba Cloud. We consider two scenarios. Firstly, in a neutral optimistic scenario, we generally keep the valuation of the core Taobao and Tmall business unchanged (corresponding to the unclear prospects of domestic e-commerce), still applying a 10x PE to the adjusted earnings for 2025, corresponding to a valuation of about 1.5+ trillion. For Alibaba Cloud's valuation, we refer to the current implied expectations, applying a 5x P/S for 2025 revenue (slightly lower than the average of about 7x P/S for U.S. SaaS), corresponding to about 570 billion. The total valuation is about 2.1 trillion, roughly corresponding to the current market value. In an extremely optimistic scenario, if we restore the valuation of the core Taobao and Tmall business to 12x PE, Alibaba Cloud's valuation would be raised to above the average of U.S. SaaS at 10x P/S. Then, just the Alibaba Cloud business would correspond to about 1.15 trillion in market value, with the group totaling nearly 3 trillion in market value. It should be noted that this is a simple extrapolation of the valuation range under pure valuation expansion. As seen in the U.S. stock market, after the first wave of emotional surges, it is still necessary to observe the actual performance delivery of each quarter. If the narrative can be transformed into tangible incremental performance, then after raising performance expectations, the final valuation may exceed our above optimistic estimates. If it is just storytelling without performance delivery, then naturally it will &#34;come from nowhere, go back to nowhere.&#34; Of course, Dolphin Research holds an optimistic view on the overall prospects of AI. &lt;End of text&gt; Risk Disclosure and statement of this article: <a href="https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer">Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure</a>

海豚投研免责声明及一般披露 - 長橋證券（新西蘭） - 幫助中心

SMIC

Baidu

BIDU-SWR

BIDU-SW

Alibaba

BABA-WR

BABA-W

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Hang Seng Index

Apple

.IXIC

Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

NASDAQ Composite Index

SPDR S&P 500

Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

Hot topic

$Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) anticipated that after the Fed rate cut, the domestic policy space would open up, but did not expect such a significant shift in attitude towards the economy. Especially since normally, the political meetings at the end of September or in October do not usually focus on the economy, so this change in attitude came as a surprise. The current domestic economy is ailing, the symptoms of this ailment: deflation expectations are gradually solidifying, fundamentally due to the inability to sustain the previous economic model and the inability to find new driving forces...

Crazy! Chinese Concept Stocks

Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi Cut High-End Phone Prices for 618

XPeng He Xiaopeng Announces XPeng GX Official Launch Tonight at 7:30 PM

Kuaishou boosts promotion of Jay Chou's new album 'Son of the Sun', achieving 2.64 billion online exposures.

Alibaba holds Cloud Summit in Hangzhou, may release a major new AI model

Bilibili expects AI capex to rise by 1 billion RMB, maintains high ad growth and game launch plans

Xiaomi will hold a 'Human x Car x Home' new product launch event on May 21 to unveil the Xiaomi YU7 GT electric vehicle

Lenovo Unveils Tianxi AI 4.0 and AI Host P7: 300g Device Supports Local 122B Model Inference

KUAISHOU-W to Release FY2026 Q1 Earnings on May 27 After-Market (BJT), Forecast Revenue HKD 38.52 B, EPS HKD 0.6331

BYD's third-generation Yuan PLUS will be launched on May 21

Over 10 car companies, including BYD, have raised prices on some models

KINGSOFT to Release FY2026 Q1 Earnings on May 27 Pre-Market BJT, Forecast Revenue HKD 2.765 B

BYD sales in China slow as overseas deliveries skyrocket

Meituan's self-operated retail business 'Xiaoxiang Supermarket' to launch in Jinan and Qingdao, Shandong in May

Analysts Maintain Buy Rating on Baidu, Target Prices at 187 and 179 HKD

FactSet Survey: 31 Analysts Lower Bilibili's 2026 EPS Estimate to $1.03

Xiaomi Co-founder Lin Bin Plans to Reduce Shareholding Starting December 2026

Kuaishou Technology Plans to Hold Annual General Meeting on June 25, 2026

Tencent Holdings released the Next Day Disclosure Report on share repurchase

SMIC discloses two new deployments in the advanced packaging field.

BlackRock's Long Position in Meituan-W Decreases to 5.89%

ZHONGSHENJIANYE

FAMEGLOW

TJCD

HINSANG GROUP

CENTRAL DEV H

JOLIMARK

ZXZN QI-HOUSE

MEGAIN

NEW GONOW RV

HAICHANG HLDG

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A-SHARE OPEN LOWER, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -0.40%, SHENZHEN COMPONENT -0.53%, CHINEXT -0.48% HONG KONG STOCKS OPEN LOWER, HANG SENG -0.34%, TECH INDEX -0.35% $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG (

Unusual Whales

ChiNext

SSE Index

Shenzhen Index

Xtrk Hrvt Csi 300 Chn

iShares China Large Cap

NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index

Roundhill China Dragons ETF

Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X

Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X

A-SHARE OPEN LOWER, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -0.40%, SHENZHEN COMPONENT -0.53%, CHINEXT -0.48% HONG KONG STOCKS OPEN LOWER, HANG SENG -0.34%, TECH INDEX -0.35% $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG (

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China's economic growth slowed in April, with industrial output rising 4.1% and retail sales only 0.2%, both missing forecasts. Domestic car sales fell 21.6%, marking seven months of decline. Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in early 2026. Economists cite weak domestic demand and external risks from the Middle East conflict as factors. Despite a 5.0% growth in Q1, analysts warn of an uneven recovery, with the property market downturn continuing to impact growth.

- China's economic growth slowed in April, with industrial output increasing by only 4.1% and retail sales rising just 0.2%, significantly below expectations.  
- Factors such as high energy costs from the Iran war, weak domestic demand, and a drop in fixed-asset investment contributed to this downturn.  
- Economists warned that while exports held up, the ongoing property market downturn and rising input costs could further pressure the economy.

Business Standard

CSI 500

CSI 300

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

China's April growth slows as factory output, retail sales miss forecasts

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Hang Seng Investment Management maintains a neutral risk appetite for Q2, favoring US, Japanese, and global tech stocks while being cautious on European equities. The firm holds a positive outlook on Asian investment-grade bonds and has upgraded Asian high-yield bonds to neutral. It expects two rate cuts this year, likely starting in Q4, which could boost equity prices. Additionally, Hang Seng Investment will launch two ETFs: the "Hang Seng HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF" and the "Hang Seng TECH Covered Call Active ETF" with issue prices of HKD9.6 and HKD8.6, respectively.

AASTOCKS News

GTJA Allianz CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment ETF

Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF

China Southern CSI Semiconductor Industry Custom ETF

Penghua CSI HK Equities Technology ETF

Guotai CSI Computer Theme ETF

ChinaAMC Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF

Tianhong CSI Computer Theme ETF

Hang Seng Investment Upholds Neutral Risk Appetite in 2Q, Favors US, JP and Global Tech Stocks, Expects Rate Cuts in 4Q

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At midday, the HSI rose 69 points to 26,416, while the HSTI increased by 26 points to 5,096. Notable gainers included MEITUAN, up 4.8%, and JD, which surged 7% to hit a new high. Other stocks reaching new highs included FIT HON TENG, KB LAMINATES, and ASMPT. Overall, the market showed positive momentum with several heavyweights performing well, despite some declines in stocks like GEELY AUTO.

JD INDUSTRIALS

Meituan

MEITUAN

HSI Closes Midday at 26,416, Up 69 pts; HSTI Closes Midday at 5,096, Up 26 pts; MEITUAN Up over 4%; JD INDUSTRIALS, FIT HON TENG, KB LAMINATES, ASMPT, KINGBOARD HLDG Hit New Highs

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At market close, the HSI rose by 13 points to 26,406, while the HSTI increased by 3 points to 5,106. The HSCEI fell by 4 points to 8,884. Notable stock movements included BABA down 3.7%, while Lenovo Group, China Res Land, and China Overseas reached new highs. Market turnover was $288.49 billion, with significant short selling activity observed in several stocks.

CH OVS G OCEANS

FIT HON TENG

CHINA RES LAND

HSI Closes at 26,406, Up 13 pts; HSTI Closes at 5,106, Up 3 pts; BABA Down over 3%; LENOVO GROUP, CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, GOFINTECH QUANT, FIT HON TENG Hit New Highs; Market Turnover Rises

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The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3% intraday, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.54%. Kuaishou surged over 7%, Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed more than 6%, and Tencent Music, Kingsoft, and Baidu all gained over 5%.

CoinLive

TME-SW

HUA HONG SEMI

KUAISHOU-W

Tencent Music

KINGSOFT

KUAISHOU-WR

Hua Hong

STOCKS | Hang Seng Tech Index Rises Over 3% Amid Broad Gains in Hong Kong Stocks

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Asian tech rally drives mild gains as U.S.-China summit pressures Beijing shares

businessinsider

Zheshang CSI 300 Enhanced Index Fund(LOF)-A

China Universal CSI 300 Index Initiating Fund(LOF)-C

Asian tech rally drives mild gains as U.S.-China summit pressures Beijing shares

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At midday close, the HSI fell 290 points (1.1%) to 26,335, while the HSTI dropped 55 points (1.1%) to 5,065. Notable movements included POP MART rising over 5%, and CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, FIH, and PCCW reaching new highs. Active stocks included TENCENT down 1.6% and BABA down 1.5%. Other significant declines were seen in SMIC and JD HEALTH, while LONGFOR and BIDU-SW experienced gains. Short selling data indicated significant activity across various stocks.

- As of midday close, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 290 points or 1.1% to 26,335, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTI) dropped 55 points or 1.1% to 5,065.  
- Key movers included Tencent, which decreased by 1.6%, and Pop Mart, which increased by 5.1%.  
- The article highlights significant short selling activity across various stocks, with some displaying notable gains while others suffered losses.

Tencent Holdings Limited

POP MART

LONGFOR GROUP

CHINA OVERSEAS

KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF

E Fund CSI HK Connect Internet ETF

PCCW

TENCENT

XIAOMI-W

JD HEALTH

HANG LUNG PPT

JD LOGISTICS

CMOC

HANSOH PHARMA

ZTO EXPRESS-W

XINYI GLASS

WUXI APPTEC

160 HEALTH

TRANSTHERA-B

MEITU

POP MART HK SDR 20to1

Tencent

TENCENT-R

Tencent HK SDR 10to1

Xiaomi Corporation

XIAOMI-WR

Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

SMIC HK SDR 5to1

JD HEALTH-R

ZTO Express

WuXi AppTec

HSI Down 290 pts; HSTI Down 55 pts; POP MART Up over 5%; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, FIH, PCCW Hit New Highs

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The HSI rose 410 points to 26,623 at midday, driven by positive US market performance and strong earnings from AMD boosting chip stocks. The HSTECH gained 3.1%, with notable surges in KUAISHOU-W and HUA HONG SEMI, both up over 7%. Major stocks like TENCENT and BABA-W also saw gains, while turnover reached HKD165.774 billion. The overall market sentiment remains optimistic amid potential peace talks between the US and Iran.

HSI Up 410 pts at Half Day; HSTECH Gains 3%; KUAISHOU-W  and HUA HONG SEMI Surge Over 7%

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On May 8th, the Hong Kong stock market weakened under multiple pressures, including a sharp decline in overnight U.S. chip stocks and geopolitical tensions. Although the semiconductor sector and financial heavyweight stocks performed poorly, dragging the Hang Seng Index down by 0.87% to 26,393.71 points, there were significant structural opportunities in the market. The overall market was unusually active, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) leading with a transaction volume of HKD 13.9 billion. Funds showed a clear "high-low switch" trend, flowing from the hardware sector into the revalued AI application sector, driving Meitu Inc. up by 12.71% and Kuaishou-W rising by 9.71%. Additionally, the optical communication sector demonstrated resilience due to deepened industrial cooperation, while gold resource stocks gently rose, supported by geopolitical risk aversion and continued inflows into global ETFs (USD 6.6 billion in April). Overall, the market is in a sensitive period ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll data release, with funds gathering towards more certain AI applications and safe-haven assets amid a weak market structure

Market Pulse

Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)

CSOP HS TECH

Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)

ChinaAMC Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)

Hang Seng TECH ETF I

TRACKER FUND

Hong Kong stocks closed | Three major indices fluctuated and closed lower, semiconductor sector plummeted, AI applications strengthened against the trend

Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH.HK)

A-SHARE OPEN LOWER, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -0.40%, SHENZHEN COMPONENT -0.53%, CHINEXT -0.48% HONG KONG STOCKS OPEN LOWER, HANG SENG -0.34%, TECH INDEX -0.35% $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG (

China's April growth slows as factory output, retail sales miss forecasts

Hang Seng Investment Upholds Neutral Risk Appetite in 2Q, Favors US, JP and Global Tech Stocks, Expects Rate Cuts in 4Q

HSI Closes Midday at 26,416, Up 69 pts; HSTI Closes Midday at 5,096, Up 26 pts; MEITUAN Up over 4%; JD INDUSTRIALS, FIT HON TENG, KB LAMINATES, ASMPT, KINGBOARD HLDG Hit New Highs

HSI Closes at 26,406, Up 13 pts; HSTI Closes at 5,106, Up 3 pts; BABA Down over 3%; LENOVO GROUP, CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, GOFINTECH QUANT, FIT HON TENG Hit New Highs; Market Turnover Rises