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Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) reports third-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday, with the call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.

On Kalshi, more than $35,000 has been traded on which words Intel executives will say. Traders expect plenty of manufacturing talk, but are far less confident CEO Lip-Bu Tan will name major customers.

Analysts expect adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share on $16.49 billion in revenue, up about 21% year over year, according to latest consensus estimates. Intel shares have climbed approximately 159% this year.

What Kalshi Predicts Intel Will Say

“Foundry” leads at 99%. Intel’s chipmaking division lost $2.1 billion last quarter, with just $293 million of its $5.8 billion in revenue coming from outside customers. Intel aims to break even by the end of 2027, betting on lower manufacturing costs and major new customers.

“Panther Lake / 18A” sits at 98%. Panther Lake is Intel’s first PC platform built on 18A, its advanced 2-nanometer-class manufacturing process designed to challenge TSMC. Intel hopes to eventually manufacture chips for other companies, turning its expensive factories into a profitable business.

“Security” trades at 93%, while “Fortinet” sits at just 25%. Intel agreed in July to manufacture a chip for cybersecurity company Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT), its first publicly named outside foundry customer under Tan.

“Desktop” stands at 70%, even as global desktop shipments fell 23.5% in the third quarter, according to Omdia.

“Arizona” trades at 59%. Intel’s Fab 52 in Chandler manufactures its advanced 18A chips, making the state central to its manufacturing turnaround.

“Clearwater Forest” sits at 52%. Intel’s new server processor uses the same 18A technology and targets data centers, where demand for chips used alongside AI accelerators has helped drive revenue growth.

What Kalshi Predicts Intel Will Skip

“NVIDIA” sits at 48%. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) competes with Intel in AI chips but also invested $5 billion in the company. Intel will build custom processors for Nvidia’s AI systems, although Nvidia has yet to commit to using Intel’s foundries to manufacture its own chips.

“Mobileye” sits at 42%. Intel owns about 77% of autonomous-driving company Mobileye (NASDAQ:MBLY) and took a $3.9 billion goodwill impairment earlier this year as its valuation slumped.

“Government” sits at 37%. Washington agreed to invest $8.9 billion for a 9.9% stake in Intel last year.

“Apple” is at 12%. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been floated as a potential foundry customer, but neither company has confirmed a deal.

Reading the Board

The odds point to a gap between Intel’s manufacturing ambitions and the outside customers needed to pay for them.

Tan has said potential customers would begin making firm decisions on Intel’s next-generation 14A process in the second half of 2026, extending into the first half of 2027. That window is now open, putting pressure on Intel to turn interest into orders.

Options traders are pricing a roughly 9% post-earnings move, equivalent to about $45 billion in market value.

Investors will be listening for evidence that a major customer is ready to commit.

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