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US stock futures fell collectively at the end of the trading day

S&amp;P 500 Closes Below 200-Day Moving Average for First Time Since May 9

Speculators Increase Net Short Positions in S&P 500 Index

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AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

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S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY ENDS DOWN 49.98 POINTS, OR 0.68 PERCENT, AT 7,353.07

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S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY ENDS DOWN 49.98 POINTS, OR 0.68 PERCENT, AT 7,353.07

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Treasury yields have reached their highest level during Trump's potential second term, amid increasing speculation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This surge has resulted in a decline in the values of gold and the S&P 500, as reported by Investor's Business Daily.

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Treasury Yields Spike To Trump's Second-Term High, Sinking Gold And S&P 500

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The stock market is down as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 turn negative due to rising interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.60%, its highest since January 2025, impacting equity valuations. Higher yields could increase U.S. government debt payments by $1.5 trillion over the next decade. Morgan Stanley warns of a potential market correction if rates stay high, with ongoing bond volatility linked to geopolitical tensions.

- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have moved into negative territory as rising Treasury yields are impacting investor sentiment.  
- The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.60%, while the 30-year yield is at a 19-year high, which increases the attractiveness of bonds over stocks and may raise U.S. debt costs significantly.  
- Morgan Stanley cautions that if elevated rates persist, a meaningful correction in the stock market is likely, particularly amid ongoing bond volatility.

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Why Is the Stock Market Down Today, 5/18/26?

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Morgan Stanley warns of a potential 'meaningful correction' in the stock market due to a bond selloff, with the S&P 500 down 1% since its recent high. The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.58%, the highest since February 2025. Analysts expect equity prices to correct if rates continue to rise, influenced by the U.S.-Iran war and rising oil prices. Despite this, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,300.

- The S&P 500 has decreased by 1% since reaching a new record high, influenced by rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.58%.  
- Analysts from Morgan Stanley warn that if rates continue to rise, a significant correction in equity prices might occur, particularly due to the U.S.-Iran war's impact on oil and inflation risks.  
- Despite short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month price target for the S&P 500 to 8,300 and its 2026 year-end price target to 8,000.

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Stock Market Faces 'Meaningful Correction' Risk from Bond Selloff, Warns Morgan Stanley

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RBC forecasts the S&P 500 index to reach 7,900 points in 12 months, suggesting a 7.7% upside. The bank warns of potential market pullbacks of 5% to 10%, but a significant decline of 14% to 20% is unlikely unless recession risks emerge. This outlook is based on AI-driven earnings growth, with risks from inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical factors. RBC remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market and growth stocks.

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STOCKS | RBC Forecasts S&P 500 to Reach 7,900 Points in 12 Months

A technical signal in the S&P 500 indicates a potential pullback, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) showing an overbought RSI of 78. Historically, such conditions have led to declines of at least 7% in most cases. Market internals are weakening, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and rising Treasury yields may pose further risks. The S&P 500's tech sector weighting has reached a record high, raising concerns about market sustainability.

- A technical signal in the S&P 500 indicates a potential for a significant pullback, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust reached an overbought RSI of 78, leading to a 1.2% drop the following day.  
- Historical analysis shows that after similar RSI readings, SPY typically experienced declines of at least 7% in the weeks that followed, with market internals showing deterioration and a notable drop in the semiconductor sector.  
- Additionally, there is a concerning divergence in index breadth and rising Treasury yields, suggesting potential headwinds for the tech sector, which has reached a record weighting in the S&P 500.

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History suggests S&P 500 drops at least 7% when this happens

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Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman, faces challenges in implementing his monetary policy goals due to rising inflation and geopolitical unrest. While the bull market remains strong, Warsh's plans to reduce the Fed's balance sheet could lead to higher long-term interest rates, impacting stock valuations. The current S&P 500 P/E ratio is above historical averages, and uncertainty in Fed policy may increase as Warsh navigates dissent within the FOMC regarding interest rates.

Direxion S&P 500 Bear 1X

President Trump threw a wrench in Kevin Warsh's plans as Federal Reserve chairman, and it could be the undoing of the current bull market

Today's market downturn was influenced more by Japan and the U.K. than by Powell's departure from the Fed. Treasury yields surged in response to the Fed's changing stance, contributing to a drop in the S&P 500 index. These factors were key drivers behind the sell-off in the current market scenario.

Treasury Yields Jump Amid Fed Shift. Blame These Culprits As S&P 500 Falls.

Cramer warns that the current market is riskier than in 1999, citing concentrated gains in AI stocks and significant sell-offs in other sectors. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio is around 40, indicating potential for major declines. Additionally, inflation is expected to reach 6% in Q2 due to oil supply shocks, with technical indicators suggesting an overstretched market.

- Cramer warns that the current market is more perilous than in 1999, citing concentrated gains in AI stocks coupled with sell-offs in other sectors.  
- The S&P 500's CAPE ratio is at approximately 40, significantly higher than its historical average, indicating potential for major declines.  
- Additionally, inflation is expected to rise to 6% in Q2 due to oil supply shocks, with technical indicators suggesting that markets are currently overstretched.

Cramer warns AI-driven rally poses greater risk than 1999

S&P 500 earnings exceeded forecasts, with seven of nine major firms surpassing EPS estimates and strong revenue growth across various sectors. However, the Buffett indicator has reached record levels, indicating potential overvaluation. Investors are at a crossroads, balancing positive earnings against macroeconomic risks such as geopolitical tensions and high asset prices.

- Seven of nine major firms exceeded EPS estimates, indicating strong revenue growth in sectors such as AI chips and real estate.  
- The Buffett indicator has reached record levels, suggesting potential overvaluation amidst recent stock market highs.  
- Investors are at a crossroads, balancing positive earnings against macroeconomic risks like geopolitical tensions and elevated asset prices.

S&P 500 earnings beat forecasts as Buffett indicator flashes risk

MingRu

After-Market Quick Report 2026/05/04All three major indices declined:S&amp;P 500: Down 0.4%, closing at 7200.75 points.Nasdaq: Down 0.2%, closing at 25067.80 points (relatively resilient).Dow Jones: Down 1.1% (approx. 557 points), the worst performer.Black Swan Event: The UAE claimed to have been attacked by Iran, raising concerns that the ceasefire agreement reached in April may be invalidated. Brent crude surged 5.8% to $114.44.Market Sentiment: Although geopolitical tensions have caused volatility, the overall resilience of U.S. stocks remains strong, with corporate profit growth continuing to be a long-term supporting force. Key Sectors and Stock AnalysisSemiconductor/AI Sector:NVDA (NVIDIA): Closed at $198.45 (-0.56%) today. Technically, NVDA broke below the Fibonacci 0.236 level ($204.47), with an RSI of 67.36, indicating short-term overbought correction pressure.MU (Micron): Despite the broader market pullback, due to the continued supply shortage in AI memory (HBM) demand, market expectations for MU's earnings are extremely high, and it is currently in an adjustment phase within an uptrend channel.Defensive Sectors and Unusual Moves: Capital flowed into defensive sectors. Notably, BlackBerry (BB) surged nearly 3%, primarily driven by positive news regarding its QNX software collaboration with NVIDIA and increased penetration in the automotive market.Tomorrow's (5/5) Outlook and Trading Strategy SuggestionsKey Focus for Tomorrow:Geopolitical Developments: The Trump administration's &#34;Project Freedom&#34; escort plan is a core variable. If the U.S. military escort is successful and the situation stabilizes, oil prices may retreat, benefiting the broader market; if direct conflict occurs, oil prices could break $115, triggering a deep 2%-4% correction.Earnings Effect: AMD will release its earnings report after the market closes tomorrow. AMD's guidance for AI chips will directly determine the subsequent trend of the semiconductor sector (including NVDA and MU).Technical Analysis and Trading Logic:NVDA Support Level: Focus on the $194.77 (Fibonacci 0.382) support level in the short term. If it holds here, it's a good point to add to positions; if it breaks below, it may test $190.Strategy Suggestions:As recent volatility (VIX) has picked up, it is recommended to maintain selling put options (Short Put) to collect premiums in a high-volatility environment, but choose strike prices far from support levels (e.g., around $185 for NVDA).Monitor sector volatility driven by AMD's earnings. If AMD's performance exceeds expectations, it may lead the semiconductor sector to collectively recover from today's decline.Personal Recommendation: Tomorrow's market will feature the dual themes of &#34;geopolitical maneuvering + tech stock earnings expectations.&#34; Before the situation becomes clear, maintain portfolio flexibility and closely watch crude oil price movements as a risk indicator.

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Happy weekend! Looking at this, I know everyone is in a good mood. That's good! However, it also reminds me, what about Hong Kong stocks? It's not that there are no good stocks in Hong Kong, but it's really hard to pick the right ones. So, US stocks are still the best investment choice. Sigh... Starting from last June, I continuously reduced my heavy holdings in Tencent (sold at an average price of around 570-580), and then switched all positions to assets related to US stock composite indices. Currently, there's a floating profit of 25%. Still happy.

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The whole internet is hyping: Musk is kind-hearted, SpaceX is reserving 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors. This narrative is completely wrong from start to finish. It's not the conclusion that's wrong, it's the framework. The essence of IPO allocation: who sets the price, who takes the shares, let's first clarify a basic logic. IPO allocation is essentially a distribution of pricing power. Institutions get shares, obtaining the arbitrage right to &#34;buy at a low price and sell in the secondary market.&#34; Retail investors get shares, usually the leftovers after institutions have picked. In US IPO conventions, retail investors only get 5%-10%. Why? Because underwriters need institutions to &#34;discover the price&#34;...

Pro Shrt S&P 500(SH.US)

S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY ENDS DOWN 49.98 POINTS, OR 0.68 PERCENT, AT 7,353.07

Treasury Yields Spike To Trump's Second-Term High, Sinking Gold And S&P 500

Why Is the Stock Market Down Today, 5/18/26?

Stock Market Faces 'Meaningful Correction' Risk from Bond Selloff, Warns Morgan Stanley

STOCKS | RBC Forecasts S&P 500 to Reach 7,900 Points in 12 Months