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S&P 500 futures fell to intraday low

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The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) declined 0.67% today, May 19, its third straight day of losses. The drop came as Treasury yields jumped, inflation worries lingered, and tensions in the Middle East continued.Claim 55% Off TipRanksUnlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions Discover top-performing stock ideas and upgrade to a portfolio of market leaders with Smart Investor Picks

- The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.67% on May 19, marking its third consecutive day of losses.  
- This decline occurred as Treasury yields rose amid ongoing concerns about inflation and tensions in the Middle East.  
- The combination of these factors has contributed to the ETF's performance in the current market environment.

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Daily Update, 5/19/2026

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On May 19, 2026, U.S. stock indexes declined, with the S&P 500 falling 0.7%, marking its third consecutive loss since reaching a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8%. These declines occurred amid mixed international market performances and easing oil prices.

- The U.S. stock market experienced further losses, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.7% for its third consecutive loss after reaching a record high.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped by 0.8%.  
- These declines occurred amid mixed performances in international stock markets and a easing in oil prices.

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How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday 5/19/2026

On May 18, 2026, major US stock indexes experienced volatility amid uncertainty regarding the Iran war. The S&P 500 closed 0.1% lower, marking its second consecutive drop since reaching an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq composite saw a decline.

- Oil prices and global stock markets showed volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the Iran war. 
- The S&P 500 fluctuated, eventually closing 0.1% lower, marking its second consecutive decline since reaching an all-time high. 
- Conversely, the Dow Jones increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq composite experienced a decline.

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How major US stock indexes fared Monday 5/18/2026

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Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman, faces challenges in implementing his monetary policy goals due to rising inflation and geopolitical unrest. While the bull market remains strong, Warsh's plans to reduce the Fed's balance sheet could lead to higher long-term interest rates, impacting stock valuations. The current S&P 500 P/E ratio is above historical averages, and uncertainty in Fed policy may increase as Warsh navigates dissent within the FOMC regarding interest rates.

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President Trump threw a wrench in Kevin Warsh's plans as Federal Reserve chairman, and it could be the undoing of the current bull market

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U.S. stocks experienced a sharp decline on Friday, with major averages falling significantly after recent gains. The Dow dropped 495.24 points (1%), the Nasdaq fell 316.72 points (1.2%), and the S&P 500 decreased by 71.77 points (1%). This sell-off is attributed to profit-taking following the markets' recent strength.

- Stocks experienced a sharp decline during trading on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session.  
- The Dow fell by 495.24 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 316.72 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 71.77 points.  
- This downturn reflects notable downside movements across major averages.

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U.S. Stocks Pulling Back Sharply On Profit Taking, Treasury Yield Spike

Bond yields have surpassed stocks for the first time since 2003, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the S&P 500’s realized earnings yield by 1.1 percentage points. This historic gap indicates a shift in fixed income competition, as 30-year Treasuries yield 5.03% and investment-grade corporates near 6.5%. Higher yields may lead investors, particularly those with shorter time horizons, to redirect capital from stocks to bonds.

- A significant gap has developed as the 10-year Treasury yield surpasses the S&P 500's earnings yield by about 1.1 percentage points, marking the largest negative spread since 2003.  
- With 30-year Treasuries yielding 5.03% and investment-grade corporates at nearly 6.5%, bond returns are nearing historical equity averages.  
- This shift in yields may prompt investors with shorter time horizons or immediate spending needs to reallocate capital from stocks to bonds.

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Bond yields surpass stocks for first time since 2003

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Stocks closed mixed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining, while the Dow fell, indicating differing investor sentiment amid rising rate hike expectations. The likelihood of a 2026 rate cut has decreased to about 5%, while the chance of a hike has increased to nearly 22% due to ongoing inflation. Additionally, rising volatility at record highs has historically signaled potential market pullbacks, prompting caution among investors.

- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains, while the Dow experienced a decline, indicating mixed investor sentiment amidst increasing rate hike expectations.  
- The likelihood of a 2026 rate cut has fallen to approximately 5%, while the probability of a rate hike has increased to nearly 22% due to ongoing inflation concerns.  
- Rising volatility at record highs typically signals potential market pullbacks, prompting caution among investors.

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Stocks end mixed as Fed hike odds rise sharply

Stocks have not capitalized on the Federal Reserve's more cautious stance. Following a decrease in the Consumer Price Index inflation data, the S&P 500 saw an increase in value. The stock market is reacting tepidly to the Federal Reserve's less aggressive outlook.

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Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter?

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Analysts Making Largest Increases in Quarterly EPS Estimates for S&P 500 in 5 Years

The traditional investment strategy of "Sell in May and stay away" has proven to be less effective in recent years. Historically, investors were advised to reduce their market exposure after April and return in the fall. However, recent S&P 500 data indicates that this seasonal trend has shifted, suggesting that the strategy may no longer be beneficial.

- The phrase “Sell in May and stay away” suggests reducing investments after April, returning later in the year.  
- Recent trends indicate that this strategy has become less effective, with historical patterns of the S&P 500 showing significant changes across different market eras.  
- Current analysis reflects that the seasonal performance for stocks during summer months requires reconsideration based on updated market conditions.

'Sell in May' has been a bad strategy this century: Chart of the day

What's going on here?Overall market participation has been roughly cut in half since late March. In the 34 trading days since the market bottom, $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) has not once traded more shares than its previous 20-day average.This is now the longest streak of low relative-volume trading in the S&amp;P 500 since at least 2008.

The forward S&amp;P 500 earnings yield is typically higher than the 10year U.S. treasury yield in most periods, reflecting a positive equity risk premium. As of this morning, this is no longer the case, with the 10-year U.S. treasury yield of 4.54% now higher than the forward S&amp;P earnings yield of 4.50% (inverse of S&amp;P500 2026 P/E of 22.2x) for the first time since early 2024, and prior to that the 2000 dot com bubble. This is likely triggering today’s equity weakness as 10-year treasury yields surge.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.Here's a full recap:1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&amp;P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.3. $CME(CME.US) CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $Cerebras(CBRS.US). The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.0M, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.0M, $Intel(INTC.US) with 999K, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 829K, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 528K, $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) with 499K, $Netflix(NFLX.US) with 494K, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 451K, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 436K.6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.7. $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US), which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $Micron Tech(MU.US) also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.8. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&amp;P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&amp;P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.11. $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: &#34;You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof.&#34;WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit

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Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500, Dow fall as chip stocks drop, Wall Street weighs CPI inflation print

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The whole internet is hyping: Musk is kind-hearted, SpaceX is reserving 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors. This narrative is completely wrong from start to finish. It's not the conclusion that's wrong, it's the framework. The essence of IPO allocation: who sets the price, who takes the shares, let's first clarify a basic logic. IPO allocation is essentially a distribution of pricing power. Institutions get shares, obtaining the arbitrage right to &#34;buy at a low price and sell in the secondary market.&#34; Retail investors get shares, usually the leftovers after institutions have picked. In US IPO conventions, retail investors only get 5%-10%. Why? Because underwriters need institutions to &#34;discover the price&#34;...

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Daily Update, 5/19/2026

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How major US stock indexes fared Monday 5/18/2026

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