Oracle hit by another bombshell?! Research reports overturn AI narrative, risks facing US stocks in February.

Research institutions (TDC) have reported that Oracle may conduct large-scale layoffs to free up cash flow for AI data center expansion, and some banks have shown caution towards its financing. This event will not only affect one company; it marks a shift in AI investment from the "storytelling and market share grabbing" phase to the "return and balance sheet" phase. This has raised the "floor" of U.S. stock volatility in February, and the market has begun to reassess the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments, especially the financing costs of high-capital-expenditure companies.

If banks become cautious about financing AI projects, it will lead to higher capital costs for companies, thereby compressing valuation multiples.

Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed as Fed Chair, and the controversy over his confirmation process has increased uncertainty about the policy path, pushing up risk premiums.

$Oracle(ORCL.US) 

Currently in a pullback state, it is crucial to hold the key support zone at $160. If it holds, there is room for a rebound, with a target price around $193. If it breaks below, it will trigger more risk-control stop-losses.

Major Indices

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) Key defense line at 687

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) Defense line at 618

Gold & Silver

There will be a normal rebound after the plunge, but expectations should not be too high.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) 

Although the uptrend remains, a large bearish candle appeared last Friday, suggesting heavy trapped positions above. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering, and avoid blindly chasing highs.

The market performed smoothly in January, but the backdrop in February is unfavorable, and the trend may fall short of expectations. It is recommended to control cash flow and positions, and avoid depleting principal by chasing highs. In a market with increased volatility, select stocks with solid fundamentals and good trends for short-term or steady operations.

The Oracle incident is a warning sign for the AI bubble in U.S. stocks. In February, the market entered a volatile period of "separating the wheat from the chaff." Focus on the gains and losses of key support levels and maintain flexibility in positions.