Trump-Xi summit + NVDA H200 China one-day round trip

🚨 US said yes. China said no. NVDA hit an all-time high then gave it all back in 24 hours. Here's what happened.

Washington cleared H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms: Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com. 75,000 unit cap per buyer. 25% fee attached. Jensen Huang literally flew to Beijing with Trump for this.

NVDA hit an all-time high Thursday. 📈

Then Trump confirmed Friday: China "chose not to" buy. Beijing wants to build its own chips. NVDA dropped 4%. 📉

Classic. The market priced in hope. Reality showed up the next morning.

Here's what people are completely missing. Nvidia's OWN guidance assumes zero China recovery. Zero. Analysts are modelling USD 3.5-4 billion in China H200 upside that Nvidia itself is not counting on. When you own NVDA, China is a bonus. The base business — Blackwell, US hyperscalers, data center revenue up 70%-plus year-on-year — does not need China.

The summit also produced real stuff: Boeing gets a 200-jet order (first large-scale Chinese government order in nearly a decade), USD 17 billion in annual US agricultural purchases locked in for three years, two new US-China bilateral trade bodies. Not nothing.

But on chips: US said yes. China said not yet. The gap is the 25% revenue share requirement and the hardware-routing-through-US-territory condition. Those are not terms Beijing accepts easily.

My read: this gets resolved in the next 12-18 months when China's domestic chips hit a ceiling and hyperscalers need Nvidia badly enough to push back on Beijing's pause guidance. Huawei Ascend is improving but still one to two generations behind H100 in real-world inference workloads.

Bottom line: do not chase NVDA on China headlines. The core thesis does not need China to work. If China eventually comes back, that is a gift on top of an already strong position. 🚨

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