Tonight, $Space Exploration Tech(SPCX.US) goes public. There are several key milestones worth watching:

On 6.12, the listing day, 4.2% of the float will be released;

On 7.7, Nasdaq gave SPCX the green light to join the Nasdaq 100 just 15 working days after listing, which will bring passive buying from index funds;

In early August, after the Q2 earnings report, a lock-up release of 7% occurs. If the stock price exceeds 30% above 135 at that time, an additional 3.5% will be released, totaling a maximum release of 10.5% of the float;

In early November, after the Q3 earnings report, another 10% lock-up is released;

There might be a surge after the listing tonight, but this doesn't reflect the fundamentals; it's more about the low float premium. The subsequent two rounds of lock-up releases will involve 2~3 times the number of shares in the IPO float. So, before the lock-up releases, it might be more like a game of greater fool theory.