Morgan Stanley Maintains Buy Rating on ASML with €1,930 Target Price

Summary

Morgan Stanley analyst Lee Simpson maintained a Buy rating on ASML, raising the price target to €1,930 Tip Ranks. This follows a strong Q2 where revenue hit €9.3 billion and management raised 2026 guidance to €43-45 billion, driven by relentless EUV demand for AI chips AnueSec+ 2.

Impact Analysis

Morgan Stanley is essentially telling us to look past the 2026 supply chain noise and focus on the ‘super optimistic’ 2028 capacity targets Motley Fool+ 2. While the market fixates on the 20% revenue exposure to China and export restrictions, MS is doubling down on ASML’s monopoly in EUV lithography Motley Fool. The interesting part isn’t just the Q2 beat, but the fact that management is already prepping capacity for 2027-2028 based on ‘very strong’ order intake . While Jefferies remains a lone voice of caution on valuation with a €1,560 target, the consensus—led by MS and Goldman’s €2,000 call—is that the AI-driven demand for advanced logic and memory is structural, not cyclical AnueSec+ 2. I’d read this as a signal that the ‘beat-and-raise’ pattern is likely to persist as customers scramble for capacity. The trade here is simple: if you believe the AI infrastructure cycle has legs into 2027, ASML remains the ultimate toll-keeper regardless of short-term geopolitical headwinds Motley Fool+ 2.