According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Haitong International released a research report stating that among the eight key industries tracked in January 2025, four maintained positive growth while four experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth include catering, condiments, frozen foods, and soft drinks; the industries with single-digit declines include mid-to-high-end liquor, dairy products, and beer; while mass-market and below liquor saw double-digit declines. Compared to last month, five industries experienced a slowdown in growth, while three saw improvements. Despite the boost from the Spring Festival, the high base from last year and the shift in consumer spending towards travel, tourism, and entertainment have squeezed essential consumption represented by food and beverages.
<h2>Haitong International's main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
Mid-to-high-end liquor: In January, the domestic mid-to-high-end liquor industry revenue was 51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.8%. As the New Year and Spring Festival approached, consumption of mid-to-high-end liquor continued to improve month-on-month, but remained sluggish compared to the same months last year. Improved demand and manufacturers controlling supply have led to a rebound in product prices, especially for top brands like Kweichow Moutai and WLY. In terms of inventory, most famous liquor brands are gradually reducing their stock, but due to a lack of confidence in sustained price increases, distributors still prioritize reducing inventory, minimizing payments, and limiting purchases. Liquor manufacturers face significant pressure on receivables, and negative revenue growth is expected to continue, with a potential widening of the decline in February.
Mass-market and below liquor: In January, the domestic mass-market and below liquor industry revenue was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.4%. Starting from February 2024, there has been continuous negative growth for 12 months. The Spring Festival stocking has relatively little impact on mass-market and below liquor products, and currently, merchants are still focused on reducing inventory and preserving cash.
Compared to mid-to-high-end products, distributors face less inventory pressure. However, due to weaker brand power and channel strength, the pressure on receivables is greater, and the revenue decline is also larger than that of mid-to-high-end liquor companies.
Beer: In January, the domestic beer industry revenue was 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%.
During this year's Spring Festival, travel and dining activities exceeded the same period last year. Additionally, the national average temperature in January was 1-2°C higher than the same period last year, providing a strong boost for beer consumption in on-premise channels. Looking back at 2024, the beer industry experienced a low single-digit decline in sales and a slowdown in structural upgrades. Thanks to the marginal improvement in the catering and retail markets during the Spring Festival, we expect the decline in beer industry sales in January to narrow, while prices continue to maintain a stable upward trend.
Condiments: In January, the domestic condiment industry revenue was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
Demand during the year-end stocking period for condiments was robust, and the sales performance of various brands met expectations. Demand from the catering sector during the Spring Festival was impressive, with the holiday occurring earlier than last year, thus maintaining the industry's growth rate at a level comparable to December. Consumer demand remained relatively stable, but competition was fierce.
Dairy products: In January, the domestic dairy product industry revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.2%.
Sales during the Spring Festival were relatively flat, remaining basically the same or slightly lower than last year, in line with market expectations. Major manufacturers experienced low single-digit declines in shipments, actively controlling channel inventory. Last year's Spring Festival saw faster shipments than sales, leading to prolonged inventory reduction after the holiday. This year, leading manufacturers have reasonably adjusted their shipment targets, resulting in healthy channel inventory
Frozen Food: In January, the domestic frozen food industry revenue was 14.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%
The peak season for stocking up for the Spring Festival arrived earlier than last year, with an increase in growth in December, but the demand growth in Q1 2025 is under pressure. During the Spring Festival, the demand for traditional frozen products was relatively weak, while the demand for prepared dishes performed well. Since Q4 2024, the promotional efforts of various manufacturers for frozen products during the online shopping festival have increased, leading to a decline in ex-factory prices.
Soft Drinks: In January, the domestic soft drink industry revenue was 92.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%
The soft drink industry performed relatively flat against last year's high base, recording low single-digit growth. During the Spring Festival, product performance showed differentiation; large-pack products suitable for group drinking scenarios and with high cost-performance ratios sold well, while gift box products performed weakly. There was also differentiation among categories, with tea and juice performing well, while packaged water was relatively weak.
Dining: In January, the total revenue of domestic listed dining companies was 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%
During the Spring Festival, multiple chain dining brands experienced relatively weak table turnover rates and queuing situations, and dining demand during the holiday period is expected to weaken year-on-year.
Risk Warning: Economic growth lower than expected, slow revenue growth, food safety issues

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Haitong International released a research report stating that despite the impact of the Spring Festival, essential consumption still faces pressure. In January 2025, among the 8 key industries, 4 showed positive growth and 4 showed negative growth. The revenue of mid-range and high-end liquor declined by 6.8% year-on-year, while the revenue of mass-market and lower liquor fell by 21.4%. The beer industry saw a slight revenue decline of 1.6%. Residents' consumption focus has shifted to discretionary spending, putting pressure on food and beverages

Haitong International: Consumer staples remain under pressure in the short term