According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Securities released a research report stating that since March, when beer entered a low base period, the beer industry has accelerated its volume growth month-on-month in April, entering a peak stocking season, validating previous views. Among them, Budweiser (01879) has continued to cede market share in regions such as Guangdong due to management changes and damage to its traditionally advantageous nightlife channels. China Resources Beer (00291) benefited from competitors' adjustments, with its Heineken and Zhujiang Brewery (002461.SZ) 97 Pure Draft performing better than expected since 2025. Yanjing Brewery (000729.SZ) U8 continues to maintain strong growth momentum, driving the company's profitability improvement. Its first national soda flagship product, Best, is further penetrating the catering market through a &#34;beer + soda&#34; market layout.
In beverages, Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) is about to enter an intensive catalytic period for its whiskey business as a second growth curve. In May, the 50ML Bailede 22 mini liquor has already been launched in Miniso stores in Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangdong, and the subsequent launch of the Laizhou circulation version is expected to further catalyze growth. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) has launched its &#34;Fruit Tea&#34; priced at 5 yuan, focusing on sugary tea, which is expected to surpass the growth path of hydration products.
<h2>Dongfang Securities' main views are as follows:</h2>
Macroeconomic Data Update
The growth rate of retail sales in the tobacco and beverage categories has slowed. In April 2025, the total retail sales, catering revenue, retail sales of tobacco and alcohol, and retail sales of beverages changed year-on-year by 5.1%, 5.2%, 4.0%, and 2.9%, respectively. According to the financial data released for April, the domestic M2 monthly year-on-year growth was 8.0%, with the social financing scale for the month at 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, while the social financing stock maintained a growth rate of 9%.
Baijiu Wholesale Price Data
As of May 23, 2025, according to Wind and today's liquor price data, the wholesale prices of original box Feitian Moutai and loose bottle Feitian Moutai reached approximately 2,135 yuan and 2,060 yuan, respectively, showing a slight decrease from the previous week; the wholesale price of Pu'er 5 is 950 yuan, unchanged from the previous week; Guojiao 1573 is 855 yuan, down from the previous week. In terms of major sub-high-end products, the wholesale prices of Dream Blue M6+, Qinghua 30, Crystal Sword, Taste Shede, Shui Jing Fang Jingtai, and Jiugui Hongtan remained stable. As of May 23, the wholesale prices of Dream Blue M6+, Qinghua 30, Crystal Sword, Taste Shede, Shui Jing Fang Jingtai, and Jiugui Hongtan reached approximately 550, 755, 400, 360, 510, and 240 yuan/500ml, respectively.
Beer Volume and Price Data
In April 2025, domestic beer production increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and accelerated compared to March; the cumulative decline from January to April was 0.6%. The average import price of barley in China continued to decline year-on-year, with the average import price in April 2025 being 254 USD/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The overall trend of barley import prices is still showing a year-on-year downward trend.
As of the week ending May 16, 2025, the average ex-factory price of corrugated paper in China was approximately 2,594 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. As of the week ending May 17, 2025, the continuous settlement price of glass futures reached 1,032 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decline of 28%. The aluminum prices in the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Market showed a downward trend, with the average price of aluminum in the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Market being approximately 20,154 yuan/ton as of the week ending May 17, a year-on-year decrease of 2%
Dairy Price Data
Domestic fresh milk prices remain stable, while the prices of milk powder and cheese have shown relatively stable low growth. As of May 15, 2025, the average price of fresh milk in major domestic production areas is approximately 3.07 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. According to GDT data, as of May 20, 2025, the average winning bid prices for whole milk powder and skim milk powder are 4,332 and 2,817 USD/ton, respectively, down 1.0% and 0.4% compared to two weeks ago; on May 20, 2025, the average price of cheese is 5,007 USD/ton, a decrease of 9.3% compared to two weeks ago. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of May 16, 2025, the retail prices of milk and yogurt are 12.15 yuan/liter and 15.79 yuan/liter, respectively, down 0.08% and up 0.06% compared to a week ago.
Recommended Sectors and Stocks: In the beverage sector, focus on the beverage and beer sectors entering the stocking and investment peak season
Beer: Recommend Yanjing Brewery (000729.SZ, Buy) for its strong growth, improved profitability from state-owned enterprise reforms, and the new national soda single product layout of &#34;beer + soda,&#34; with profit improvements expected to exceed expectations; Beverages: Recommend Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ, Overweight) for its traditional cocktail and flavor business expected to recover beyond market expectations, and the second growth curve of whiskey facing intensive catalysts. Recommend Eastroc Beverage (605499.SH, Buy) for its stable growth of major products, the second curve of hydration showing high growth, and the new product &#34;Fruit Tea&#34; expected to surpass the hydration growth curve.
Risk Warning
The pace of consumption recovery may be slower than expected, regional economic growth may slow down, and there are risks of food safety incidents

002461

02939

00291

605499

000729

Dongfang Securities released a research report indicating that since March, the beer industry has entered a low base period, with a rapid increase in volume in April, entering the peak stocking season. Budweiser has seen a decline in market share due to management changes and damage to its nightlife channels; China Resources Beer and Zhujiang Brewery have benefited from competitors' adjustments. Yanjing Brewery continues to grow strongly, launching new products to penetrate the market. In the beverage sector, BaiRun Co., Ltd. and Eastroc Beverage have also performed actively in new product launches. Macroeconomic data shows a decline in retail sales growth

Zhitong

ZHUJIANG BREWERY

SANDMARTIN RTS

CHINA RES BEER

EASTROC BEVERAGE

Yanjing Brewery

DFZQ

Moutai

MNSO

BAIRUN CORPORATION

SCSF

Dongfang Securities: Beverage and beer enter the stocking peak season, focus on new category catalysts