According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that L4 level autonomous driving is showing positive changes in multiple scenarios. Among them, Robotaxi is benefiting from factors such as reduced vehicle costs and expanded operational areas, with single-vehicle gross margins continuously improving; autonomous driving technology is demonstrating cost reduction and efficiency enhancement capabilities in various scenarios such as express delivery, mining, and ports, initiating large-scale applications. The firm believes that under the above trends, various links in the industrial chain are expected to accelerate technology research and development and product launches, and the automotive intelligence industrial chain is likely to benefit. The firm suggests focusing on the following investment themes: 1) Fleet operations: With the continuous iteration of autonomous driving technology, fleet operators are expected to be the first to capture industry increments and realize performance elasticity; 2) Leading component suppliers for intelligent driving; 3) OEMs with advanced research and development progress in intelligent driving.
<h2>CITIC Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
Robotaxi: Reduced vehicle costs lead to significant improvement in single-vehicle gross margins, global layout gradually opens
The Robotaxi market has vast potential, and the firm estimates that the domestic market size for Robotaxi will reach approximately 300 billion yuan by 2030. On the policy side, cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou have implemented new policies this year to further encourage the landing application of Robotaxi. Among them, the &#34;Guangzhou Intelligent Connected Vehicle Innovation Development Regulations,&#34; which will be implemented by the end of February 2025, proposes that Guangzhou will gradually and orderly promote the construction of pilot areas for mixed human and autonomous driving throughout the city. Looking at leading companies, Pony AI's seventh-generation Robotaxi is built on cost-effective models, with the cost of related autonomous driving kits decreasing by 70% compared to the previous generation, which is expected to significantly improve single-vehicle gross margins and enhance the willingness of related companies to deploy vehicles. According to Pony AI's performance communication meeting, the company plans to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to a thousand units by the end of this year. On the other hand, taxi pricing in Europe and the United States is significantly higher than in China, and single-vehicle models are expected to be implemented more quickly. According to Waymo's official website, the company's Robotaxi weekly orders have increased to 250,000 orders in early May this year (up 400% year-on-year), accelerating commercialization. According to Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings communication meeting, Tesla plans to start Robotaxi operations in Austin in June this year, which is expected to lead technological changes in the industry.
Robovan: Commercialization progress is most advanced in urban open road scenarios, leading companies are accelerating volume
Robovan is currently primarily applied in the express delivery industry and is gradually penetrating into fresh supermarkets, pharmaceutical cold chains, and more. According to the &#34;Forecast of Incremental Output Value of Integrated Intelligent Connected Vehicle Industry (2025/2030)&#34; compiled by the China Society of Automotive Engineers and other institutions, the incremental output value of urban last-mile delivery and urban logistics delivery in China is expected to reach 97.7 billion and 141.6 billion yuan respectively by 2030. From the perspective of scenario attributes, Robovan belongs to low-speed, cargo-carrying scenarios, where the technical difficulty is low in open road scenarios, and it is expected to achieve large-scale applications first. On the policy side, the &#34;Action Plan for Large-Scale Equipment Renewal in Transportation&#34; released by the Ministry of Transport and 13 other ministries in June 2024 proposes to encourage enterprises to use new energy unmanned delivery vehicles on a large scale in compliant areas. Leading companies are accelerating the acquisition of road rights, and according to the official website of New Stoneware, the company has obtained public road rights in over 100 cities
From the application effect perspective, according to the official website of Jiushi Intelligent, the company's Robovan can achieve over 50% reduction in operating costs for customers. In May of this year, Jiushi Intelligent launched the E6 model specifically for lightweight and scattered goods, with a further reduced price, its bare vehicle price set at 19,800 yuan, and the FSD monthly subscription price only 1,800 yuan. By the end of 2024, Jiushi Intelligent has over 10,000 orders on hand, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 3,000 units, serving over 600 customers; in Q1 2025, the company's new orders increased by more than four times year-on-year.
Robotruck: The most clearly defined landing scenario for unmanned demand, with continuous improvement in operational efficiency
Robotruck primarily targets mining, ports, and other landing scenarios, where the working environment is harsh and there is a serious aging trend, necessitating the empowerment of autonomous driving technology. Among these, the safety hazards in mining scenarios are significant, and the country is continuously promoting unmanned operations in mining. In April 2024, seven departments, including the National Mine Safety Administration, jointly issued the &#34;Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Intelligent Construction of Mines and Promoting Mine Safety Development,&#34; proposing that by 2026, the replacement rate of intelligent equipment or robots in hazardous and heavy-duty positions in coal mines and non-coal mines should not be less than 30% and 20%, respectively. Currently, leading companies have achieved 24/7 regular unmanned operations in some mining areas, with single-vehicle efficiency reaching up to 110% of manual driving. According to Cyber Auto data, by December 2024, the penetration rate of unmanned mining trucks among newly added vehicles in open-pit mines has approached 10%, with commercialization accelerating. Autonomous driving in ports is also continuously penetrating; according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of December 2024, China has built 52 automated terminals. According to Jingwei Hirain's announcement, in 2024, the company's high-level autonomous driving business achieved revenue of 65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 431.6%.
Risk Factors:
The promotion speed of intelligent driving technology is lower than expected; the policy support for smart vehicles is lower than expected; the decline in intelligent driving costs is not as expected; incidents of malicious events related to intelligent driving may occur

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PONY

CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that L4 level autonomous driving technology has made positive progress in multiple scenarios, particularly with Robotaxi benefiting from reduced costs and expanded operational areas, leading to continuous improvement in per-vehicle gross profit. It is expected that by 2030, the domestic Robotaxi market size will reach 300 billion yuan. The firm recommends paying attention to fleet operations, intelligent driving component suppliers, and leading OEMs in research and development progress. Policy support and technological iteration will accelerate the development of the automotive intelligence industry chain

- CITIC Securities reports positive developments in L4 autonomous driving across various scenarios, particularly benefiting Robotaxi through reduced vehicle costs and expanded operational areas.  
- The firm anticipates accelerated technology development and product launches in the automotive intelligence supply chain, suggesting investment focus on fleet operations, leading component suppliers, and advanced manufacturers.  
- The report highlights significant market potential for Robotaxi, with an expected domestic market size of approximately 300 billion yuan by 2030, driven by supportive policies and advancements in autonomous technology.

Zhitong

CITIC Securities: The singularity of autonomous driving has arrived, and commercialization is accelerating