According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that this week, the price of Moutai has stabilized and rebounded, which may improve the sentiment in the liquor sector. Additionally, Yanghe (002304.SZ) has new leadership, and JGJC (000799.SZ) is collaborating with Pang Donglai to explore new consumption scenarios for liquor. Due to short-term demand fluctuations, it is expected that the liquor sector will see a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in Q2 2025. However, leading liquor companies are striving to maintain price stability, while small and medium-sized liquor companies are actively adapting to consumption trends, exploring solutions in products, channels, and brands. It is recommended to pay attention to layout opportunities after the industry's adjustment. In the consumer goods sector, this week, Weidong launched new products at Sam's Club, the traditional channels in the snack sector remain stable, and membership supermarket channels are growing rapidly, with new products expected to be launched continuously in H2 2025. The pet self-owned brands are experiencing good growth, and the overall impact of tariffs on the overseas side is controllable, with increased production capacity in overseas factories expected to drive growth. China Merchants Securities recommends returning to the performance main line in July while also focusing on valuation switching opportunities for high-growth categories in the second half of the year.
<h2>Original text as follows:</h2>
1. Core Company Tracking: Small and Medium-Sized Liquor Companies Explore Solutions, Food and Pets Continue to Innovate and Expand Channels
Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ): Clear-headed and pragmatic, actively embracing new consumption trends. After a series of adjustments from 2024 to Q2 2025, the company's market inventory has significantly improved, and the prices of the Guojiao series products are stable. The company will continue to firmly maintain product prices and channel profit levels. At the same time, the company is increasing its efforts to explore sinking markets, aiming to reach four million terminal points in the next five years, with precise investment in expenses to strengthen direct channel capabilities to terminals and consumers. Additionally, the company continues to promote low-alcohol technology research and product reserves. Currently, the 38-degree Guojiao has prominent advantages, and the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 has been successfully developed and will be launched in the market at an appropriate time. Low-alcohol liquors such as 16-degree and 6-degree are under development. The trend towards medium and low alcohol content is evident in North China, Tianjin, and East China, and in the future, the 38-degree Guojiao will cover the entire country, fully tapping into consumers' potential demand.
Yanghe (002304.SZ): New leadership appointed, the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan + light bottle liquor reconstructs growth momentum. According to the company's official website and announcements, Mr. Gu Yu has been appointed as the Party Secretary of Yanghe Co., Ltd. The new leadership is expected to promote active adjustments in the company's organizational structure and enhance operational dynamics. In H1 2025, the company continues to promote product renewal, with the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan launched in March, and the base liquor aging extended from three years to over three years. In June, high-line light bottle liquor products (three-year aged base liquor) were launched, and the company is collaborating with JD.com to jointly promote domestic market expansion, leveraging data empowerment and all-channel strategies to accurately reach young consumer groups and strengthen the company's fundamentals. The company has begun to clear channels and reports ahead of the industry, and current channel inventory has decreased. Considering the new leadership's appointment and the company's excellent genes in mass liquor sales, there are still opportunities for momentum enhancement in the future.
JGJC (000799.SZ): Deep channel adjustments, collaboration with Pang Donglai is expected to create new growth poles. The company's shareholders' meeting stated that in 2025, it will focus on strengthening four key areas. 1) In terms of branding, the company will focus on offline marketing communication and product linkage around three major systems: education, weddings, and sports in 2025. 2) In terms of products, the company will gradually launch low-end (reviving the Xiangquan brand, with production capacity gradually released in 2025), low-alcohol (preparations for 33-degree, 28-degree, 21-degree, and 18-degree products have been made, with products expected to be launched in July), and small liquor strategies
3) In terms of channels, the company will comprehensively launch a mine-sweeping operation in 2025 to enhance market operation efficiency. The overall opening data from 2024 to Q1 2025 has maintained growth, leading to a gradual reduction in inventory. At the same time, the company has removed multiple non-best-selling products from the system to further optimize the structure. 4) In terms of systems, 2025 will focus on improving supply chain efficiency and conducting systematic global management. In addition, on June 29, Pang Donglai revealed that the co-branded product &#34;JGJC·Freedom Love&#34; with JGJC is about to be released, which is an active exploration by JGJC in the current dramatic transformation of liquor consumption and is expected to bring incremental revenue to the company in the future.
New Dairy (002946.SZ): Cost dividends drive profit release, and the group empowers sub-brand operational trends to rise. The company's low-temperature milk saw double-digit growth in April-May, while room temperature milk remained flat, with the trend continuing in June. Current milk prices are still at the bottom range, and the turning point may be delayed until the end of the year. With cost dividends, the company's profit release capability will be stronger. Meanwhile, in terms of sub-brands, Vipshop Sam's Club has new products launched, expected to achieve double-digit growth; Summer Jin has introduced low-temperature products and expanded beyond the province, empowering the subsidiary's healthy development and enhancing platform capabilities. The company insists on driving low-temperature business, focusing on DTC channels, and aims to enhance profit margins, with the annual profit margin improvement target expected to exceed expectations.
Lihigh Food (300973.SZ): Stable growth in sales, with good performance in cream and membership supermarket channels. 1) In the membership supermarket channel, three new products, including cheese sausage bread, were launched in 2025, performing better than the same period last year. The company has over 10 SKUs in the membership supermarket channel, and the new product launch rhythm is normal, with good sales of new products. 2) The scale of cream reached 500 million yuan in 2024, and 36% of new cream products are expected to be launched in H2 2025 (positioned more high-end), with stable profitability expected. 3) New frozen baking products (such as frozen pizza bases) are gradually entering chain restaurants and hotel systems, expected to become key products contributing to revenue growth.
Jinzai Food (003000.SZ): In the stage of operational adjustment, the goal is primarily stability. Traditional channels and snack channels are overall stable, with limited growth. The snack channel has entered a survival of the fittest phase, where SKU output efficiency has become the core assessment standard. The e-commerce channel is in a state of negative growth, and the overall costs in new media channels are high, making profitability difficult. Currently, the operational strategy is cautious; the overall e-commerce remains profitable but will not expand significantly. The new product, soft-boiled eggs, is mainly sold online, and consideration will begin in Q2 2025 to distribute to other channels. Additionally, cooperation in the membership supermarket channel is under negotiation, and other new specifications, price ranges, and flavors (such as fish products, bean products, konjac products, etc.) are expected to be launched in H2 2025.
Youyou Food (603697.SH): Bright sales performance, smooth new product launches. 1) On the channel side, the company's new products &#34;Light Enjoyment Time&#34; and &#34;Sour Soup Double Crisp&#34; in the Sam's channel have received good sales feedback since the beginning of the year (with &#34;Sour Soup Double Crisp&#34; expected to achieve monthly sales of over ten million). The new boneless duck feet launched in 2024 have stable monthly sales of around thirty million, and overall revenue in the Sam's channel is growing rapidly. The volume discount channel has accelerated cooperation with Wancheng and Snack Busy this year, expecting to double growth. E-commerce and traditional supermarket channels are relatively stable. 2) On the new product launch side, chicken feet tendons and boneless chicken feet are gradually promoted from online to offline multi-channels, with multiple new products set to be promoted in H2 2025
3) On the cost side, the fluctuation of raw material prices is controllable.
Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ): The growth of its own brand continues, with slight impacts from exports and accelerated growth of overseas factories. By region: 1) The domestic market performs overall steadily, with growth maintaining at a healthy level, and the own brand saw over 30% growth during the 618 shopping festival. 2) Overseas factories have sufficient orders, with the capacity utilization rate of the U.S. factory improving after technical upgrades, expected to achieve over 30% growth. 3) In terms of exports, the impact of tariffs has hindered exports to the U.S., which have basically stagnated since mid-April, expected to result in a revenue loss of about tens of millions, partially compensated by orders shifting to Cambodia. Regarding own brands, Wanpi and Leading are growing rapidly, Zeal has made slight adjustments, and the Xiaojindun series performed as expected. In the second half of the year, Wanpi will launch the &#34;Precision Feeding Series&#34; to drive growth through more specialized and age-segmented staple products.
Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ): Focus on snacks and staple foods, paying attention to the pace of capacity release in New Zealand. 1) In the domestic market: Jueyan maintains an advantage in the snack field while accelerating its extension into the staple food track. Haoshijia has also launched freeze-dried dog food and freeze-dried snacks, focusing on low allergen and high nutrition, with its own brand seeing over 30% growth during the 618 shopping festival. 2) The pace of capacity release in New Zealand is expected to have an annual capacity utilization rate of 10-20%, with plans to import staple foods from New Zealand in the second half of the year, produced by its own factory, although progress has been slightly delayed due to objective factors. 3) The overseas market is expected to maintain stable growth this year, with a single-digit year-on-year increase.
Yuanfei Pet (001222.SZ): Own brand efforts, stable overseas profitability. 1) Domestically, breaking through with snacks, scaling staple foods, and creating profits with pet supplies. Currently, Pikapu has achieved good results in breaking through with snacks, with staple foods being a key focus in the future. This year, the target for its own brand is over 100 million yuan (with Pikapu accounting for 60-70% or more), aiming to achieve a scale of 300-500 million yuan in three years through product differentiation (freeze-dried/baked/origin) and channel innovation (Douyin self-broadcasting) for high growth. 2) Overseas, relying on Cambodian capacity to maintain cost advantages, currently, overseas orders are minimally affected by tariffs, with U.S. tariffs borne by customers, and the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong covering fluctuations in raw material costs. In the short term, the domestic market is in an expansion phase, requiring investment in brand promotion, while overseas business contributes profits to support domestic operations.
Anjui Foods (02648): H-shares listed and traded. On July 4, Anjui Foods announced that, with the approval of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company’s issuance of 39,994,700 H-shares (before exercising the over-allotment option) will be listed and traded on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 4, 2025. Among them, 11,198,500 shares are for public offering in Hong Kong, accounting for approximately 30.00% of the total global offering; 27,796,200 shares are for international offering, accounting for approximately 70.00% of the total global offering. Based on an H-share price of HKD 60 per share, after deducting related underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses for the global offering, and assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised, the estimated net proceeds from the global offering will be approximately HKD 2.302 billion.
II. Investment Recommendations: Return to performance fundamentals and layout structural growth
This week, Moutai's wholesale price stabilized and rebounded, which may improve sentiment in the liquor sector. Additionally, Yanghe has appointed new leadership, and JGJC is exploring new consumption scenarios in collaboration with Pang Donglai. Due to short-term demand fluctuations, it is expected that the liquor sector will see a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in Q2 2025. However, leading liquor companies are working hard to maintain price stability, while small and medium-sized enterprises are actively adapting to consumption trends, exploring breakthroughs in products (quality improvement), channels (mass traffic entry), and brands (innovation in marketing methods). It is recommended to pay attention to layout opportunities after the industry's adjustment.
In the consumer goods sector, this week, Weidong launched new products at Sam's Club, while the traditional channels in the snack sector remained stable overall, and membership supermarket channels experienced rapid growth. New products will continue to be launched in H2 2025. The pet self-branding sector showed good growth, with the overall impact of tariffs on the overseas side being controllable, and the increase in overseas factory capacity is expected to drive growth. The implementation of maternity subsidies for dairy products is expected to improve the milk powder industry.
CITIC Securities suggests returning to the performance main line in July while also focusing on valuation switching opportunities for high-growth categories in the second half of the year. The three main lines are: 1) Growth tracks under changing consumption trends, where pullbacks and valuation switching provide good layout opportunities. 2) Recovery of the catering chain, recommending structural growth. 3) Traditional consumption to capitalize on leading companies. After the sharp decline in liquor, it is advisable to layout leading enterprises with a safe margin of valuation, while waiting for demand recovery in dairy products

002304

600519

000799

China Merchants Securities released a research report, suggesting to focus on performance themes in July and pay attention to valuation switching opportunities for high-growth categories in the second half of the year. The report pointed out that Moutai's wholesale prices have rebounded, the sentiment in the liquor sector has improved, Yanghe has appointed new leadership, and JGJC is exploring new consumption scenarios in collaboration with Pang Donglai. It is expected that the liquor sector will see a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in Q2 2025, but leading liquor companies are maintaining price stability, while small and medium-sized liquor companies are actively responding to consumption trends. The consumer goods and pet brands continue to grow, and China Merchants Securities recommends paying attention to layout opportunities after industry corrections

Zhitong

Yanghe

Moutai

JGJC

China Merchants Securities: In July, food and beverage returns to the performance main line, focusing on the valuation switching opportunities of high-growth categories continuing in the second half of the year