Guotai Junan Securities: The rise of the affordable intelligent driving era, domestic companies are expected to gain more market share and investment opportunities

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the high-speed NOA and urban NOA for in-vehicle vision are driving the complete configuration of in-vehicle cameras. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic replacement manufacturers with advantages in the in-vehicle vision field, especially leading companies as important domestic manufacturers in the in-vehicle CIS field. Their automotive-grade image sensors have been fully integrated into the intelligent driving systems of leading automotive companies, covering core scenarios such as in-cabin DMS driver monitoring, ADAS assisted driving, and electronic rearview mirrors. They possess strong technical capabilities and rapid performance growth, with significant development potential. Domestic companies are continuously maturing in technologies such as in-vehicle image sensors, with products covering various application scenarios, demonstrating strong market competitiveness and development potential. They are expected to gain more market share and investment opportunities against the backdrop of the rapid development of the intelligent driving in-vehicle vision market. Guojin Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: With the combined efforts of policy, cost, and technology, the penetration rate of urban NOA is expected to rise to 15%, while the penetration rate of high-speed NOA is expected to exceed 60%. On the policy front, national legislation and local regulations are being implemented intensively to build a regulatory framework for urban NOA and promote the commercialization of advanced intelligent driving. The State Council has included the revision of the "Road Traffic Safety Law" in its legislative plan, and local regulations have been introduced in places like Beijing and Wuhan to establish a legal foundation for the commercialization of L3-level and above advanced autonomous driving technologies. On the cost front, the rapid decline in the costs of core hardware such as LiDAR and computing chips, combined with the improvement of automotive companies' self-research capabilities, is driving the intelligent driving functions to penetrate from high-end models to the mass market. The price of LiDAR has dropped from over 200,000 yuan in 2017 to below 2,000 yuan by 2025, and the costs of computing chips have also significantly decreased. On the technology front, the optimization of BEV + Transformer algorithms and the maturity of multi-sensor fusion solutions are gradually improving the functions of urban NOA and high-speed NOA. The quantity and price of in-vehicle cameras are both rising, accelerating domestic replacement. As a core component of the perception layer, in-vehicle cameras are experiencing simultaneous upgrades in quantity and performance. The number has jumped from less than 5 to over 11, with continuous iterations in the performance of front-view, surround-view, and other cameras, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of visual perception. The 8-megapixel high-resolution camera combined with HDR high dynamic range technology is becoming a mainstream configuration, significantly improving visual perception accuracy under complex lighting conditions. Meanwhile, the domestic supply chain is accelerating breakthroughs in key technical barriers. SmartSens is achieving domestic replacement of core components through automotive-grade CIS image sensors (SC530AT/SC360AT), and its M1 series ISP chips integrate dark light noise reduction, 4-frame HDR synthesis, and LFS line flash suppression technologies. Breakthroughs in technology and innovations in business models are deeply promoting the "equalization" process of intelligent driving technology penetrating the mass market. Intense competition in the supply chain, local manufacturers are rising to reshape the market landscape. The global market for in-vehicle camera modules is expected to grow from nearly $6 billion in 2023 to $13.68 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.69%. The shipment volume of in-vehicle cameras in China has increased from 42.63 million units in 2020 to 72 million units in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.1%. By 2025, the shipment volume of in-vehicle cameras in China is expected to exceed 100 million units, with a market size reaching 23.7 billion yuan The overseas market for automotive camera modules is dominated by Tier 1 companies such as OmniVision and Onsemi, but domestic manufacturers like Sunny Optical and SmartSens are rapidly penetrating the market through cost-effectiveness and localized services. SmartSens leads the smart security sector, with a market share of 48.2% in 2023, gradually stabilizing its position in the global market. SmartSens's smartphone CIS business surged by 269% year-on-year, achieving high-end substitution. In the automotive CIS sensor sector, Onsemi, Sony, and OmniVision account for over 90% of the global market share, with SmartSens ranking fourth globally and second domestically with an 8% share. The automotive lens field presents a "one strong, many strong" pattern, with Sunny Optical holding over 38% market share, while Lianchuang Electronics and OFILM focus on the high-value-added ADAS market, with the localization rate continuously improving. Risk Warning Intensified competition in the automotive industry, regulatory progress falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected advancements in autonomous driving technology, and product prices declining more than expected