CICC: High-end PCB demand leapfrogging, value reconstruction of computing power base

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that high overseas computing power demand is driving both the volume and price of PCBs to rise, rapidly expanding the market size. It is expected that the AI PCB market size will reach USD 5.6 billion and USD 10 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Although domestic PCB manufacturers are accelerating production expansion, the efficiency of releasing high-end capacity will still lag behind the growth rate of demand, and the supply-demand gap will continue to exist. Additionally, the iteration and upgrade of new processes are expected to bring new market demand increments. It is recommended to pay attention to suppliers that are likely to benefit from the significant PCB/CCL demand increment driven by this round of AI. CICC's main viewpoints are as follows: Upgrading AI computing hardware architecture drives rapid growth in high-end HDI and high-layer board demand CICC believes that global computing power demand is experiencing systematic expansion, with GPUs and ASICs undergoing significant volume increases. At the same time, the application of high-frequency and high-speed materials (such as M9 and quartz fabric) and the design of advanced high-layer boards are expected to significantly enhance the value of single boards, driving both volume and price increases in the PCB industry. By sorting out the demand for overseas computing power chips (GPU + ASIC) and network communication equipment (switches + optical modules), it is estimated that the total AI-related PCB market size will reach USD 5.6 billion and USD 10 billion in 2025 and 2026. PCB capacity is accelerating expansion, but the efficiency of capacity release still lags behind AI demand growth Benefiting from the strong demand for computing power infrastructure from AI, the PCB and CCL markets continue to be highly prosperous, with core suppliers in the industry chain accelerating production expansion. CICC has sorted through the production expansion announcements of seven listed companies in A-shares, which collectively announced investments of approximately RMB 32 billion for PCB capacity expansion, with products gradually upgrading towards high-end. However, due to the long ramp-up cycle for high-end product yields and the immature localization of the Southeast Asian supply chain, the efficiency of capacity release may lag behind the growth rate of demand, and the supply-demand gap will still exist in the medium term. What potential technological innovations are there in the future under continuous iteration of new processes? As AI computing hardware evolves towards high density and high bandwidth, how to reduce dielectric constant (dk) and dielectric loss (df) becomes key to breaking through transmission bottlenecks. In the future, AI is expected to continuously iterate on PCB process technology paths, which will be reflected in structural integration (CoWoP, substrate-based), functional upgrades (orthogonal backplane replacing copper connections), and material breakthroughs (M9, PTFE, quartz fabric, etc.). Related targets Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), Shenzhen South Circuit (002916.SZ), FASTPRINT (002436.SZ), Pegatron (002938.SZ), Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ), Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ), WUS (002463.SZ), SYE (688183.SH), Kinwong (603228.SH), Founder Technology (600601.SH), Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ), etc. Risk factors AI demand and computing power infrastructure demand falling short of expectations, operational risks in overseas factory construction, and new technologies and processes not being implemented as expected