China's Robot Industry Chain: Upstream Earns More Than Downstream, 2027 Will Be the "Year of Large-Scale Commercialization"

In the global humanoid robot competition, the Chinese supply chain is demonstrating unique advantages in cost and speed. On August 26, according to the latest industry report released by HSBC, the commercialization process of Chinese humanoid robot manufacturers is accelerating beyond their overseas competitors. Despite Tesla lowering its production targets for the Optimus robot in July, raising concerns about the prospects for humanoid robots, the report believes that the market is overlooking the progress made by Chinese companies in this field. The report points out that major Chinese robot manufacturers such as UBTECH and Yushu Technology plan to produce more than 1,000 robots by 2025, while most overseas companies' products are still in the training phase. The advantages of Chinese companies mainly come from four aspects: closer to the supply chain, more competitive product pricing, support from large orders from state-owned enterprises, and government policy support. The bank expects that as labor costs rise, robot costs decrease, and efficiency improves, the return on investment for humanoid robots will significantly shorten from the current 7 years to about 2 years by 2027, marking the beginning of large-scale commercial deployment. It is expected that the cost of humanoid robots will drop to about 100,000 RMB per unit. The Real Winners: Upstream Core Component Suppliers This report presents a viewpoint different from market consensus: even if the humanoid robot market grows rapidly, it does not necessarily translate into substantial profits for robot manufacturers. Analysts point out that, referencing the development trajectory of the Chinese industrial robot market, although sales doubled from 2017 to 2024, manufacturers' profitability deteriorated due to fierce competition. Compared to downstream manufacturers, upstream component suppliers such as Sanhua, SHUANGHUAN COMPANY, and Hengli Hydraulic have a more optimistic profit outlook. The report believes their advantages lie in three aspects: higher market concentration, standardized products that can achieve cost reductions through scale production, and relatively low operating expenses. Historical experience in the industrial robot market has proven this judgment. Component suppliers can achieve a net profit margin advantage of 10-15%, mainly due to better economies of scale, relatively narrow R&D focus, and limited product configuration requirements. The report expects that from 2025 to 2035, the annual market size for humanoid robot actuators, sensors, and software will reach approximately 68 billion, 28 billion, and 17 billion RMB, respectively. The Chinese Supply Chain Demonstrates Unique Advantages The reason domestic robot manufacturers can seize the opportunity is mainly due to multiple advantages. First is the supply chain advantage, as China supplies most of the humanoid robot components globally, giving domestic manufacturers an edge in procurement costs and product development time Secondly, there is price competitiveness. Taking the latest general-purpose humanoid robot released by Yushu Technology as an example, its retail price is only $5,600 per unit, while Tesla's Optimus is priced between $25,000 and $30,000. This significant price difference helps shorten the return cycle and improve user acceptance. Government procurement orders also provide important support for industry development. On July 13, China Mobile procured humanoid robots from Agibot and Unitree with a total value of 124 million yuan. In addition, from 2023 to date, central and local governments have introduced a series of supportive policies, with the Shenzhen government announcing a subsidy of 4.5 billion yuan to support AI and robotics research and development. This article is from the WeChat public account "Hard AI". For more cutting-edge AI news, please click here.