According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongxing Securities released a research report stating that in August, the average price of pigs continued to decline, falling below 14 yuan/kg, and continued to drop in September. As of September 19, the national average price of market pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, reaching the lowest level in three years. On the policy front, on September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium in Beijing on the regulation of pig production capacity. This meeting conveyed the government's determination to &#34;reduce production capacity and stabilize pig prices,&#34; and the regulation targets have entered a comprehensive implementation phase. Capacity regulation guided by policy will remain the core theme for some time to come, with expectations for the elimination of backward capacity increasing. High-quality capacity is expected to maintain profitability due to cost advantages and will see better profit elasticity after the regulation is completed.
<h2>The main points of Dongxing Securities are as follows:</h2>
Industry Supply and Demand Performance: August Pig Prices Continued to Decline
In August 2025, the average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork were 33.63 yuan/kg, 14.35 yuan/kg, and 24.98 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.87%, -3.77%, and -1.52%. The average price of pigs continued to decline in August, falling below 14 yuan/kg, and continued to drop in September. As of September 19, the national average price of market pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, reaching the lowest level in three years.
Supply side: In early August, group farms reduced volume while maintaining prices, and the second breeding trial entered the market, keeping pig prices relatively prosperous. However, the supply side gradually returned to normal, with individual farmers concentrating on market sales, leading to a significant price drop and considerable supply pressure in August. Demand side: High temperatures in August still suppressed consumption, with weak sales of dressed pigs, and limited boosts from the back-to-school season at the end of the month, continuing the trend of oversupply.
Trends in capacity changes: Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the number of breeding sows in July was 40.42 million, a slight decrease of 10,000 from the previous month. From third-party data, the sample data of breeding sows from Yongyi increased by 0.07% in August, while the sample data from Ganglian decreased by 0.80%, showing an overall trend of oscillating elimination. The price of piglets has seen a cliff-like drop, and sales of piglets have fallen into losses.
Joint Meeting of Two Ministries on Capacity Regulation, Policy Control Strengthened Again
On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on pig production capacity regulation, where clear regulatory indicators for breeding stock and market weight were proposed, and supporting measures related to funding and environmental protection were tightened comprehensively. This meeting conveyed the government's determination to &#34;reduce production capacity and stabilize pig prices,&#34; and the regulation targets have entered a comprehensive implementation phase. The short-term impact on the pig market is bearish, while the long-term outlook is bullish. In the short term, it will increase the industry's phase supply, causing downward pressure on pig prices, and the pressure on farming entities with cost disadvantages will increase. In the medium to long term, it is conducive to the elimination of backward capacity and the high-quality development of the pig market, with expectations for industry capacity elimination increasing, and pig prices are expected to see an upward turning point in 2026.
Market Cycle Forecast
Capacity regulation guided by policy will remain the core theme for some time to come, with expectations for the elimination of backward capacity increasing. High-quality capacity is expected to maintain profitability due to cost advantages and will see better profit elasticity after the regulation is completed. In terms of valuation, the industry index PB has retreated after reaching a high, remaining below the historical median, indicating that the sector's valuation has a safety margin. It is recommended to focus on leading breeding stocks with high performance realization, such as MUYUAN (002714.SZ), and other related stocks including WENS (300498.SZ), Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH)
Sales Data of Listed Companies in August
Average selling price decreased month-on-month. MUYUAN, WENS, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope achieved average selling prices for live pigs in August of 13.51, 13.90, 13.75, and 13.54 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23%.
Slaughter volume rebounded month-on-month. MUYUAN (commercial pigs), WENS, New Hope, and Zhengbang Technology achieved sales volumes of live pigs in August of 700, 325, 134, and 67 million heads, respectively, with month-on-month changes of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and -3.67%.
Average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weights for MUYUAN, WENS, and New Hope in August were 125.29, 109.95, and 95.07 kg, respectively. Among the companies that have announced monthly slaughter weights, except for Dongrui, which saw a significant increase in average weight due to a decrease in piglet sales in August, the average slaughter weights of other companies have shown a steady decline, continuing the industry's trend of reduced slaughter weight.
Risk Warning
Risks of price fluctuations in livestock and poultry, expansion of slaughter volume by listed companies falling short of expectations, risks of animal diseases, and companies' cost control not meeting expectations, etc

605296

000876

002714

300498

Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report indicating that pig prices continued to decline in August, with the average price dropping below 14 yuan/kg, and further falling to 12.82 yuan/kg in September, the lowest level in three years. In terms of policy, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on September 16, emphasizing their determination to "reduce production capacity and stabilize pig prices," with regulatory targets entering a comprehensive implementation phase. Regarding supply and demand, the market faced significant supply pressure in August, and demand was weak due to high temperatures. Capacity regulation remains the core focus for the future, with high-quality capacity expected to maintain profitability

Zhitong

Shennong Group

New Hope

MUYUAN

WENS

Dongxing Securities: Pig prices continue to decline, and policy regulation is further strengthened