Goldman Sachs expects rising oil prices to push up inflation in Asian emerging markets by an average of 0.7 percentage points

Goldman Sachs research report indicates that the situation in the Middle East has caused the price of Brent crude oil to rise by approximately $10 per barrel, which is expected to increase inflation in Asian emerging markets by an average of about 0.7 percentage points, with the Philippines and Thailand being the most sensitive, while the increase in China is more moderate.

The bank expects that the real local GDP growth in the region will be dragged down by an average of about 0.5 percentage points, with Singapore and Taiwan having the largest risk exposure. At the same time, it is anticipated that the current account surplus of almost all economies will deteriorate, especially in Thailand and Singapore; the fiscal impact is less clear, as some governments are mitigating the price transmission effect through subsidies or state-owned enterprises, shifting the burden to sovereign balance sheets