"Big Banks" JP Morgan: The negative turning point in the mainland photovoltaic industry against involution has appeared as expected, and regulatory authorities help stabilize mid-term prices

JP Morgan's research report indicates that the expected negative turn in the mainland solar industry's anti-involution actions has occurred, with the spot price of polysilicon dropping from over RMB 50 per kilogram in February to 48 yuan in early March. The bank believes this is due to the unclear definition of "production costs" in the Price Law, leading some manufacturers to destock at lower prices under cash flow pressure.

On the policy front, the mainland's National Two Sessions has prioritized fair competition, and authorities may curb the issue of overcapacity through capacity control, standard setting, and price enforcement. If the price regulatory department uses the industry average cost as a benchmark, polysilicon prices may stabilize in the medium term at RMB 47 to 50 per kilogram, but further declines in short-term spot prices cannot be ruled out.

The bank believes that regardless of the policy path, it will promote industry consolidation, just at different times. In the polysilicon industry, the bank prefers Daqo Energy (DQ.US) and GCL TECH (03800.HK), with the former's stock price potentially being more resilient due to its robust net cash of USD 2.3 billion at the end of last year