On Tuesday, the three major A-share indices experienced a volatile decline.
As of the close on March 17, the SSE Composite Index fell by 0.85%, closing at 4049.91 points, breaching the 60-day moving average; the STAR 50 Index dropped by 2.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.87%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.29%. From the market perspective, the computing hardware industry chain and superhard materials concept saw significant declines, while the power generation equipment, chemical, and agriculture sectors were among the biggest losers, with newly listed stocks and large financial sectors performing strongly against the trend.
In response to the market trends, reporters interviewed several public funds after the market closed. Most public funds believe that the rise in geopolitical risks has triggered global risk aversion, along with profit-taking pressure accumulated in previously hot sectors, which are the main reasons for Tuesday's market correction. Before the geopolitical uncertainties are resolved, the A-shares may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.
&#34;If the Shanghai Composite Index can quickly recover the 60-day moving average on Wednesday and close above that line, then Tuesday's movement would be seen as a false short signal, and there remains a possibility for the index to stabilize near the 60-day line,&#34; said an institutional analyst. &#34;However, if the Shanghai Composite Index only makes a slight rebound on Wednesday and fails to recover the 60-day line, we need to be cautious of a downward test of the lower boundary of the large trading range.&#34;
Increased Risk Aversion Among Funds
Liu Chong, a senior market research analyst at Cinda Australia Fund, analyzed that the recent tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, raising concerns about global inflation and delaying expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has heightened risk aversion among funds, causing capital to exit the market rapidly. At the same time, sectors that had previously seen significant gains have accumulated a large amount of profit, leading funds to flow out of high-concept stocks and into defensive sectors like banks.
&#34;Under the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, global risk assets are exhibiting high volatility characteristics, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions remain central to the current global market narrative. Asset pricing reflects the economic stagflation and tightening liquidity expectations triggered by rising oil prices,&#34; Liu stated.
Bosera Fund also believes that the market is gradually pricing in the prolonged duration of the U.S.-Iran conflict, with oil prices likely to remain high, driving a macro repricing chain of &#34;supply-side shocks—resurgence of inflation—passive tightening of financial conditions,&#34; which suppresses factors affecting corporate earnings, liquidity, and risk appetite in the equity market. Caution is advised regarding market volatility in the short term, with a recommendation for balanced allocation and appropriate attention to the defensive attributes of dividend assets.
In addition to energy, Shangyin Fund pointed out that the ongoing obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to other issues such as food security, complicating its impact on different sectors.
Tan Zhiqi, a fund manager at Jin Xin Fund, further analyzed that the NVIDIA GTC conference, dubbed the &#34;Spring Festival Gala of AI,&#34; opened on March 16, where the next-generation AI chip &#34;Feynman&#34; is expected to be officially launched in 2028. The technological iteration driven by this will create long-term benefits, but this positive signal has been overshadowed by macro-level concerns in the market. &#34;Due to the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation worries, market risk appetite has significantly declined, with funds turning extremely pragmatic; combined with the substantial cumulative gains of the optical module index since the beginning of the year, there is pressure for profit-taking, leading to a significant correction in related sectors on that day.&#34;
Grasping Industry Certainty Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Looking ahead, most public funds believe that the A-shares may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term until geopolitical uncertainties are resolved.
In the short term, Liu Chong believes that due to the pressure on global risk appetite and the ongoing uncertainty of geopolitical tensions, A-shares may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, with the positive policies at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the policy orientation of &#34;seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency&#34; in 2026, the economy is expected to continue its recovery. As we enter the traditional peak season for economic activities, the improving price environment will still be worth paying attention to for A-share profit recovery. Additionally, as the disclosure period for annual reports and quarterly reports of listed companies approaches, the impact of performance factors on the market is expected to increase, making related high-performing main lines worth focusing on.
In terms of allocation strategies, public institutions also show a consensus leaning towards certainty.
Tan Zhiming believes that the market will return to performance fundamentals, with performance certainty and profit realization likely becoming the core main line. He suggests that investors can strategically invest in technology growth sectors during dips to seize long-term investment opportunities brought about by industrial upgrades.
Shangyin Fund recommends focusing on grasping industry certainty amid macroeconomic uncertainty, with a key allocation to sectors relatively independent of the current war situation, such as the upward shift in energy price centers, enhancement of energy resource security strategies, domestic demand, innovative drugs, and self-controlled sectors like semiconductors.
Nuoan Fund suggests focusing on insurance, brokerage, and electricity. From the perspective of short-term prosperity signals, price increases remain a key focus in the first quarter. The Israel-Hamas conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are expected to temporarily raise the oil price center, driving up the costs of many cyclical products. In this narrative, there are abundant structural opportunities, particularly around chemicals, oil and gas, and materials sectors.
Pengyang Fund indicates that the market's short-term risk appetite is declining, and the strategy leans towards avoiding overheated high-valuation sectors while closely monitoring low-priced quality targets and certain industrial trends. Currently, there are no large beta opportunities in the macro environment, and it is necessary to wait for new policies to take effect or for existing policies to exert force; after this round of volatility, technology remains the core long-term layout direction, with the pullback in the AI sector providing buying opportunities. As the market gradually prices in the war and high oil prices, it is advisable to stay away from thematic stocks that surge due to geopolitical catalysts

510050

510760

510330

On Tuesday, the three major A-share indices fluctuated and fell, with the SSE Composite Index dropping 0.85% and falling below the 60-day moving average. The market correction was mainly due to rising geopolitical risks and profit-taking pressure. Analysts believe that if the Shanghai Composite Index can quickly recover the 60-day moving average, it may stabilize; otherwise, caution is needed against the risk of further declines. Risk aversion sentiment is rising, with funds flowing out of sectors that had previously seen significant gains and shifting towards defensive sectors. Bosera Fund pointed out that the market needs to be cautious about volatility and recommends balanced allocation, focusing on the defensive attributes of dividend-type assets

腾讯新闻 - 财经

ChinaAMC China 50 ETF

Guotai SSE Composite ETF

ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF

Harvest SZSE SME-ChiNext Composite 300 ETF

SSE Index

Bosera SSE 50 Index ETF

SSE 50

China Universal SSE Composite ETF

Fortune SG SSE 180 Value ETF

Huaan CSI 300 ETF

E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiating Fund

Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF

E Fund CNI Value 100 ETF

Fullgoal SSE Composite ETF

CSI 300

The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and fell below the 60-day moving average. When will A-shares stabilize in the short term?