The A-shares staged a defense of the 4000-point mark in the afternoon, with mysterious funds stepping in urgently!
On March 19, influenced by geopolitical factors and international markets, the A-share index weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1.5% in the afternoon, hitting a low of 4000.96 points, just a step away from the 4000-point threshold. The Shenzhen Component Index fell over 2%, and the ChiNext Index dropped more than 1%. Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductor chips, military industry, and consumer electronics saw significant declines, with nearly 4,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets falling.
Mysterious funds suddenly entered the market to buy
Notably, after the Shanghai Composite Index touched 4000.96 points at 1:50 PM, mysterious funds suddenly entered the market to buy, causing the diversified finance, brokerage, and banking sectors to surge, which is significant at the critical 4000-point level.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OlZwO_QHhoQ7sroMPzQgECUHwA1xsZhlrg2D6_K4Fc_94AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OlZwO_QHhoQ7sroMPzQgECUHwA1xsZhlrg2D6_K4Fc_94AA/641"/>
At 1:52 PM, strong funds aggressively intervened in China National Petroleum Capital, with trading volume sharply increasing, leading to a direct limit-up for China National Petroleum Capital. Subsequently, COFCO Capital, which was previously underwater, also surged to its limit, rising as much as 9.7%. Stocks in the diversified finance sector, such as Aijian Group, Ruida Futures, and Wukuang Capital, also surged.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9tWWWRoghqUzscurluu-haEF4BZEzOYx-l8SrB4PIC-cAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O9tWWWRoghqUzscurluu-haEF4BZEzOYx-l8SrB4PIC-cAA/641"/>
The banking sector in A-shares saw partial gains, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rising over 2%, and Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank following suit, with Agricultural Bank of China seeing both volume and price increase.
In addition, brokerages saw unusual surges, with First Capital, Harbin Investment Group, and Tonghuashun all climbing.
However, near the close, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below the 4000-point mark, hitting a low of 3994.17 points, but quickly rebounded to once again stand above the 4000-point threshold. By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4006.55 points, down 1.39%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13901.57 points, down 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3309.10 points, down 1.11%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 64.9 billion compared to the previous trading day.
Market performance one month after the Two Sessions in the past decade
Historical statistics show that in the past 10 years, the A-shares have performed strongly in the month following the Two Sessions. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 500 both recorded increases 6 times and decreases 4 times, with a 60% probability of rising; the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 had 5 increases, while the Shenzhen Component Index had 4 increases.
From the average rise and fall of the indices over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 500 all achieved increases in the month following the Two Sessions, with respective increases of 0.29%, 0.51%, 0.25%, and 1.16%
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O39AKghiJ-C35tM2r72XHgw8UkrQBWhx2j7huAHKyTJScAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O39AKghiJ-C35tM2r72XHgw8UkrQBWhx2j7huAHKyTJScAA/641"/>
From an industry perspective, in the past decade, among the 31 first-level industries of Shenwan, 24 had an average increase in the month following the Two Sessions. Social services ranked first with an average increase of 3.9%; closely followed by beauty and personal care with an average increase of 3.65%; industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, real estate, and media saw increases exceeding 2%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OsEh3uTZ2sKIiylZCEapSX3myLceQgB8vfZj93mbQLBxkAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OsEh3uTZ2sKIiylZCEapSX3myLceQgB8vfZj93mbQLBxkAA/641"/>
What is the future trend of A-shares?
Regarding the future trend of A-shares, Industrial Securities pointed out that as the situation evolves, the core contradictions in market pricing are undergoing two major changes: first, the core of trading is shifting from &#34;intensity increase&#34; to &#34;repeated negotiations&#34;; second, the impact of high oil prices on the economy and policy orientation is beginning to be priced in. After confirming these two changes, as the market gradually becomes less responsive to negative news and the certainty advantage of domestic policies becomes prominent, A-shares are expected to become more &#34;self-directed.&#34;
CITIC Securities believes that at the index level, the space for valuation recovery is limited, and the rebound in corporate profit margins is key to the next phase of the A-share bull market. The disruption of the global supply chain once again provides an opportunity to verify the pricing power of China's advantageous manufacturing sector; from a style perspective, the Middle East conflict is a catalyst for style switching this year. In the context of rising global costs and weakening financial conditions, low valuations and pricing power are the two most important factors; from an industrial trend perspective, code inflation and physical scarcity manifest in China as an increase in the pricing power of advantageous manufacturing, with disruptive innovation in AI accelerating and global energy supply chain disruptions reinforcing this trend.
Guojin Securities pointed out that although A-shares will face pressure from overall valuation digestion in the next phase, the elasticity at the index level may be limited, but structural differentiation remains the key to solving future market problems: for cyclical stocks and manufacturing sectors with global competitive advantages, the current pricing still offers a high cost-performance ratio compared to their profitability/capacity value, and valuations remain within the allocation range

000001

510210

000905

561550

510510

512500

510500

510580

The A-shares experienced a defense battle at the 4000-point mark in the afternoon, influenced by geopolitical factors and international markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4000 points. Mysterious funds entered the market at a critical moment, boosting the diversified finance, brokerage, and banking sectors, driving the market rebound. Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points again at the end of trading, it ultimately closed at 4006.55 points, down 1.39%. Historical data shows that in the past decade, A-shares have performed strongly in the month following the Two Sessions, with a 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 500 rising

腾讯新闻 - 财经

SSE Index

Fullgoal SSE Composite ETF

CSI 500

Huatai-PB CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF

GF CSI 500 ETF

ChinaAMC CSI 500 ETF

China Southern CSI 500 ETF

E Fund CSI 500 ETF

The A-shares staged a defense battle at 4000 points in the afternoon, with mysterious funds stepping in to suddenly buy up diversified finance, brokerage, and banking sectors! What will be the subsequent trend of A-shares? Historical statistical data from the past ten years shows this trend