Investment Insights -
Intraday Focus
Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the issues facing the U.S. economy are not severe enough to be termed stagflation, the uncertainty surrounding inflation prospects has clearly intensified against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East. European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel indicated that if the Iran conflict leads to further price pressures, the European Central Bank will need to consider raising interest rates next month. Historically, major central banks tend to prioritize suppressing inflation expectations over economic growth when faced with stagflation. Meanwhile, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts, making the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy equally noteworthy. In the short term, as long as control over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, this suggests that the U.S. dollar's strength may not truly reverse in the near term. Gold, on the other hand, is being pressured by delayed interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical risk impacts, and a strong dollar.
U.S. Dollar Index: Watch 101.30 above, 98.0 below
The U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply by 1.07% on Thursday (March 19), breaking through the 100 mark and hitting a low of 98.9. Notably, the 1.07% decline is the largest in two months, highlighting an increased bearish sentiment towards the dollar. While this does not indicate an immediate reversal for the dollar, it is still a signal worth noting.
If the U.S. Dollar Index faces resistance at 101.30 during a rebound, the downward trend that has persisted since January 2025 is likely to continue, with subsequent tests expected at the 98.0 or even 95.0 levels. To reverse the downward trend, a decisive breakthrough above the 101.30 level is required.
U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983793080.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983793080.png"/>
Image source: tradingview
Support Levels: 99.0, 98.0, 95.0
Resistance Levels: 100.0, 101.30, 104.0
USD/JPY: Still likely to challenge 160.0, but volatility risks are increasing
The USD/JPY fell 1.35% on Thursday (March 19), hitting a low of 157.51. It is noteworthy that the USD/JPY faces a psychological barrier at 160.0. Although it cannot be ruled out that it may still challenge this resistance level in the short term, given the increasing volatility, investors are advised to remain cautious and focus on the gains and losses around the 160.0 level.
If the USD/JPY stabilizes at 157.0, it may still rebound to challenge the psychological barrier at 160.0. However, if the USD/JPY fails to effectively break through 160.0, caution is warranted as the upward trend since April 2025 may face a reversal
USD/JPY Daily Chart:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983937325.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983937325.png"/>
Image source: tradingview
Support levels: 157.0, 154.0, 152.0
Resistance levels: 160.0, 162.0, 164.0
AUD/USD: Holding steady at the 0.7 integer level
AUD/USD rose 0.91% on Thursday (March 19), reaching a high of 0.7109. Notably, AUD/USD has repeatedly tested the 0.7 integer level over the past month and a half. Sustained stability above this level indicates strong bullish sentiment.
If AUD/USD holds above 0.7000, it is expected to rebound and challenge levels of 0.7200 or even 0.7500. To reverse the upward trend, it would need to fall below the 0.6900 level. The time window to focus on is March 30.
AUD/USD Daily Chart:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983998072.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739983998072.png"/>
Image source: tradingview
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6900, 0.6750
Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7300, 0.7500
NVIDIA: Head and Shoulders pattern, focus on the 172.0 level
NVIDIA fell 1% on Thursday (March 19), marking three consecutive days of decline. Notably, the daily chart for NVIDIA shows a head and shoulders pattern. If it subsequently breaks below the neckline or even falls below the 172.0 level, it can be seen as the establishment of a downward trend.
If NVIDIA falls below 172.0, it is expected to test lower levels of 148.0 or even 135.0. To reverse the downward trend, it would need to effectively stabilize above the 180.0 level.
NVIDIA Daily Chart:
![](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20260320/17739984051889.png?
x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)
Image source: tradingview
Support levels: 172.0, 148.0, 135.0
Resistance levels: 180.0, 190.0, 200.0

601899

The US dollar index fell sharply by 1.07% due to bearish market sentiment, reaching 98.9, indicating an increased risk of stagflation. Although Powell stated that the economy is not in severe stagflation, geopolitical tensions are exacerbating inflation uncertainty. The European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates due to price pressures. The USD/JPY faces a psychological barrier at 160.0, with increased volatility, and investors need to remain cautious. In the short term, the strength of the US dollar is difficult to reverse, and gold is affected by multiple bearish factors

- The article discusses the uncertain inflation outlook in the U.S. despite the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on the economy not facing stagflation.  
- With rising tensions in the Middle East, the European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates if price pressures escalate, reflecting historical central bank responses to stagflation.  
- The article also highlights significant movements in currency values, including the U.S. dollar's decline and the Australian dollar's performance, while detailing key support and resistance levels for various currencies.

mitrade

Zijin Mining

SPDR Gold Shares

Agnico Eagle Mines

Kinross Gold

Gold.com

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

EFUND GOLD MI ETF

GLOBAL X Gold Explorers

Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 2X

SD-GOLD

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X

NVIDIA

EFUND GOLD MI-R

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

Invesco Db Precious Metals ETF

Us Gbl GLD & Met

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

A BOS USD MM-U

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 2X

Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF

ZHONGJIN GOLD

Abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust

iShares Gold Trust

ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF

A BOS USD MM-R

Sprott GLD Miners Etf

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

EFUND GOLD MI-U

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

Newmont

Stagflation risk rises! Dollar index, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NVIDIA technical analysis