CITIC Securities: The intensity of the disturbances from the US-Iran conflict exceeds market expectations, and it is anticipated that China's exports will continue to maintain a high level of prosperity

CITIC Securities research report indicates that the intensity of disturbances from the US-Iran conflict exceeds market expectations, and no definitive solution has been seen yet, which may lead to high oil prices persisting for a longer time. It is expected that China's exports will continue to maintain a high level of prosperity, with the US-Iran conflict presenting both demand-side headwinds and structural supply-side benefits for exports. The rise in traditional energy prices may drive an increase in demand for new energy products, and the export of the "new three items" is expected to become an important growth driver. However, in the short term, the temporary disruption of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to production cuts or shutdowns for some oil and chemical companies, and China's exports to Gulf countries may also temporarily decline