In 2025, data from global TOP20 multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) regarding the introduction of innovative drugs and technology platforms from China shows that the average total package amount reached USD 2.756 billion, with an average upfront payment of USD 236 million. In contrast, during the same period, the average total package for projects introduced by these MNCs from other regions worldwide was only USD 1.289 billion, with an average upfront payment of USD 153 million.
Based on this calculation, the total package amount paid by MNCs for Chinese innovative drugs is approximately 114% higher than that for other regions globally, with upfront payments being about 54% higher.
The above data indicates that the intrinsic value of Chinese innovative drugs is being reassessed and repriced by the international market, and their global competitiveness and asset scarcity can no longer be concealed.
01 Supply and Demand Vacuum Under the Patent Cliff
The willingness of MNCs to pay high prices for innovative assets is primarily driven by the impending patent cliff.
From 2025 to 2030, the global pharmaceutical industry will face a new wave of large-scale patent cliffs. According to GeneOnline, the total sales revenue of blockbuster drugs expiring during this period is approximately USD 236 billion, with nearly 70 bestselling drugs facing competition. Unlike the patent cliff in 2008, this time, biologics account for a larger proportion, and the market erosion model is more complex.
Foreign media GEN also listed in its November 2025 report that between 2026 and 2029, the annual sales revenue loss expected by original drug manufacturers for just 20 blockbuster drugs after patent expiration will reach USD 176.442 billion. Merck, BMS, and Pfizer are identified as the three companies most affected.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O62SBXUtusvc3TgQZ6zIz8o_SjV_CiKjHxalHaQZQSgCUAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O62SBXUtusvc3TgQZ6zIz8o_SjV_CiKjHxalHaQZQSgCUAA/641"/>
Figure 1: 20 &#34;blockbuster&#34; drugs facing patent cliffs from 2026 to 2029
Image source: GEN
For MNCs, this is a gap that must be filled, and there are only two ways to fill this void: one is through their own R&amp;D pipelines, and the other is through external acquisitions. Over the past decade, the internal R&amp;D return rates of large pharmaceutical companies have continued to decline, while the proportion of external procurement has been rising year by year. As all multinational pharmaceutical companies scramble to acquire assets, high-quality targets have become scarce, and prices have soared.
At this time, Chinese innovative drugs have entered the sight of MNCs.
China ranks among the top globally in the number and progress of R&amp;D pipelines in cutting-edge fields such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, cell therapy, PROTAC, and small nucleic acids. More importantly, China possesses the dual advantages of low cost and high efficiency. Liu Bowei, head of healthcare investment banking at JPMorgan Asia Pacific, shared a compelling case: a CFO of a large MNC once admitted that if the cost of procuring the same pipeline in China is only 30% to 40% of that in the United States, and they may achieve better results, they would undoubtedly choose China
The ultimate balance between cost and effect, China's pipeline has become a huge &#34;innovation arsenal&#34; that MNCs cannot ignore.
The changes on both the supply and demand sides have formed a perfect intersection in 2025. When the demand side is willing to pay a premium for scarce assets, and the supply side can offer truly competitive products, a trading boom is just a matter of time.
02 Value Reassessment Supported by Data
The rise in transaction amounts ultimately relies on data support. In recent years, with the disclosure of clinical data for Chinese innovative drugs, MNCs have gained a new reference framework for valuing Chinese assets.
In 2022, Kangfang Biotech licensed AK112 to Summit for a total transaction amount of up to $5 billion, setting a record for the overseas licensing of Chinese innovative drugs. In 2024, in the HARMONi-2 study, AK112 was compared head-to-head with K drug, showing mPFS of 11.14 months vs. 5.82 months, HR=0.51. It became the first drug in the world to defeat K drug in a Phase III head-to-head study.
In 2025, AK112 made headlines again at the ESMO annual meeting. The HARMONi-6 study showed that AK112 combined with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for squamous non-small cell lung cancer achieved mPFS of 11.14 months, compared to 6.9 months for the tremelimumab combined with chemotherapy group, with PFS HR=0.60 (p&lt;0.0001), an absolute difference of 4.24 months. Subgroups showed consistent benefits regardless of PD-L1 expression levels or liver metastasis. This marked AK112's second Phase III clinical trial defeating PD-1 therapy in head-to-head comparisons.
In January 2026, Summit confirmed that it had submitted the BLA application for AK112 to the FDA in Q4 2025. The market is also paying attention to the potential for a &#34;secondary BD&#34; for AK112, with analysts suggesting that Summit may bring in a large MNC with commercialization capabilities to complete the final leap in AK112's value.
Similarly, in the field of lung cancer, Kelun-Biotech's sac-TMT leveraged hard clinical data to drive global expansion. At the 2025 ESMO, the sac-TMT Phase III OptiTROP-Lung04 study was selected for the chairman's forum, becoming the first in the world to confirm that ADC shows significant OS benefits compared to platinum-based doublet chemotherapy in TKI-resistant EGFR mutation NSCLC. In November of the same year, OptiTROP-Lung05 reported further success: sac-TMT combined with K drug as first-line treatment for PD-L1 positive NSCLC achieved the primary endpoint of PFS, becoming the first Phase III study to achieve positive results for PD-(L) 1+ADC in first-line treatment of NSCLC.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OYJ52T58HHBtqCjXWdWhtH7da_1Dp2l2rvP7xCTB2eaRsAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OYJ52T58HHBtqCjXWdWhtH7da_1Dp2l2rvP7xCTB2eaRsAA/641"/>
Figure 2 Structure and Design Highlights of sac-TMT
Image source: Kelun-Biotech 2024 JPM Conference Presentation Materials
Based on this solid data, Kelun-Biotech reached a collaboration worth over $1 billion with Merck as early as 2022, with Merck responsible for the global development and commercialization of sac-TMT outside of Greater China. As of now, Merck has led more than a dozen global Phase III clinical studies covering multiple cancer types, including gastric cancer and urothelial carcinoma.
In addition, Baillie Tianheng's iza-bren (BL-B01D1) has also amazed the world. At the 2025 ESMO Annual Meeting, it announced the global first Phase III clinical results of the EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC drug BL-B01D1 for treating relapsed nasopharyngeal carcinoma: ORR reached 54.6%, vs. chemotherapy group 27.0%; mPFS 8.38 months, vs. chemotherapy group 4.34 months, with a 56% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death (HR=0.44). Previously, the data on EGFR mutation NSCLC in the later lines presented at WCLC was even more stunning: ORR reached 100%, mPFS exceeded 12 months.
Based on this, Baillie Tianheng reached a collaboration with BMS worth up to $8.4 billion by the end of 2023, setting a record for domestic ADCs going abroad. In October 2025, the global key registration clinical study IZABRIGHT-Breast 01 achieved a milestone, triggering the first $250 million near-term contingent payment under the collaboration agreement with BMS. This is the largest single milestone payment received for a single ADC asset in domestic innovative drug overseas transactions.
The above cases point to a fact: when the data produced by Chinese innovative drugs is sufficient to change clinical practice, MNCs are willing to pay a &#34;global premium&#34; for it. The core of value has shifted from the cost advantage of &#34;Made in China&#34; to the clinical breakthroughs brought by &#34;Chinese innovation.&#34;
03 From Product Licensing to Platform Going Global
Another noteworthy trend is that MNCs' positioning towards China is evolving from purchasing products to purchasing platforms and purchasing time.
Table 1 Global TOP20 Multinational Pharmaceutical Companies Acquiring Chinese Innovative Drugs and Technology Pipelines (Partial)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OdfkNceh5WPKE2qXqz5AdaaeJ0nrnh-TyOGxOP6iMBE3UAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OdfkNceh5WPKE2qXqz5AdaaeJ0nrnh-TyOGxOP6iMBE3UAA/641"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-SYnVMr825xuBxs4BKeSa3-FWwsrgaFiPJYfUXhNHbFYAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-SYnVMr825xuBxs4BKeSa3-FWwsrgaFiPJYfUXhNHbFYAA/641"/>
Note: Data statistics date 2025.1.1-2025.12.27
Data source: Pharma Intelligence Data, Public Information Compilation
The transactions between Yaoyou Pharmaceutical, Nona Bio, Jingtai Technology, and Baiaosaitu with Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Merck KGaA, etc., indicate that MNCs are not acquiring a mature product that has entered Phase III clinical trials, but rather a molecular platform with continuous output capability, or early pipelines incubated based on that platform.
For MNCs, the value of the platform lies in its replicability. A validated ADC, bispecific antibody, or AI drug discovery platform means the ability to continuously generate new molecules over the coming years. The value of this strategic reserve far exceeds that of a single drug.
At the same time, cases such as Innovent Biologics with Takeda, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with AstraZeneca, and 3SBio with Pfizer show that MNCs are focusing on late-stage pipelines that are close to market launch. For MNCs facing patent cliff pressures, introducing such assets can save years of R&amp;D time and quickly achieve market entry. The value of this &#34;time&#34; is directly reflected in the transaction price.
In addition to collaboration on platforms and timelines, another noteworthy change is the rise of the Co-Co (co-development, shared revenue) model.
Taking the transaction between Innovent Biologics and Takeda on October 21, 2025, as an example, some products adopt a typical Co-Co model, sharing costs and profits at a 40/60 ratio. Innovent not only gains short-term cash flow and equity investment support but also accumulates core capabilities in R&amp;D, registration, and commercialization through global collaboration.
Under this model, MNCs obtain development and commercialization rights in overseas markets, while Chinese companies retain local rights and deeply participate in global development. Its emergence indicates that leading Chinese pharmaceutical companies have gained stronger negotiating power, allowing them to secure more favorable cooperation structures, and it also reflects MNCs' recognition of these companies' global clinical and commercialization capabilities, willing to establish longer-term, deeper cooperative relationships.
04 Conclusion
Currently, the value of Chinese innovative drugs is being systematically reassessed based on specific pipeline data, clinical results, and platform capabilities. The reason MNCs are willing to pay higher prices is that they see verifiable clinical value and the platform capabilities that support continuous innovation. This shift in value perception provides a foundation for deeper adjustments in transaction structures and marks the evolution of Chinese pharmaceutical innovation from single product output to systemic capability output.
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References
[1] https://geneonline.news/2025-2030-drug-patent-cliff-research/
[2] https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/top-20-drugs-heading-for-the-patent-cliff-2026-2029/
[3] https://ir-upload.realxen.net/iis/6990/uploads/files/2024/20241125105558A012.pdf
[4] https://ir-upload.realxen.net/iis/6990/uploads/files/2025/20250822115307A019.pdf
[5] Guolian Securities Research Report, China Merchants Securities Research Report, Zhongtai Securities Research Report
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In 2025, data on transactions involving the introduction of innovative drugs and technology platforms from China by the world's top 20 multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) shows that the average total package amount reached USD 2.756 billion, with an average upfront payment of USD 236 million, which is approximately 114% and 54% higher than other regions globally. MNCs are willing to pay high prices for innovative assets mainly due to the impending patent cliff, with an estimated USD 236 billion worth of blockbuster drug patents set to expire by 2030. China's rapid R&D progress in areas such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapy, along with its advantages of low cost and high efficiency, has attracted the attention of MNCs

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