Every reporter: Xiao Ruidong Every editor: Zhao Yun
On March 26, the market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with the three major indices rising and then falling by over 1%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index dropping by over 2%. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.34%.
In terms of sectors, the power sector performed actively, lithium battery material stocks repeatedly strengthened, and the commercial aerospace concept saw partial gains. On the downside, the grid equipment concept weakened, and the optical fiber concept fluctuated downwards.
Over 4,400 stocks in the entire market fell. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 236.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.
After two consecutive days of rebound, A-shares adjusted with reduced volume today.
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The reasons are roughly twofold:
First, the &#34;oil rises, stocks fall&#34; seesaw effect, today it was oil prices that took the lead.
In the afternoon, both Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures strengthened.
According to reports, on Wednesday, both the U.S. and Iran made the latest statements, clarifying the situation further. Iran stated that the &#34;exchange of information&#34; with the U.S. through mediators is not negotiations; meanwhile, the White House insisted that U.S.-Iran negotiations &#34;are still ongoing.&#34;
Some believe that regardless of how many messages come out daily from this &#34;Rashomon&#34; of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as long as the conflict has not substantively ceased, the logic supporting rising oil prices remains intact. Market participants are expected to gradually become &#34;desensitized&#34; to the news, but it is difficult to completely ignore it.
As strategists from JP Morgan's market intelligence team stated, they have ended their previous tactical bearish rating on the stock market and shifted to a neutral stance. However, the bank still expects market volatility to further intensify.
Second, after consecutive rebounds, the market also needs to consolidate profit-taking in line with the trend.
It is not that the market &#34;cannot rise for three consecutive days,&#34; but when the objective resistance to rising is stronger than the downward pressure, adjustments will naturally occur. The &#34;two up, one down&#34; approach is usually acceptable to the market—however, if too much of the gains are given back, it will inevitably trigger new panic.
One viewpoint suggests that the &#34;general rebound&#34; triggered by short-term overselling can be seen as a &#34;benefit for all stocks,&#34; but for different sectors and individual stocks, how much of this benefit can actually be realized and when it will be completed is random.
The intensity and speed of the rebound determine that during this rising trend, sectors and individual stocks may form a new strong-weak structure.
Wind data shows that during the consecutive rebounds on Tuesday and Wednesday, the average stock price in the entire A-share market (from the lowest point) had a maximum increase of 5.85%.
Among nearly 5,500 stocks in the entire market, 3,531 had a maximum increase exceeding 5.85% during the same period.
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Only a little over 1,000 companies have rebounded more than 10% in the past two days.
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In this context, short-term funds need to implement a certain degree of “eliminating the weak and retaining the strong” to strive for more excess returns.
The market's adjustment after a general rebound is the process of funds reallocating and switching stocks.
In the medium to long term, the Shenwan Hongyuan strategy team believes that the fundamental basis for the upward trend in the A-share market has not changed. They stated that the rise in the oil price center may bring mild stagflation, but due to the low base of domestic inflation, coupled with the maturity of the policy framework for regulating structural economic issues, the upward cost pressure faced by A-shares will be significantly less than in historical extreme situations (2010-2011, 2021).
Additionally, the midstream manufacturing industry is still in a historically significant supply clearing cycle, and the growth rate of capacity formation in the second half of 2026 is expected to be lower than the growth rate of revenue. It is anticipated that the profitability of A-shares will effectively rebound in 2026, with cumulative profits rising year-on-year each quarter. The mid-term upward trend in A-shares has a fundamental basis.
&#34;The advantages of the Chinese economy are becoming more prominent, and the long-term positive trend of the Chinese capital market has not changed. Rapid changes in liquidity are not the norm for the A-share market, and some short-term issues have been overly interpreted as mid-term concerns. The short term may be the time of greatest pressure, while mid-term confidence should be firm, and patience should be maintained.&#34;
From today's sector performance, apart from the oil and gas sector, which led the gains following oil price trends, energy metals, batteries, and other lithium battery industry chain directions saw a pullback after a rise but still retained some gains.
Huaxin Securities stated that the core of the current Middle East geopolitical conflict lies in the reassessment of the &#34;security attributes&#34; of the energy system, reshaping the global energy allocation model and macro transmission paths, with countries' energy policies shifting towards &#34;self-control + diversified alternatives.&#34; Reflecting on A-shares, three major directions benefit: the demand center for new energy installations is shifting upward, the strategic position and profitability of energy storage are improving, and the grid and power equipment are entering an accelerated investment cycle.
In addition, the commercial aerospace concept saw some capital return in the afternoon, briefly turning positive.
In terms of news, SpaceX plans to submit its initial public offering prospectus to regulators later this week or next week. The company may aim to raise over $75 billion in the IPO, higher than the previously reported estimate of $50 billion, with the company's latest valuation at $1.25 trillion.
Daily Economic News

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On March 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,900 points again, with all three major indices dropping over 1%. The market turnover fell below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 236.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The main reasons include the impact of rising oil prices on the stock market and profit-taking adjustments after consecutive rebounds. Although JP Morgan has ended its bearish rating and shifted to neutral, it expects market volatility to intensify. In the short term, there may be changes in the strength and weakness structure among different sectors and individual stocks

腾讯新闻 - 财经

CSI 300

Tianhong CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

SSE Index

SSE 50

Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF

ChinaAMC China 50 ETF

Guotai SSE Composite ETF

What happened? In the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points again