<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OsHj-3Sr8bUN1maCRGf3Sx93oxuQEm5V_jFrjTcNXNgW0AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OsHj-3Sr8bUN1maCRGf3Sx93oxuQEm5V_jFrjTcNXNgW0AA/641"/>
Trump has extended the commitment not to attack Iranian energy facilities for another 10 days, stating that the extension is at Iran's request. However, later peace negotiation mediators indicated that Iran did not request an extension of the negotiation time.
<ol>
<li>The market is now in a very awkward state: every piece of news could be true or false.</li>
</ol>
The U.S. says: Negotiating
Iran says: Not negotiating
The media says: Possibly negotiating
In this situation, the market is no longer trading information but is trading uncertainty itself.
<ol>
<li>This news caused Brent crude oil to briefly drop below $100 (to a low of $97), but it quickly rebounded back to $100.</li>
</ol>
The &#34;100 dollars&#34; for Brent crude oil has become a &#34;lifeline.&#34;
Oil prices above $100 indicate a risk-off mode.
Oil prices below $100 indicate a risk-on mode.
In the medium term, the key is to look at one variable—whether oil prices can return below $100, which is a more important variable than interest rates.
<ol>
<li>The NASDAQ index has fallen over 10% from its highs, entering a correction zone, and the S&amp;P 500 index may follow suit.</li>
</ol>
Analysts are now focusing on the &#34;6475&#34; point (closing at 6477 points on Thursday), where there are protective positions from large institutions (JPM) and short-term funds (0DTE) defending—equivalent to the market's &#34;last layer of buffer.&#34; If this position holds, the market can still oscillate or even rebound; if it breaks, it may directly go to 6000 points.
Interestingly, today the market is testing these two points simultaneously: oil prices at $100 and the S&amp;P 500 index at 6475 points. Either oil prices stabilize above $100 while the S&amp;P 500 index breaks below 6475 points, or oil prices drop below $100 while the S&amp;P 500 index holds above 6475 points.
The current issue is not that the market is falling, but that the stock market has not fully believed in oil prices. If the oil market is correct, then the stock market has not yet had time to decline. (Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle)

603353

.NDX

Trump extends the commitment not to attack Iranian energy facilities by 10 days, but Iran has not requested an extension of the negotiation period, leading to doubts about the authenticity of the news in the market. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated sharply, having fallen below $100 before rebounding, becoming a key indicator of market risk. The NASDAQ index has fallen more than 10%, with analysts focusing on the support level of 6475 points; if it breaks below, it may further test 6000 points. The market has not fully believed in the trend of oil prices

- Trump has extended the commitment not to attack Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, claiming it is at Iran's request, but mediators state Iran made no such request.  
- The market is grappling with uncertainty as each piece of news could either be true or false, leading to significant volatility in oil prices, which briefly dipped below $100 but quickly rebounded.  
- The Nasdaq has fallen over 10%, and analysts are watching the S&P 500 at 6475 points; breakouts from these points could lead to significant market shifts, highlighting the disconnect between oil and stock market perceptions.

Has the grand decline begun?