As we enter late March, the A-share market is experiencing a critical emotional turning point. The geopolitical conflicts that previously disturbed the market are showing signs of easing, and global risk appetite is gradually recovering. The technology growth sector, which had been under pressure from external factors, is now facing an important rebound opportunity, especially the STAR 50 Index, which had previously declined to a new low for the year due to geopolitical conflicts and profit-taking. With the marginal improvement of core suppressive factors, its high elasticity is becoming evident, making it the preferred target for current market rebound speculation. Meanwhile, the performance certainty behind the STAR 50 has not changed with short-term fluctuations; the short-term oversold rebound resonates with the medium to long-term high prosperity value, making it worthy of investors' attention.
First, we need to review the reasons for the market's previous pullback: Following the unexpected explosion of domestic large models and the narrative of domestic AI substitution, the STAR 50 Index once performed strongly. However, this rapid rise based on expectations has buried the hidden worry of valuation bubbles, with many stocks experiencing significant short-term gains and accumulating substantial profit-taking. Entering March, geopolitical conflicts became the core variable disturbing global risk appetite. The tension in the Middle East led to high fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising more than 70% since the beginning of the year. This not only raised global inflation expectations but also reinforced the Federal Reserve's &#34;higher for longer&#34; interest rate stance. In this macro backdrop, global funds' risk appetite significantly declined, and technology stocks, due to their high valuations and long duration characteristics, were the first to suffer, experiencing capital outflows. Not only did the A-share STAR 50 hit new lows, but globally, the &#34;seven tech giants&#34; in the U.S. stock market and Korean storage stocks also fell into a technical adjustment range.
Currently, the market is experiencing a key change: the easing of geopolitical conflicts has led to a pullback in international oil prices from their highs, and the marginal easing of global inflation expectations has positively improved the core external factors that previously suppressed the market. Global funds' risk appetite is beginning to recover, and the funds that had previously flowed out are gradually returning to the high-elasticity technology sector, officially opening the rebound window for the STAR 50.
In addition, the performance prosperity of the STAR 50 also lays a fundamental basis for its rebound. After experiencing a tumultuous adjustment, the market has shown clear differentiation: on one hand, stocks lacking performance support and previously reliant on concept speculation have seen significant declines; on the other hand, stocks with positive expectations for annual reports or quarterly reports, and whose industry prosperity has been validated, have shown stronger resilience. This sends a clear signal to the market: as the quarterly report window approaches, the dominant logic is shifting from &#34;driven by expectations&#34; to &#34;supported by reality,&#34; and the STAR 50, with performance certainty, will gain more solid fundamental support during the rebound.
Figure: Since March, the performance stock index has outperformed in a highly volatile market.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Orw58gmltOZhVdy8GC2TMyNsy5BNgLHQNZKpJU6PgicYMAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Orw58gmltOZhVdy8GC2TMyNsy5BNgLHQNZKpJU6PgicYMAA/641"/>
Data source: WIND
At this current point, the STAR 50, with its triple advantages of geopolitical catalysis, oversold positioning, and performance support, has become a high-elasticity target for short-term rebound speculation, while its underlying medium to long-term high prosperity value remains solid, specifically:
From the perspective of short-term technical analysis and market sentiment, the rebound conditions for the STAR 50 are relatively mature. On one hand, the STAR 50 Index has been in a downward channel for five consecutive weeks, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15%. It has experienced one of the largest declines among all core indices. Such a deep adjustment has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations regarding geopolitical conflicts and macro uncertainties, and the index's technical indicators have entered the oversold zone, indicating a strong demand for technical recovery. On the other hand, external catalysts such as the easing of geopolitical conflicts, falling oil prices, and the recovery of global risk appetite are gradually materializing, leading to marginal improvements in the core factors that previously suppressed the STAR 50. The market sentiment for a rebound from oversold conditions continues to heat up.
Historically, after experiencing significant declines, the STAR 50 has shown a rebound elasticity significantly higher than that of other core indices, exhibiting a distinct &#34;oversold and high elasticity&#34; characteristic. With the addition of clear external positive catalysts this time, the strength and sustainability of its rebound are even more anticipated.
Figure: The STAR 50 has performed well in the five trading days following declines in recent years.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OziSJQvGLp6tLKShIOJE0oBJX42RYKiCqJ9Fy4oWzJ7UQAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OziSJQvGLp6tLKShIOJE0oBJX42RYKiCqJ9Fy4oWzJ7UQAA/641"/>
Data source: WIND
The short-term rebound of the STAR 50 is not without foundation; the underlying industry fundamentals have not reversed, and solid performance fundamentals serve as the core support for the rebound, determining its high prosperity value in the medium to long term. In the STAR 50's weighting, semiconductor companies account for nearly 70%, and the fundamentals of the semiconductor industry continue to improve: in January-February 2026, domestic integrated circuit production increased by 12.4% year-on-year, with growth rates improving compared to the entire year of 2025. Meanwhile, the DXI index (DRAM output value) rose by 2.8%, and the price index for memory chips has also maintained an upward trend, with the global semiconductor cycle still in an upward channel.
As the &#34;shovel seller&#34; in the development of the AI industry, the semiconductor and computing power industry chain is a core link in technological innovation. Its performance release has a high degree of certainty. As the first-quarter report window approaches, once the performance of the hardcore technology leaders among the STAR 50 constituent stocks is realized, it will effectively digest the current valuations and become a solid support for stock price rebounds. In the medium to long term, the industrial logic of domestic substitution and AI computing power upgrades remains clear, and the growth dividends of the STAR 50 continue to be released.
Figure: The STAR 50 constituents are mainly from high-prosperity industries.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OQ0nPSfAOOQCMvTfIJBLjQfAzHvEhpuIqdhTuPL_kIArYAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OQ0nPSfAOOQCMvTfIJBLjQfAzHvEhpuIqdhTuPL_kIArYAA/641"/>
Data source: WIND
From the perspective of valuation and cost-effectiveness, the risk-reward ratio of the STAR 50 is continuously improving. The current position is not only a favorable timing for short-term rebound speculation but also has medium to long-term attractiveness for left-side positioning. Although the absolute valuation percentile of the STAR 50 is relatively high, considering the high growth potential of its constituent stocks, the PEG (price-to-earnings growth ratio) is a more reasonable valuation reference. The forecast PEG for the STAR 50 in 2026 is 1.11, which does not present a valuation disadvantage compared to broad-based indices such as the CSI 300
With the performance verification of the first quarterly report, if the leading companies in the STAR 50 can maintain a net profit growth rate of over 30%, the current valuation will be quickly digested. Against the backdrop of easing external risk factors and the gradual landing of performance &#34;boots,&#34; the STAR 50 may usher in a corrective market driven by a rebound from overselling and high performance growth, creating a resonance between short-term rebound opportunities and medium to long-term allocation value.
Figure: The 2026 forecast PEG of the STAR 50 is not high compared to other broad-based indices.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-4Bg-pB0rd2RTwJF26m4DKYB70sj5q6VA_e153IY-xrMAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O-4Bg-pB0rd2RTwJF26m4DKYB70sj5q6VA_e153IY-xrMAA/641"/>
Data source: WIND
In summary, investors need not panic over the recent continuous decline of the STAR 50. With the key catalyst of easing geopolitical conflicts, the oversold rebound window for the STAR 50 is beginning to open, and its high elasticity will make it a core target in this round of corrective market. The market's short-term fluctuations are akin to the process of sifting through sand, and after distinguishing the genuine from the false, the STAR 50, which possesses true performance certainty, can not only lead the short-term rebound but also enjoy the growth dividends of technological innovation in the medium to long term. The &#34;bottom&#34; of the STAR 50 is gradually being built under the multiple factors of geopolitical catalysis, oversold recovery, and performance verification, making it a quality choice for short-term speculative rebounds and medium to long-term layouts in the technology industry.
For investors, due to the inherent high volatility of technology-related targets, using index-based investments or adopting a phased layout strategy can help smooth out short-term fluctuations and accurately grasp the short-term rebound opportunities and medium to long-term growth dividends of the STAR 50. Overall, STAR 50 ETF E Fund (588080) has a small tracking error and ample liquidity, efficiently connecting to the investment value of the STAR 50, making it a quality choice for participating in the rebound market in the technology sector and for medium to long-term allocation. Market sentiment will always fluctuate, but the value growth truly driven by innovation will ultimately be reflected in prices

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As we enter late March, a turning point in sentiment in the A-share market is emerging, with geopolitical conflicts easing and global risk appetite recovering. The technology growth sector, especially the STAR 50 Index, is seizing the opportunity for a rebound. Despite being influenced by external factors, the high elasticity of the STAR 50 makes it the preferred choice for market speculation. The short-term oversold rebound resonates with the medium to long-term high prosperity value, which is worth investors' attention. The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a decline in international oil prices, improving global inflation expectations and bringing back capital risk appetite, thus opening a rebound window for the STAR 50. Performance prosperity lays the foundation for the rebound

腾讯新闻 - 财经

ChinaAMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF

STAR 50

China Southern China Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Component Enhance Policies ETF

Huaan China Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF

The rebound window for speculation has opened. Why is STAR 50 the preferred choice for "high elasticity"?