2026: The Toughest Year of the Hog Cycle, Farming Enterprises "Winter" Through Multiple Approaches

On April 3rd, the price of the main contract for domestic live hog futures fell to 9,370 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since its listing. Meanwhile, in the spot market, the average price for live hog sales dropped below 10 yuan/kg, reaching a low point not seen in over a decade. Industry insiders view 2026 as the "most challenging year" of recent hog cycles. Against this backdrop, the state has conducted two rounds of central hog stockpiling to support hog prices since the beginning of 2026. Current hog prices have fallen below the industry's average cost line, plunging the farming sector into widespread losses. Unlike in the past, the progress of industry capacity reduction during this downturn in hog prices has been relatively slow, and market clearing will still require time.