This article is reprinted from [CCTV Finance];
The current tension in the Middle East has lasted for more than a month. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in energy prices, which has transmitted to various production links, causing shocks to the global supply chain.
What impact does the Middle East tension have on various fields such as energy, chemicals, logistics, agriculture, and finance? If the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz becomes prolonged, what chain reactions will it trigger?
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz tears open the crude oil supply gap
Global energy market turbulence intensifies
Daily gap of 10 million to 16 million barrels! The global energy &#34;artery&#34; is in distress
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CCTV reporter Gao Yan: The Strait of Hormuz is the throat of global oil supply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in the &#34;Oil Market Report&#34; released in March this year, it is estimated that in 2025, the Strait of Hormuz will transport an average of about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil per day, accounting for 25% of the total global maritime oil trade; it also bears about 20% of global liquefied natural gas transportation, serving as the core channel for natural gas exports from Gulf countries such as Qatar and the UAE.
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In terms of flow, over 70% of the oil in this strait is shipped to the Asian market. Japan and South Korea import 90% and 95% of their crude oil through this waterway, respectively. The IEA estimates that as of the end of March, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a global daily crude oil supply gap of 10 million to 16 million barrels.
Release of strategic petroleum reserves cannot stabilize the rapid rise in international oil prices
Although the IEA launched the largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve release plan last month, with a total scale exceeding 400 million barrels, it still cannot stabilize the rapid rise in international oil prices. The prices of Brent crude oil and New York light crude oil are currently at high levels, having risen at least 60% compared to before the outbreak of the conflict; the price of the main contract for Dutch TTF natural gas futures recently peaked at 69 euros per megawatt-hour, doubling compared to before the conflict.
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CCTV reporter Gao Yan: The international rating agency Fitch pointed out in its latest research report that if the Middle East conflict continues until the end of June this year, the world economy will grow 0.8 percentage points less this year. The report predicts that the growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in 2026 will drop from the recent forecast of 2.2% to 1.5%, and the economic growth rate of the Eurozone will fall from the previous forecast of 1.3% growth to less than 1% growth this year;
Emerging market countries will generally face challenges such as supply chain disruptions and rising debt risks.
Synthetic fiber prices rise, chemical fiber companies adjust production flexibly
China's textile industry holds a leading position globally, and the price of synthetic fibers, which are core raw materials for the textile industry, is directly linked to crude oil. Since the outbreak of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel, what impact has it had on domestic chemical fiber companies' production?
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CCTV reporter Yang Ziwei: With the rise in crude oil prices driving up synthetic fiber prices, the overall price of polyester has increased by more than 10% in the past month.
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The head of a chemical fiber company in Shengze Town, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, stated that the factory is currently operating at full capacity, with orders scheduled for delivery 30 days out. However, since chemical fiber products rely on basic chemical raw materials refined from petroleum, every round of crude oil price increases will be directly reflected in the company's production process.
From an overall market perspective, synthetic fibers have seen varying degrees of price increases: for example, one major product category of polyester, polyester filament, rose from about 7,180 yuan per ton in March this year to 9,300 yuan per ton; nylon varieties saw weekly increases exceeding 6%, with some models jumping 2,000 yuan per ton in a single day.
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Some companies indicated that they will not easily reduce production lines at this time, as there is still continuous demand from downstream customers, and the losses from stopping and restarting production are greater. They are also managing inventory dynamically and increasing the procurement of different raw material varieties to hedge against price volatility risks.
Raw material price fluctuations lead fabric companies to adjust quotes in real-time
For textile companies, chemical fibers are the basic raw materials for producing fabrics, accounting for more than 60% of the total cost of fabrics. Keqiao, Zhejiang, is the world's largest textile distribution center. Local merchant Ma Ziyi from China Light Textile City stated that the company organizes production based on orders, and many contracts were signed before the year-end, so the losses from raw material price increases for these orders can only be borne by the company itself.
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Yang Wei, general manager of Zhejiang Jinchai Fabric Co., Ltd., stated that their company has not yet passed on the price increases to downstream customers, but is instead using methods such as stocking, adjusting goods, and shortening delivery cycles, while also accelerating differentiated research and development of fabrics to enhance bargaining power
Responding to Rising Cost Pressures, Textile Foreign Trade Enterprises Adjust Raw Material and Market Layout
The cost pressure brought about by rising crude oil prices will gradually transmit downstream along the textile industry chain.
Luo Qiaoping, a merchant operating sun-protective clothing in Yiwu International Trade City, introduced that the nylon content of the sun-protective clothing in her store exceeds 85%. Recently, while raw material prices have risen, they are also facing supply shortages, with many upstream factories unable to fulfill orders.
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Some companies producing new Chinese-style clothing stated that the main raw materials for ready-made garments are natural fibers, with a relatively small proportion of chemical fibers, which provides the enterprises with a certain buffer space.
He Rong, General Manager of Zhejiang Haining Zhongfang Fabric Technology Co., Ltd.: Some clothes use chemical fiber materials to create a three-dimensional flower effect, with a cost increase of about 5 to 10 yuan per piece. If raw material prices continue to rise, designers will directly change chemical fiber materials to rayon.
The Shadow of Raw Material &#34;Supply Disruption&#34; Affects Global Chemical and High-end Manufacturing Industries
Currently, the impact of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is gradually spreading from the energy sector to the chemical and high-end manufacturing industry chains.
South Korea: Ethylene Prices Surge, Garbage Bags Become Scarce Goods
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In Seoul, South Korea, in recent weeks, &#34;Did you manage to buy garbage bags?&#34; has become a somewhat helpless greeting among many community neighbors. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, garbage bags, which are essential in the lives of South Korean citizens, have become &#34;scarce goods&#34; in some supermarkets, even selling out.
The price of plastic bags in South Korea has risen significantly, primarily due to a sharp decline in naphtha imports, leading to a surge in the price of ethylene used to produce plastic bags.
Multiple Global Chemical Companies Announce Price Increase Plans
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In the face of cost pressures brought about by this raw material &#34;supply disruption&#34; crisis, multiple global chemical companies announced price increase plans in March. American chemical giant Dow Chemical raised the price of polyethylene to twice the previously announced level. Germany's Wacker Chemie has comprehensively increased the prices of silicone products, affecting about 2,800 products.
Qatar's Helium-related Facilities Attacked, Spot Prices Recently Surge Over 50%
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In addition, the recent conflict in the Middle East has brought attention to a colorless and odorless inert gas—helium. Qatar supplies nearly one-third of the world's helium demand. Due to attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities, helium production lines have been damaged, and repairs will take several years. Recently, the spot price of helium has surged by more than 50%.
Fertilizer Price Increase: The &#34;Chain Disruption&#34; in the Strait of Hormuz Impacts Global Agriculture
The chain reaction caused by the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has not only put pressure on the global chemical industry but also affects the production and prices of global agricultural products through &#34;fertilizer,&#34; a key raw material for agricultural production.
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The World Food Programme warns that if the conflict in the Middle East continues, the number of people facing food security threats this year may reach a historic high.
How Can a Strait Affect Bread Prices?
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The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has simultaneously impacted natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer production and global fertilizer shipping routes, forming a &#34;raw materials - production - transportation&#34; triple disruption that affects nearly all staple grain production, directly leading to reduced crop yields and adjustments in planting structures, which in turn triggers &#34;structural food inflation.&#34;
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Analysts generally expect that, against the backdrop of an imbalance in fertilizer supply and demand that is difficult to alleviate in the short term and ongoing geopolitical risks, the upward pressure on prices of global grains such as corn and wheat will continue for some time.
From Suspension to Risk Aversion to Repricing
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Logistics
The obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz due to the situation in the Middle East has also severely impacted global logistics. This situation has now lasted for over a month, and the logistics industry has gradually shifted from the initial &#34;suspension for risk aversion&#34; to &#34;rerouting and diversion&#34; and &#34;repricing.&#34;
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As shipping routes and transportation methods continue to adjust, this impact is also driving a redistribution of risk and profit within the global logistics chain. With the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the obstruction of Middle Eastern crude oil exports, buyers in Asia and Europe are increasingly turning to the United States and West Africa for alternative sources
Relevant individuals stated: &#34;For shipping, it is equivalent to 30% of the originally normal oil transport not being able to be shipped out, as importing countries are rushing to find oil elsewhere, but the ships cannot be redeployed in time.&#34;
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In contrast, the situation for air logistics is more complex during this crisis. On one hand, after maritime transport was obstructed, some high-time-sensitive and high-value goods shifted to air transport, directly driving up freight rates; on the other hand, although air freight prices have risen, air logistics companies are also facing multiple pressures such as soaring fuel costs. Currently, there are no signs of an end to the regional conflict, and the restructuring of the logistics chain is still ongoing

The tension in the Middle East has lasted for more than a month, and the obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in global energy prices, affecting multiple sectors including energy, chemicals, logistics, agriculture, and finance. The International Energy Agency's report indicates that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil supply, with an average daily transportation of about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil. The conflict has resulted in a daily crude oil supply gap of 10 million to 16 million barrels. Despite the release of strategic oil reserves, international oil prices continue to rise rapidly. If the conflict persists until the end of June, global economic growth will decrease by 0.8%

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The flames of war in the Middle East have reached clothing, bread, garbage bags... It's not just "oil" that is rising in price