Shell PLC (NYSE:SHEL) shares were trading lower in premarket Wednesday after the company trimmed its first-quarter gas production guidance and as broader energy stocks declined on easing geopolitical tensions.



Shares of oil and gas companies moved lower after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the U.S. would work closely with Iran and that several points in a proposed plan to end the war had been agreed to, signaling a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and reduced supply concerns. Oil prices fell sharply following the announcement, pressuring energy equities.



Shell cited the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes as it revised its outlook.



<h2>Upstream and Integrated Gas</h2>



Shell narrowed its Integrated Gas production outlook to about 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from its prior guidance of 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d.



The company said Trading and Optimization performance in the Integrated Gas segment is expected to be in line with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.



Shell raised its LNG liquefaction volumes outlook to 7.6 million to 8.0 million metric tons, compared with prior guidance of 7.4 million to 8.0 million metric tons. The increase reflects the ramp-up of LNG Canada, partly offset by weather-related disruptions in Australia and LNG outages in Qatar.



The company also tightened its Upstream production outlook to about 1.76 million to 1.86 million boe/d, compared with its earlier range of 1.70 million to 1.90 million boe/d.



<h2>Refining and Chemicals</h2>



Shell now expects refinery utilization of about 95% to 99%, up from its prior outlook of 90% to 98%.



It projected refining margins of about $17 per barrel for the quarter, compared with $14 per barrel in the fourth quarter.



Chemical plant utilization is expected to be between 81% and 85%, versus prior guidance of 79% to 87%. Adjusted earnings in the Chemicals and Products segment are expected to be flat year over year.



The company forecast marketing sales volumes of about 2.55 million to 2.65 million barrels per day in the first quarter.



<h2>Earnings &amp; Analyst Outlook</h2>



Following last quarter’s results, investors are now tracking the path toward the next reporting date on May 7, 2026 (confirmed).



<ul>
<li>EPS Estimate: $1.87 (Up from $1.84 YoY)</li>



<li>Revenue Estimate: $74.77 Billion (Up from $69.23 Billion YoY)</li>



<li>Valuation: P/E of 15.7x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)</li>
</ul>



Analyst Consensus &amp; Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $82.65. Recent analyst moves include:



<ul>
<li>Piper Sandler: Overweight (Raises Target to $106.00) (March 12)</li>



<li>Wells Fargo: Equal-Weight (Lowers Target to $77.00) (February 6)</li>



<li>Piper Sandler: Overweight (Lowers Target to $89.00) (February 6)</li>
</ul>



SHEL Price Action: Shell shares were down 4.33% at $90.07 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.



Photo via Shutterstock

Shell PLC has lowered its Q1 gas production outlook due to disruptions in the Middle East, causing its shares to fall by 4.33% in premarket trading. The company revised its Integrated Gas production guidance to 880,000-920,000 boe/d, down from 920,000-980,000 boe/d. Despite this, Shell raised its LNG liquefaction outlook to 7.6-8.0 million metric tons. Refinery utilization is expected to be 95%-99%, with projected refining margins of $17 per barrel. Analysts maintain a Buy rating on the stock, with an average price target of $82.65.

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Shell Cuts Gas Outlook On Middle East Disruptions