China National Radio Beijing, April 8th news (Reporter Niu Guyue) A strong rally, with many stocks hitting the daily limit... On April 8th, the A-share market welcomed a broad-based increase. On the news front, the U.S. and Israel have paused military strikes against Iran.
As the situation in the Middle East gradually clarifies, market risk appetite is rising. Can the A-shares start a new wave of upward momentum? How should investors seize structural opportunities amid market fluctuations?
A chorus of &#34;rising&#34;
On April 8th, A-shares opened high and continued to rise. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.69%, closing at 3995 points, up over a hundred points from the previous day's close of 3890.16 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.79%; the ChiNext Index rose 5.91%; and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index rose 5.64%. The market turnover exceeded 2.45 trillion yuan, significantly increasing by over 800 billion yuan compared to the previous day. More than 5100 stocks in the entire market rose, with 135 stocks hitting the daily limit, continuing the lively scene of hundreds of stocks hitting the limit for two consecutive days.
In the A-share market, technology stocks rebounded across the board, with sectors such as computing hardware, semiconductor equipment, AI computing, consumer electronics, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace leading the gains; precious metals, industrial metals, and large financial sectors also performed strongly. In contrast, the oil and gas and coal sectors, which had previously surged due to the Middle East conflict, adjusted against the trend.
According to Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, three sectors are most representative: first, the sharp decline in the oil and gas sector and the surge in the aviation sector, &#34;the logic is simple and clear — the reason is the significant easing on the cost side.&#34; Tian analyzed that the counter-trend surge in the precious metals sector is somewhat abnormal, &#34;a ceasefire should weaken safe-haven demand, but gold prices have risen above $4800, reflecting a deeper erosion of dollar credit, and the global 'de-dollarization' trend may accelerate after the TACO project stalls, with the ceasefire actually reinforcing this narrative.&#34; Tian said. Additionally, the military industry sector did not experience a significant drop amid the easing geopolitical news, which Tian believes reflects that this is a &#34;ceasefire&#34; rather than a &#34;stop to war.&#34;
On the news front, U.S. President Trump posted on social media on the 7th, stating: &#34;I agree to pause bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.&#34; Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif announced early on the 8th that the Strait of Hormuz would achieve safe navigation within two weeks on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The Israel Defense Forces announced on the 8th that they have suspended strikes against Iran but remain in a state of high readiness.
Returning to an upward channel or an emotional pulse?
Regarding the nature of the recent surge in A-shares, market experts have provided different interpretations.
Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, believes that the Middle East conflict has only caused a short-term impact on the A-share market, rather than a change in long-term trends. &#34;The logic behind this round of market activity is profound and will not be altered by this short-term factor of the Middle East conflict.&#34; He predicts that as the situation in the Middle East gradually clarifies, market risk appetite is expected to rise, and the index is likely to recover the 4000-point mark, starting a new wave of upward momentum.
Yang Delong also emphasized the structural changes occurring in the A-share market ecosystem. He cited data indicating that over the past year, the scale of cash dividends from listed companies has far exceeded that of IPOs and refinancing
&#34;This is a very positive signal and a sign of the ecological change in the A-share market—allowing the capital market to have both financing and investment functions, achieving a balance between investment and financing.&#34; He urged investors to adhere to the value investment philosophy, seizing the opportunity of this market trend by positioning in quality stocks or quality funds.
Tian Lihui characterized the market performance on April 8 as an &#34;emotional pulse market.&#34; &#34;On the surface, it appears to be a widespread rally, but a deeper look at the market reveals three key details: some stocks surged and then fell back, some stocks showed a divergence between volume and price, and there was significant sector differentiation.&#34; Tian Lihui warned that the foundation for the rise is not solid, and it is more a release of the 'spring effect' accumulated from previous continuous volume contraction, rather than a trend reversal.
Tian Lihui's cautious judgment is not unfounded. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump stated on the 8th that if negotiations between the U.S. and Iran do not go well, the U.S. could easily resume military actions against Iran. The market generally believes that there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding whether substantial progress can be made in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Lin Yang, chief strategy analyst at Dongxing Securities Research Institute, also expressed a cautiously optimistic view before the situation clarifies. &#34;Caution comes from the twists and turns of the war process and negotiation process, where the situation of fighting while negotiating makes a complete end to the war unlikely to happen overnight; at the same time, optimism arises from the fact that high-intensity wars are constrained by various parties, and maintaining such a situation for a long time is costly for all parties, leading to expectations of gradual improvement in the situation in the near future.&#34; Lin Yang suggested actively positioning in sectors with relatively sufficient adjustments such as AI and applications, commercial aerospace, semiconductors, and robotics when the situation clarifies.
How to position in the future market?
In Tian Lihui's view, the core variable for the future trend of A-shares is the Islamabad negotiations starting on April 10. He stated that in the short term, after the emotional pulse is digested, the probability of the market returning to a state of oscillation and differentiation is high. &#34;The Shanghai Composite Index faces dual psychological and technical pressure at the 4000-point level, and if the trading volume cannot continue to expand, the difficulty of breaking through remains.&#34; From a medium-term perspective, the coexistence of multiple logics in today's market indicates that the market is undergoing a reconstruction of valuation logic.
According to a research report by Zhongyuan Securities, the current average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.08 times and 43.62 times, respectively, above the median average level of the past three years, making it suitable for medium to long-term positioning. &#34;The core suppressing factor in the current market comes from overseas, and the Middle East conflict may still have fluctuations in the future, potentially leading to sustained increases in oil prices and exacerbating global stagflation pressures. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even raise rates again, which would suppress global liquidity and risk appetite.&#34; Zhongyuan Securities stated that it expects the Shanghai Composite Index to maintain a high probability of oscillating upward and recommends that investors closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy trends. In the short term, it suggests focusing on investment opportunities in industries such as semiconductors, components, communication equipment, and non-ferrous metals.
Wu Jiaxiang, a senior investment advisor at GF Securities, stated that from the perspective of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, as the decline in PPI narrows, it is expected that corporate profits will enter a mild recovery channel by 2026, and the speculation on the profit inflection point will become an important support for the market trend. &#34;Considering that A-shares are entering the most important earnings season of the year, in terms of operations, avoid blindly chasing highs and killing lows, and seize the opportunity to optimize the holding structure.&#34;
&#34;Wu Jiaxiang suggests that investment should be arranged from multiple dimensions, including macroeconomic conditions, profitability, chip distribution, valuation, trading, cyclical stages, and track value. Continue to focus on two main investment lines: one is growth technology (commercial aerospace, gaming media, semiconductors, robotics, innovative drugs); the other is industries with improving prosperity (rare earths, chemicals, insurance, military industry, offshore wind power).
At the same time, institutions remind investors to be wary of risks such as the escalation of the Middle East war, economic data falling short of expectations, and deteriorating external environments.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OSrAABl0GzcO9v98LJNFsf3C4K65dUxQBM462dYFBcpOoAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OSrAABl0GzcO9v98LJNFsf3C4K65dUxQBM462dYFBcpOoAA/641"/>

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On April 8th, the A-share market saw a broad increase, with the SSE Index rising by 2.69%, the Shenzhen Index increasing by 4.79%, and the ChiNext rising by 5.91%. The market turnover exceeded 2.45 trillion yuan, with over 5,100 stocks rising and 135 stocks hitting the daily limit. Technology stocks, precious metals, and large financial sectors performed strongly, while the oil, gas, and coal sectors adjusted against the trend. The United States suspended military strikes against Iran, boosting market risk appetite. Experts analyze that this surge may be an emotional pulse rather than a sustained increase

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Ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran: Is the A-shares market returning to an upward channel?