<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxHrTphvD_b3BDSv5HXf6M8u66fs51r5B8-Tef2kZsWzgAA/1000?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxHrTphvD_b3BDSv5HXf6M8u66fs51r5B8-Tef2kZsWzgAA/1000"/>
On April 9 local time, ahead of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva warned during an event in Washington, D.C. that although the conflict in the Middle East has entered a temporary ceasefire, the &#34;supply shock&#34; it has caused to the global economy is significant and asymmetric. The IMF will lower its global growth forecast in the upcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO) report to be released next week.
Georgieva stated that given the high uncertainty of the current situation, the WEO report will include multiple scenario assumptions: from a rapid normalization of economic activity to a severe test of persistently high oil and gas prices triggering a second-round effect. &#34;Had it not been for this shock, the IMF originally planned to raise the global growth forecast. However, due to infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, market confidence setbacks, and other 'scarring effects,' even in the most ideal scenario, a downward adjustment of the global growth forecast has become inevitable,&#34; Georgieva added.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OMdII4JZiRvtrtcLkDWlRgmDhgKN5t3Fuz4wxsQZ_L7jIAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OMdII4JZiRvtrtcLkDWlRgmDhgKN5t3Fuz4wxsQZ_L7jIAA/641"/>
Concerns Over Long-term &#34;Scarring Effects&#34;
Georgieva characterized the oil shock caused by the Middle East conflict as a typical &#34;negative supply shock&#34; that is spreading globally. &#34;Due to the need to maintain minimum flow standards, many refineries have been forced to shut down; shortages of diesel and aviation fuel have severely impacted global transportation, trade, and tourism. More critically, there is a food security issue, with transportation disruptions leading to an increase of over 45 million in the global hungry population, bringing the total to over 360 million,&#34; Georgieva stated.
It is noteworthy that, unlike previous short-term market fluctuations, the IMF has expressed deep concerns about long-term &#34;scarring effects.&#34;
Taking Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, home to the world's largest liquefied natural gas production facility, as an example, this location produces 93% of the liquefied natural gas in the Gulf region, with 80% exported to the Asia-Pacific region. However, the facility has been closed since March 2 and suffered direct strikes on March 19. &#34;Ras Laffan may take 3 to 5 years to fully restore its production capacity,&#34; Georgieva said. &#34;Even in the most ideal circumstances, it is impossible to uniformly return to pre-war conditions.&#34;
Georgieva mentioned that after more than five weeks of suspension, it is currently impossible to accurately predict the future navigation prospects of the Strait of Hormuz, nor can one assert when regional aviation will recover. &#34;The only certainty is that even if the current ceasefire situation can last, a slowdown in global growth is already an inevitable trend.&#34;
The Crossroads of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
What good strategies are there to respond to the current situation? Kristalina Georgieva calls on decision-makers: do not act unilaterally. &#34;Do not add fuel to the fire.&#34; She urged economies not to take actions such as export controls and price controls that could further disrupt the global economic environment.
On the monetary policy front, Georgieva stated that, first, given the high uncertainty of the current situation, policymakers should remain vigilant and wait; it is appropriate to hold steady for now. Second, if inflation expectations face the risk of de-anchoring, triggering a cost-push inflation spiral, central banks must decisively raise interest rates, even if this further suppresses growth. Furthermore, if financial conditions tighten sharply and lead to a contraction in demand, fiscal policy should shift towards calibrated demand support where there is room. Finally, if the sharp tightening of financial conditions adds negative demand shocks beyond supply shocks, monetary policy will return to a delicate balancing act.
She specifically mentioned a potential risk point: the surge in AI investment boosts economic growth, but if the massive energy demand from AI encounters growth stagnation due to energy insecurity, it may raise concerns among investors, leading to a reversal of financial risks.
On the fiscal policy front, the IMF warns that the world today faces challenges in fiscal space, with public debt levels generally higher than 20 years ago.
&#34;As benchmark yield curves rise, debt costs are increasing. If deficit financing stimulus measures are added at this time, it will put pressure on monetary policy,&#34; Georgieva stated. &#34;It's like having one foot on the gas and the other on the brake, which is certainly not a good thing.&#34; She called for all economies to responsibly deploy limited fiscal resources and rebuild buffer space after shocks.
(This article is from Yicai)

561360

Kristalina Georgieva, the President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned in Washington that the conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant supply shock to the global economy, and the IMF will lower its global growth expectations. Although the situation has temporarily ceased fire, factors such as infrastructure damage and weakened market confidence make the downward adjustment of global growth expectations inevitable. Georgieva pointed out that the long-term "scar effect" could impact the global economy, particularly concerning oil and food security, with over 45 million additional people facing hunger globally

腾讯新闻 - 财经

Guotai CSI Oil & Gas Industry ETF

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

BP p.l.c.

Occidental Petroleum

F GX OIL

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

VanEck Oil Services ETF

Us Brent Oil

SPDR Energy Select

VG Energy

Huaan CNI Oil&Gas ETF

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

F SAMSUNG OIL

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

HSPC

United States Oil Fund LP

SPDR O&G Equip

Ping An CNI Oil&Gas ETF

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

IMF President: Under the impact of the Middle East conflict, a downward adjustment of global growth expectations is inevitable