On April 13, the A-shares opened lower but rose higher, demonstrating strong resilience. The market volume shrank slightly, with significant sector differentiation, reflecting the characteristics of existing capital games, but the transaction amount remained above 2.1 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, power equipment, military industry, and electronics performed well, while media, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods led the decline.
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Interviewees pointed out that &#34;the shrinking volume turning positive&#34; reflects the market characteristics of existing capital games and structural differentiation. The early morning low opening was mainly due to the dual pressure of digesting external negative factors and previous profit-taking, while the subsequent shrinking volume turning positive indicates that market selling pressure is gradually weakening, and the sentiment of holding back sales is rising. Although external factors such as geopolitical situations may still intermittently disturb market sentiment, their impact is expected to gradually diminish over time. Looking ahead, the A-share index may continue to fluctuate, with technology growth and improving prosperity remaining the focus of the market.
Shrinking Volume Opening Lower and Rising Higher
Today, the A-shares opened lower and rose higher, with major indices turning positive. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.06% at 3988.56 points, the ChiNext Index closed up 0.8% at 3476.44 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.69%. The CSI 300, STAR 50, and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 all showed slight gains, while the SSE 50 remained flat.
The trading volume decreased by 174.5 billion yuan, with the daily transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges dropping to 2.16 trillion yuan. As of April 10, the margin balance of the three markets increased to 2.61 trillion yuan.
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In terms of individual stocks, a total of 2378 stocks closed up, with 86 hitting the daily limit; 2960 stocks closed down, with 10 hitting the daily limit. 14 stocks had a daily transaction amount of no less than 10 billion yuan, with XinYisheng down nearly 2%, Tianfu Communication down over 2%, while Ningde Times, Sungrow Power Supply, Dongshan Precision, and Shenghong Technology performed well, and Huagong Technology rose nearly 8%.
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13 of the Shenwan first-level industries closed down, with media down over 2%, and transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and light industry manufacturing leading the decline.
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In terms of sectors, building materials surged by 2.81%, with stocks such as China National Materials, China Jushi, and Honghe Technology hitting the daily limit; sectors like power equipment, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as national defense and military industry also performed well, with Tianbang Food and Huaying Agriculture hitting the daily limit, and Xingtuxinke reaching a &#34;20cm&#34; limit.
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Jia Xiaolong, director of Heiqi Capital Research Institute, analyzed to reporters that energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, and power sectors in the new energy industry chain led the gains, primarily benefiting from the acceleration of global energy transition, the advancement of domestic new power system construction, and the improvement of industry supply-demand patterns. Funds are clearly focusing on the high prosperity green energy main line; meanwhile, sectors like media and pharmaceuticals are adjusting, which is more a normal manifestation of prior fund rotation and valuation digestion. The flow of funds and market sentiment both indicate that capital is concentrating on fundamentally stable and policy-benefiting directions, rather than a trend of market weakness.
Obvious Game of Existing Funds
The stock markets in Japan and South Korea closed lower, while the A-shares opened low and rose high today, reflecting strong independence.
Honghan Investment Chief Investment Officer Hu Zhenyi stated that the market shows signs of desensitization to the impact of the US-Iran war, with external disturbances weakening. Domestic PPI turning positive has led to a high-low switch in funds, with over 2 trillion yuan in transactions maintaining hotspots, oscillating to digest the 4000-point pressure. The market shows strong resilience, overall presenting a pattern of strong oscillation.
Zhang Pengyuan, a wealth researcher at Paipai Network, analyzed that today's A-shares showed a &#34;reduced volume turning red&#34; pattern, mainly reflecting the characteristics of existing funds' game and structural differentiation. On one hand, heavyweight stocks represented by &#34;Zhongte Gu&#34; support the index; on the other hand, funds concentrated on these assets create a &#34;siphon effect&#34; on other small and medium-sized stocks and some thematic stocks, leading to a situation where the index rises while individual stocks diverge. Coupled with the impact of external situation fluctuations and the verification of earnings during the earnings season, the behavior of fund repositioning further exacerbated the performance differences between sectors.
Jia Xiaolong pointed out that today's A-shares showed reduced volume turning red and narrow oscillation, which is essentially a resonance of emotional repair and fund repositioning under internal and external pressures. The early low opening was mainly to digest the dual pressure of external negative news and prior profit-taking, while the subsequent reduced volume turning red reflects the gradual exhaustion of market selling pressure and the rising sentiment of funds reluctant to sell, gradually revealing the inherent resilience of the A-share market. On the international level, the disturbances from overseas geopolitical situations have not dissipated, and the expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are fluctuating, suppressing the global risk asset preference, with foreign capital overall maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude; on the domestic level, the economic moderate recovery trend is clear, and the policy support effect continues to be released.
Possible Continuation of Range Oscillation
How will the market perform in the short term?
Xingshi Investment Chief Strategy Officer Fang Lei told reporters that in the short term, although the conflict has not ended, it has a relatively obvious turning significance for global risk preference. The suppression of sentiment by overseas conflict factors is likely to weaken, and market sentiment is expected to recover. Attention should also be paid to the potential impact of profit-taking on the stock market structure after sentiment recovery. In addition, as A-shares gradually enter the peak period of earnings announcements, the market investment logic is expected to return to fundamentals, with structural opportunities remaining the main theme
&#34;The A-shares are expected to remain primarily focused on structural opportunities, with the index likely continuing a fluctuating pattern. The direction of technological growth and improvement in economic conditions will still be key areas of market attention,&#34; said Zhang Pengyuan. He believes that external factors such as geopolitical situations may still intermittently disturb market sentiment, but their impact is expected to gradually diminish over time. Domestically, with improvements in economic indicators such as PPI and the continued implementation of stable growth policies, expectations for fundamental recovery are likely to strengthen.
Mingyu Asset Management believes that the market may present a fluctuating and differentiated structural trend. The marginal impact of the conflict on the risk appetite for A-shares is diminishing over time, but the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, global energy shocks, and supply chain disruptions are increasing, and economic uncertainty is still accumulating; the weekend negotiations between the U.S. and Iran did not achieve substantial progress, and oil prices remain high overall, with the state of crude oil shortages and cautious shipping unchanged; U.S. military mobilization is still ongoing, and it remains unclear whether the conflict will escalate on a large scale. Inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index still have the potential to rise. After the domestic PPI turns positive year-on-year, it is expected to rise further, which will generally benefit the improvement of overall A-share earnings, with the impact on A-shares likely smaller than that on overseas markets.
Jia Xiaolong maintains a positive yet rational judgment on the short-term A-share market trend. Internationally, overseas liquidity disturbances will still bring about intermittent fluctuations, but it is difficult to change the independent operating rhythm of A-shares; domestically, macro liquidity is reasonably ample, the economic fundamentals are continuously improving marginally, and policy support is strong. In the short term, A-shares are likely to continue a pattern of range-bound fluctuations and structural rotations, with limited overall downside space. The market focus will gradually and steadily rise, and there will not be a one-sided extreme market; rather, it will be more of a healthy game around valuation and performance, with sentiment gradually recovering as economic data warms up.
Layout in AI and other technology directions
How to position holdings next?
Mingyu Asset Management suggests paying attention to the direction of resource price increases catalyzed by rising overseas geopolitical conflicts, such as oil and gas, chemicals, new energy, as well as defensive attributes in banks, domestic demand-oriented service consumption, and the industrial prosperity of optical communications and innovative pharmaceuticals. Directions with strong performance certainty, such as AI hardware and software, advanced manufacturing, and military industry, may also perform well after market risk appetite stabilizes.
Hu Zhenyi stated that the short-term market is in a recovery phase from the decline that began at the end of March, with rotation rebounds being the main feature. The 4000-point mark can serve as a dividing line for strength and weakness, and there may be adjustment pressure in the latter part of the month. Elastic directions include AI computing power, aerospace and military industry, bulk precious metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy, and it is recommended to adopt a rotation trading strategy rather than a trend strategy.
In terms of positioning, Jia Xiaolong suggests a core principle of balanced allocation and trend rotation. Based on domestic policy orientation and industrial prosperity trends, focus on undervalued cyclical sectors and high-growth sectors, while considering performance certainty and medium to long-term growth potential; at the same time, moderately avoid previously overvalued and sentiment-driven sectors to reduce portfolio volatility risk. In terms of operations, maintain patience, avoid blindly chasing highs and lows, and replace frequent trading with structural optimization of holdings. Relying on the overarching logic of economic recovery and policy dividends, firmly hold quality sector stocks, seize medium to long-term layout opportunities amid market fluctuations, and calmly respond to short-term volatility
Reporter: Zhu Denghua
Text Editor: Chen Si

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On April 13th, the A-shares opened lower but rose higher, showing strong resilience in the market, with trading volume remaining above 2.1 trillion yuan. Power equipment, military industry, and electronics performed well, while media, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods lagged. Analysts pointed out that market selling pressure is gradually weakening, and there is an increasing reluctance to sell among investors. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, with a focus on technology growth and improving economic conditions. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index closed up 0.8%

A-shares defy the trend and turn red, what’s next?