HTSC: Livestock Capacity Reduction Has Begun; Reiterates Recommendation for Pig Farming Sector

Huatai Securities' research report points out that, according to Wind data, the national average price of live pigs on April 14 reached 8.7 yuan per kilogram, breaking through the lowest level since 2008. This corresponds to an average loss of approximately 450 yuan per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations, exceeding the deepest single-week loss in the previous cycle. Since March, the industry has fallen into deep cash flow losses. Against this backdrop, the reduction of breeding sows has begun again. Based on capacity and efficiency indicators, it is calculated that piglet supply in the industry will remain at a high level from Q2 to Q3 2026. It is highly probable that the industry will continue to suffer cash flow losses and capital consumption. Non-linear capacity reduction could occur at any time, forming strong catalysts for the sector. Therefore, we reiterate our recommendation for the pig farming sector.