On April 16, the A-shares rose with reduced volume, the ChiNext index hit a nearly 11-year high, and the daily trading volume fell to 2.36 trillion yuan, with 4,293 stocks in the green, led by the telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors.
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Interviewees stated that the easing of the Middle East situation and a 5% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter boosted market confidence. However, during the upward process, the trading volume was not fully released, and while optimism should be maintained, it should not be blind. The sectors with the highest gains carry the risk of overvaluation, and the sustainability of the market may be limited. It is recommended to focus on a balanced allocation around the first-quarter report verification window, with three main lines: AI technology growth, resource products, and advanced manufacturing.
ChiNext Index Hits New High
The index opened high and rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7% to 4,055.55 points, the ChiNext index up 3.17% to 3,626.27 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%. The CSI 300, STAR 50, and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 all rose by more than 1%, while the SSE 50 was slightly in the red.
Trading volume decreased by 74.51 billion yuan, with the daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets falling to 2.36 trillion yuan. The enthusiasm for leveraged funds has rebounded, with the margin balance in the three markets increasing to 2.65 trillion yuan as of April 15.
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The market showed a good profit effect, with a total of 4,293 stocks rising, 88 hitting the daily limit; 1,072 stocks fell, with 9 hitting the daily limit. 14 stocks had a daily trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan, with leading stocks in the CPO concept &#34;Yi Zhongtian&#34; (Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yi Sheng, Tianfu Communication) collectively rising sharply, and semiconductor stocks such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Cambrian also performed well.
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On the market, lithium mining concepts, CPO concepts, sodium-ion batteries, power battery recycling, power equipment, consumer electronics, and rare metals led the gains, while banks, weight loss drugs, oil and gas, chemical pharmaceuticals, and brain engineering saw slight declines.
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The oil and petrochemical, banking, and biopharmaceutical sectors saw slight declines, while the rest closed in the green. The telecommunications, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, media, power equipment, computer, and steel sectors all rose by more than 2%
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6 communication stocks hit the daily limit, with DingTong Technology reaching a &#34;20cm&#34; limit, and ChaoXun Communication, TeFa Information, RunJian Co., Ltd., TongDing HuanLian, and ZhongBei Communication also hitting the limit. ZhongJi XuChuang rose by 3.8% to 809.61 yuan/share, XinYiSheng rose by 8.15% to 537.5 yuan/share, and TianFu Communication rose by 7.53% to 355.57 yuan/share.
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Power equipment also performed well, with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit, including LongPan Technology, ShengYang Co., Ltd., ChangCheng Technology, WanLi Co., Ltd., and KeDaLi.
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DaWei Co., Ltd., RuiNeng Technology, and KeChuan Technology saw their electronic stocks hit the daily limit, with BaiBang Technology reaching a &#34;20cm&#34; limit, and JinLu Electronics, ChangXin Technology, and XieChuang Data experiencing significant gains.
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Why the surge with reduced volume
Regarding today's surge, Hong Lei, chairman of ZhiYuan Investment, analyzed to reporters that this is the result of multiple internal and external positive factors resonating. Internally, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's deepening of ChiNext reforms and the optimization of drug pricing mechanisms have boosted market confidence; externally, the easing of the Middle East situation, combined with the strong performance of U.S. tech stocks, has led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite.
Chen Bozhong, a partner at ZhongAn DingSheng Investment, stated that today's A-shares rose mainly due to three factors: first, favorable macroeconomic conditions, with a 5% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter, exceeding expectations, and improvements in industrial added value and consumption data; second, the central bank's implementation of a 500 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase on April 15; third, the cooling of external risks, with the Middle East situation easing and oil prices falling.
However, trading volume has decreased. Fang Chong, a manager at HuaYan Private Equity Fund, told reporters that today's market performance remains polarized, with major gains concentrated in the resource, energy metal chain, and some electronic technology sectors, showing characteristics of &#34;upstream resource price increases driving index upward,&#34; but the rise has not been accompanied by increased volume, indicating insufficient transaction volume release, thus caution is warranted. Additionally, from the perspective of PB (price-to-book ratio), the leading sectors have been on an upward trend for over a month, and overall valuations are already high, suggesting limited sustainability in the future. Although price increases have significantly improved first-quarter performance, current stock prices have fully reflected market expectations, and as the marginal effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict diminish, there is limited room for further significant increases, and after short-term speculation, a consolidation period may follow
Recently, the market has rebounded significantly. Mo Xiaocheng, General Manager of Huanrui Tianze, analyzed that this is mainly due to the fact that the liquidity situation has basically shaken off the pessimistic expectations and short-term disturbances caused by the war. In addition, it is currently the peak period for annual report disclosures, and many core assets have delivered solid results, providing strong performance support for market pricing and further strengthening investors' confidence in fundamental recovery.
Beware of These Factors
How sustainable is the upward trend of A-shares?
Hong Lei reminded that in the short term, attention should be paid to the historical pressure of trapped positions above 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index and the differentiation brought about by the concentrated disclosure of financial reports, which may lead to repeated fluctuations in the index. From a medium-term perspective, institutions generally believe that A-shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, and there is still room for market sentiment recovery.
Hu Mohan, fund manager at Mingze Investment, holds an optimistic view on the future performance of A-shares. He believes that the two major variables that previously constrained the market have both shown signs of retreat, and there are no factors in the short term that could suppress the market's upward movement. At the same time, he reminded that attention should be paid to the technical resistance near 4200 points, as this area is a previous high transaction zone, and there will inevitably be repeated tug-of-war during the breakthrough process, but there is a high probability of forming an effective breakthrough and reaching new highs within the year.
Fang Chong bluntly stated that attention should be paid to the evaluation and response measures of the Political Bureau meeting at the end of April regarding domestic and international situations, as well as whether Trump's visit to China can proceed as scheduled in May. In an environment with high external uncertainties, market sentiment will remain cautious, so the probability of the index fluctuating widely around 3800 to 4100 points in the short term is still relatively high. Although the domestic development situation is better than that abroad, the market is difficult to remain unaffected, and it is necessary to wait for the geopolitical haze to dissipate before the upward space can become clearer.
Avoid Performance Traps
In terms of sector allocation, Mo Xiaocheng is optimistic about the two high-certainty tracks of pharmaceuticals and consumption, especially leading companies with excellent business models that can continuously meet consumer demand.
Regarding portfolio allocation, Hong Lei suggested focusing on low-valuation blue chips with strong performance certainty and high-quality targets in high-prosperity tracks, balancing allocation around the first-quarter report verification window, with three main lines: AI technology growth, resource products, and advanced manufacturing, while controlling positions to avoid pure thematic stocks that have risen too much previously.
Chen Bozhong suggested paying close attention to sectors with clear performance growth and low valuations in the new productive forces, and flexibly adjusting positions based on external political conflicts and cutting-edge technological information.
&#34;As April enters the peak period for annual and first-quarter report disclosures, investment logic further returns to 'performance verification',&#34; Hu Mohan suggested focusing on three dimensions: high-prosperity tracks in the first-quarter report, directions of marginal improvement in fundamentals, and policy beneficiaries and low-valuation directions. At the same time, it is necessary to be cautious of performance traps, as directions and stocks lacking performance support may face adjustment risks during the financial report disclosure period. Specifically, it is recommended to pay attention to themes such as non-bank financials, humanoid robots, AI hardware and applications, self-indulgent consumption, non-ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry.
Reporter: Zhu Denghua
Text Editor: Chen Si

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On April 16th, the ChiNext Index returned to a nearly 11-year high, with daily trading volume dropping to CNY 2.36 trillion and 4,293 stocks rising. The easing of the Middle East situation and a domestic GDP growth of 5% boosted market confidence, but caution is needed due to insufficient trading volume. It is recommended to balance allocations around the first quarter reports, focusing on AI technology, resource products, and advanced manufacturing. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.17%. Some sectors, such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment, performed outstandingly, with leveraged funds rebounding. The market's profit-making effect is good, with 88 stocks hitting the daily limit

11 years! ChiNext index returns to its peak, can it stand firm this time?