<div id="readability-page-1"><div><ul> <li>If you are wondering whether GFL Environmental’s current share price offers value or just more volatility, the recent share performance gives you a lot to weigh up.</li> <li>The stock closed at US$50.41, with returns of an 8.1% decline over 7 days, an 18.7% decline over 30 days, a 14.4% decline year to date, a 28.2% decline over 1 year, a 1.1% gain over 3 years and a 34.9% gain over 5 years.</li> <li>Recent coverage around GFL Environmental has focused on its position in the commercial services sector and how investors are reassessing risk and growth prospects in that space. This context helps explain why some investors are rethinking whether the recent share price weakness reflects short term sentiment or longer term concerns.</li> <li>Right now, the company’s valuation score sits at 2 out of 6, which raises important questions about how different valuation approaches compare and hints at an even richer way to understand the stock’s value that will be covered at the end of this article.</li> </ul> <p>GFL Environmental scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p> <h3>Approach 1: GFL Environmental Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3> <p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting the cash the company may generate in the future and discounting those amounts back to today’s value. For GFL Environmental, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model is used, which places more weight on earlier, analyst based years and then extends those forecasts further out.</p> <p>The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is CA$142.9 million. Analyst and model projections show Free Cash Flow figures in the CA$800 million to CA$1.3 billion range between 2026 and 2035, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond the explicit analyst horizon. These projected cash flows are then discounted to today and combined into an estimated intrinsic value of CA$66.55 per share.</p> <p>Against the recent share price of US$50.41, this DCF output suggests GFL Environmental is trading at a 24.3% discount to the model’s estimate of fair value. On this cash flow based approach, the stock currently screens as undervalued.</p> <p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p> <p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests GFL Environmental is undervalued by 24.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 4 more high quality undervalued stocks.</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/dcf/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/dcf/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2"/><figcaption>GFL Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026</figcaption></figure> <p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for GFL Environmental.</p> <h3>Approach 2: GFL Environmental Price vs Earnings</h3> <p>For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to compare what investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It helps you see, at a glance, how the market is pricing current earnings relative to other stocks. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower, more conservative P/E as being normal.</p> <p>GFL Environmental currently trades on a P/E of 86.48x. That sits above the Commercial Services industry average of 16.79x and above the peer average of 64.22x, so the stock is priced more richly than many competitors on headline earnings. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for GFL Environmental is 40.40x, which reflects a preferred P/E once factors like earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, industry and specific risks are considered together.</p> <p>This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it attempts to line up the multiple with the company’s own fundamentals rather than just its sector. With the current P/E of 86.48x sitting above the Fair Ratio of 40.40x, the stock screens as expensive on this earnings based approach.</p> <p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2"/><figcaption>TSX:GFL P/E Ratio as at May 2026</figcaption></figure> <p>P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 2 top founder-led companies.</p> <h2>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your GFL Environmental Narrative</h2> <p>Earlier, it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, and that is where Narratives come in, giving you a clear story for GFL Environmental that connects your view of its business to a forecast and then to a fair value you can compare with the current price.</p> <p>A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your version of that story, where you set expectations for future revenue, earnings and margins, link them to a fair value estimate, then see in one place whether your view suggests the stock looks expensive or cheap.</p> <p>On the Community page, you can browse Narratives from other investors and analysts, such as a bullish view that sees fair value around CA$86.0 or a more cautious view closer to CA$55.0 to CA$60.0, and quickly check how each Narrative’s fair value compares with today’s share price.</p> <p>As new information arrives, such as updates on revenue guidance, M&amp;A activity, dividends or share buybacks, Narratives are refreshed so you can see how those changes flow through to forecasts and fair value. This can help you decide whether your own GFL Environmental story still holds up or needs adjusting.</p> <p>Do you think there's more to the story for GFL Environmental? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/quote-price/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/12cd25ec-e71e-4235-bf02-6d25082f2110/chart/quote-price/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTA1LTA2"/><figcaption>TSX:GFL 1-Year Stock Price Chart</figcaption></figure> <p><em> This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data         and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your         financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.         Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.         Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p><div><h3><strong>New: </strong>Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place</h3><p>We've created the <strong>ultimate portfolio companion</strong> for stock investors, <strong>and it's free.</strong></p><p>• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency<br/>• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile<br/>• Track the Fair Value of your stocks<br/></p><p>Try a Demo Portfolio for Free</p></div></div></div>

<p>GFL Environmental's share price has recently declined, closing at US$50.41, with significant drops over various time frames. Analysts are reassessing the company's value, with a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggesting it is undervalued by 24.3%, estimating a fair value of CA$66.55 per share. However, its P/E ratio of 86.48x is significantly higher than industry averages, indicating it may be overvalued based on earnings. Investors are encouraged to consider different valuation approaches and narratives to assess the stock's potential.</p>

Is GFL Environmental (TSX:GFL) Now Offering Opportunity After Recent Share Price Weakness