China’s Consumer, Factory Gate Prices Rise in April Amid Surging Energy Prices

(Yicai) May 12 -- Both consumer and factory gate prices in China increased last month from a year earlier, mainly because fluctuation in international oil prices pushed domestic energy prices up.The consumer price index rose 1.2 percent in April from a year earlier, up from a 1 percent year-on-year increase the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday. On a monthly basis, the CPI expanded 0.3 percent last month, reversing a 0.7 percent decline in March.Chinese energy prices climbed 5.7 percent in April from the same period last year, with gasoline prices up 12.6 percent from the month before. Demand for travel services soared last month, given the Tomb Sweeping Festival, Labor Day holidays, and spring break in some regions, driving air ticket prices by 29 percent and hotel prices by 3.9 percent from March.Food prices dropped 1.6 percent as the supply of fresh vegetables and pork remained stable, exerting downward pressure on the CPI.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.2 percent in April from a year earlier, remaining largely unchanged from March.The CPI rise last month is generally in line with seasonal patterns, as domestic prices have not fundamentally changed despite the impact of imported inflation, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. The consumer goods market still exhibits a ‘strong supply and weak demand’ pattern, indicating that there is still room for further supporting policies, he added.Wang expects the year-on-year CPI growth in May to potentially rise to around 1.4 percent.Factory Gate PricesThe producer price index surged 2.8 percent in April from a year ago, compared with a 0.5 percent increase in March, primarily driven by the energy and chemical industry chain, according to NBS data. The PPI rose 1.7 percent on a monthly basis, up from 1 percent in the period.Rising international oil prices pushed the oil and natural gas extraction costs up by nearly 19 percent last month from the previous one, while the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries experienced an over 16 percent increase. Optical fiber manufacturing prices soared 23 percent in the period, buoyed by the rapid growth in domestic demand for computing power.Manufacturing prices for lithium-ion batteries inched up 1.6 percent, while the rate of decline for new energy vehicles narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, showing that efforts to curb involution-style competition are taking effect.The PPI increase in April exceeded expectations, with price hikes highly concentrated in the energy and chemical industry chain, according to China International Capital Corporation. As ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran are still ongoing, international oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels.CICC believes that both the PPI and CPI still have upward potential year-on-year over the next two months.The global transmission effect of oil price shocks is beginning to manifest, with several economies experiencing significant rises in PPIs, said Wu Ge, chief economist at Changjiang Securities. Historically, there is a lag in the full realization of price increase expectations following cost shocks, and it is possible that the peak is yet to come, he added.Changes in prices imply that the focus of macroeconomic policy will gradually shift towards price stabilization, Wang noted. As a result, the timing for the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies may be postponed.Editor: Futura Costaglione