Why Rigetti (RGTI) Stock Is Down Today and Why Rosenblatt Sees More Than 100% Upside

Shares of Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) are heading lower in Tuesday’s session following the release of the quantum company’s Q1 results.Claim 55% Off TipRanksTrade RGTI with leverage The stock had been building momentum in recent weeks, climbing 59% since bottoming in late March, but the pullback appears tied to a mix of profit-taking following the strong run and concerns around ongoing, though narrowing, net losses and elevated cash burn. In the quarter, revenue came in at $4.4 million, up 199.3% year-over-year, and beating expectations by $0.27 million. At the other end of the scale, adjusted EPS reached -$0.04, in line with the forecast and improving on the -0.08 delivered during the same period last year. As anticipated, Rigetti recognized just under half of the approximately $5.7 million in orders tied to two previously disclosed 9-qubit Novera QPU system sales, with the remaining revenue expected in Q2. The company also completed shipment and sale of a 9-qubit Novera QPU to the University of Saskatchewan. Additional revenue from a separate 9-qubit Novera QPU sale to a Japan-based customer is expected in Q2. Rigetti also remains on schedule to deliver its Cepheus-1-108Q system to C-DAC in India by Q4. Meanwhile, Rigetti’s superconducting quantum processor system Cepheus-1-108Q is now widely accessible through Rigetti QCS, Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and qBraid, expanding access to its highest-qubit system via major cloud platforms. The system consists of twelve linked 9-qubit chiplets, effectively tripling both qubit and chiplet count compared with Cepheus-1-36Q. Management highlighted ~99.1% median two-qubit gate fidelity and gate speeds of ~60 nanoseconds, which support more complex circuit execution. The company also highlighted rising customer engagement as it moves closer to quantum advantage. Looking ahead, the company plans to roll out a version of Cepheus-1-108Q during 2026 targeting around 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. It still aims to introduce a system exceeding 150 qubits by year-end, though expected fidelity is now projected at or below ~99.5%, down from a prior target of 99.7%. Over the longer term, Rigetti continues to target quantum advantage within roughly three years, defined as a system exceeding 1,000 qubits, reaching 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, and achieving sub-50 nanosecond gate speeds. While the market’s reaction appears to be a negative one, Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake likes how this story is developing. McPeake believes Rigetti is shifting its focus toward the longer-term goal of achieving high two-qubit gate fidelity, rather than prioritizing “intermediary proof points” along the way. “We think the company is executing well in the superconducting qubit modality and like their chances to achieve quantum utility by the end of the decade,” the analyst further said. “We also like the fab-to-compute stack at the company and their open solution approach to the market.” Bottom line, McPeake maintained a Buy rating on the shares, along with a joint Street-high price target of $40, suggesting the stock will gain a hefty 108% in the months ahead. (To watch McPeake’s track record, click here) The Street’s average target is not quite as exuberant, but at $30, still implies one-year returns of 57%. On the rating front, based on 8 Buys and 3 Holds, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus view. (See RGTI stock forecast)