eToro Group (NASDAQ:ETOR) beat Q1 estimates Tuesday on a near-fourfold surge in commodities trading, even as crypto volumes on the platform cratered.



CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC he expects Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to climb back near its October all-time high before year-end.



<h2>Commodities Carried The Quarter</h2>



eToro posted adjusted EPS of 91 cents, topping the 73-cent consensus, with net contribution up 19% year-over-year to $258 million. Commodities accounted for roughly 60% of trading commissions in the quarter and volumes jumped nearly 4x from a year earlier.



Assia pointed to a volatile macro environment as the catalyst for the surge, citing the ongoing war’s impact on oil and the effect of inflation and dollar devaluation on precious metals.



Crypto was the soft spot. April trades fell 32% year-over-year to 2 million, and the invested amount per crypto trade dropped 22%. Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 on October 6 and has spent most of 2026 trading between $65,000 and $90,000.



<h2>Assia Says The Rebound Is Coming</h2>



Assia argued on CNBC that the crypto weakness is cyclical, not structural, and that any rebound would reignite engagement on the platform.



“We do expect later this year to start seeing crypto rising back to, you know, near all-time high, and that will drive crypto engagement,” Assia said. 



He added that commodities volatility “seems to be just elevated over the last six months,” suggesting the rotation that lifted Q1 may stick around even if Bitcoin recovers.



<h2>Polymarket Traders Are Fading The Call</h2>



The Polymarket contract on a new Bitcoin all-time high by December 31 currently sits at just 18%, down from above 40% at the start of the year. The market has $7 million in volume.



Traders think there is only an 11% chance that Bitcoin hits $150,000 this year. 



Arthur Hayes is more bullish than both Assia and the market. 



The BitMEX co-founder said this week that Bitcoin retaking $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion,” citing AI buildout spending and wartime fiscal policy as the drivers.



<h2>What It Means For ETOR</h2>



eToro closed its $70 million acquisition of self-custodial wallet provider Zengo on April 30, with Assia framing the deal in the earnings release as bridging into “prediction markets, perpetuals and the broader crypto ecosystem.” The company also launched Agent Portfolios in Q1, letting users plug AI agents like Claude or Cursor into a sub-portfolio via API.



ETOR is trading today around $36.78, down 4% on the day despite the beat and roughly 24% below its May 2025 IPO price.



Image: Shutterstock

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eToro Group (NASDAQ:ETOR) exceeded Q1 estimates with a significant increase in commodities trading, despite a decline in crypto volumes. CEO Yoni Assia anticipates Bitcoin will approach its all-time high by year-end, attributing the surge in commodities to macroeconomic factors. While crypto trading has decreased, Assia believes the downturn is cyclical and expects a rebound to boost engagement. eToro recently acquired Zengo and launched new AI features, although its stock is currently down 4% from its IPO price.

- eToro Group (NASDAQ:ETOR) surpassed Q1 estimates with adjusted EPS of 91 cents, driven by a surge in commodities trading, which accounted for about 60% of trading commissions.  
- CEO Yoni Assia anticipates a rebound in Bitcoin prices, suggesting trends from a volatile macro environment may elevate crypto engagement despite a significant drop in crypto trading volumes.  
- eToro's recent acquisition of Zengo and introduction of Agent Portfolios aim to expand its services, although ETOR shares are currently down 4% and 24% below its IPO price.

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Gold, Oil Saved eToro's Quarter, But CEO Yoni Assia Says Crypto All-Time Highs Are Still To Come In 2026