Hantavirus: Is there a risk of another pandemic?

Investing.com - Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares rallied 13% over a multi-day period following reports of a localized Hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise vessel MV Hondius. [[pro_promotion |Track biotech pipeline progress and valuation risks with InvestingPro]]However, a research note released by Bernstein Global Research downplays the risk of a widespread pandemic, indicating that the market’s enthusiasm may be short-lived. Bernstein reiterated its Market-Perform rating on Moderna with a price target of $45.00, implying a 17% downside from its May 8 closing price of $54.35.The recent stock spike came in response to public health concerns surrounding the MV Hondius, where the highly lethal Andes strain of Hantavirus infected approximately 10 passengers and crew members, resulting in three fatalities. While standard Hantavirus strains typically spread to humans through direct contact with rodent saliva, feces, or urine, the Andes variant has a documented history of human-to-human transmission. Despite a mortality rate hovering between 30% and 40% for Hantavirus Cardio-Pulmonary Syndrome (HCPS), Bernstein analysts emphasized that a global crisis is highly improbable, stating, "We don’t see this as the next ’pandemic’ & think this Hantavirus related trade should fade from current highs." The firm noted that the localized nature of the transmission makes it unlikely to mirror the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.Moderna remains technically well-positioned to pivot toward Hantavirus countermeasures due to the scalability of its messenger RNA platform, supported by ongoing research partnerships with Korea University’s Vaccine Innovation Center and the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID). According to Bernstein’s assessment, the company’s collaborations remain strictly in the preclinical stage. While some older, short-term vaccines exist within Asian markets to combat Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), there are currently no globally approved commercial vaccines for the more lethal HCPS presentation. Development of a comprehensive multi-strain vaccine would require phase 1 through phase 3 clinical trials, with estimated expenditures exceeding $500 million. Rather than a mass consumer rollout, Bernstein projects that any eventual commercial returns would likely manifest as steady government funding for state stockpiling and pandemic preparedness programs.