Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a mediocre week for Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSE:GOOS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to CA$13.20 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenue of CA$1.5b surpassed estimates by 3.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 22% below expectations at CA$0.23 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Canada Goose Holdings after the latest results.Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Canada Goose Holdings are now predicting revenues of CA$1.57b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 392% to CA$1.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.89 in 2027. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results. Check out our latest analysis for Canada Goose Holdings The average the analysts price target fell 19% to CA$16.63, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Canada Goose Holdings at CA$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$12.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business. These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Canada Goose Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Canada Goose Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.6% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Canada Goose Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants. The Bottom Line The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Canada Goose Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Canada Goose Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Canada Goose Holdings analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here. And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Canada Goose Holdings you should know about.