For years, the only liquid way for retail investors to buy into Elon Musk’s vision was Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).



That is about to change.



With Space Exploration Technologies Corp expected to debut as soon as next month, reportedly under the ticker SPCX at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the market is preparing for a second pure-play entry point into what Bloomberg has called the “Muskonomy.” 



For context, Tesla’s current market cap sits at roughly $1.5 trillion. The new listing would arrive larger than the one it threatens to draw capital from.



<h2>The Retail Base Is About To Get Split</h2>



BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello, who has an underperform rating on the stock, said in a recent note that the IPO may weigh on Tesla. Retail investors are estimated to own around 40% of Tesla shares, per the same note.



Joe Gilbert of Integrity Asset Management put it more bluntly. The listing “cannot be a positive for Tesla,” he reportedly told Bloomberg, adding that Musk’s focus appeared to be “lasered on SpaceX.”



The competition may run deeper than retail flow. SpaceX’s February all-stock absorption of xAI, which also folded in Grok and X, repositioned the rocket maker as a direct competitor for the AI and robotics premium baked into Tesla’s roughly 195 times forward earnings multiple.



A recent Benzinga report noted SpaceX may allocate up to 30% of the offering to retail investors, roughly triple the typical share. Those would reportedly be Class A shares, with Musk retaining around 79% of voting power through super-voting stock.



<h2>What The Data Shows</h2>



Polymarket traders currently price a merger announcement between SpaceX and Tesla by June 30 at roughly 1%. Kalshi, looking out further to May 2027, prices it at 50%.



Vanda Research data compiled through May 18 shows Tesla has drawn net retail inflows of only about $1 million since SpaceX confirmed its 2026 IPO intentions in December, with roughly equal days of inflows and outflows.



DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas told Bloomberg that the hit to Tesla shares may take around three months to show up, since big funds rotate slowly and the first weeks of any IPO are noisy.



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Wall Street warns that the upcoming SpaceX IPO could split Tesla's retail investor base, which currently holds about 40% of TSLA shares. Since the IPO confirmation, Tesla has seen only $1 million in net retail inflows. Analysts suggest that the SpaceX listing may negatively impact Tesla, as it offers a new investment avenue in Musk's ventures, potentially drawing capital away from TSLA.

- Retail investors have historically accessed Elon Musk's ventures through Tesla Inc but will soon have the option to invest in SpaceX, expected to debut as SPCX at a $1.75 trillion valuation.  
- Analysts suggest this IPO may negatively impact Tesla, given that approximately 40% of its shares are held by retail investors, with some asserting Musk's focus is shifting to SpaceX.  
- SpaceX plans to allocate up to 30% of its offering to retail investors while Tesla has seen minimal net inflows since the IPO announcement, indicating a potential market shift.

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Elon Musk's Tesla Army Faces Space X IPO: Will Capital Rotate From TSLA Into SPCX?