SG Morning Brief | Trump Calls Off Iran Strike, Yields Hit 2007 Highs, Nvidia Earnings Loom

US OvernightThe S&P 500 slipped 0.07% to 7,403.05, the Nasdaq fell 0.51% to 26,090.73, and the Dow rose 0.32% to 49,686.12 in a mixed session dominated by geopolitics and rising yields. Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after being asked by the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to hold off, saying "serious negotiations are now taking place." Brent crude topped $112 intraday before retreating below $110 on the statement. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.6%, a 52-week high, while the 20-year and 30-year yields held above 5.13% — levels last seen in 2007. The S&P Technology sector fell 1.1%, dragging the Nasdaq lower, while defensive and industrial names kept the Dow in the green. A jury ruled against Elon Musk in his $150 billion lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft. Bitcoin dropped 2% to $76,400, its lowest since late April.Key MoversSeagate (STX) -7% — Seagate fell 7% after Samsung Electronics workers threatened a mass strike over bonus caps. Samsung supplies NAND flash and DRAM used in Seagate's storage products, and any production disruption would tighten an already constrained memory supply chain. The strike threat added a new supply-side risk to the AI memory supercycle.Nvidia (NVDA) -1% — Nvidia fell 1.33% to $222.32, opening near $230 before selling off to a low of $218.37 amid rising yields and Iran escalation, then recovering most losses into the close. The stock is still up roughly 10% in May ahead of Wednesday's earnings. Analysts expect revenue of $70-78 billion.Micron (MU) -6% — Micron fell 5.95% to $681.54 on the Samsung strike threat, which could moderate DRAM and NAND production at a time when memory demand from AI data centers has driven prices up over 60% this year.SGX PreviewThe STI closed near 5,002 on Monday, with DBS at S$57.70, UOB at S$38.54, and Singtel at S$5.07. The index is trading near its all-time high of 5,041 (set in February). Trump's decision to call off the Iran strike could ease oil pressure and support the STI today, though overnight Nasdaq weakness may temper gains in tech-adjacent names. The Samsung strike threat is worth monitoring for Venture Corp and other local supply chain names.Asia Pre-MarketBrent crude is trading near $110 after retreating from $112 on Trump's de-escalation. Gold fell sharply, and Bitcoin is at $76,400. The tone is cautiously constructive: the Iran attack was called off, but yields remain at multi-year highs and the 10Y above 4.6% keeps pressure on rate-sensitive equities globally. All eyes are on Nvidia Wednesday.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)Housing Starts (April)8:30 AM8:30 PMNo major SG-relevant earnings today. Key reports later this week:CompanyDateTimingNvidia (NVDA)Wed May 20Post-mktTarget (TGT)Wed May 20Pre-mktWalmart (WMT)Thu May 21Pre-mktFOMC Minutes (April 29 meeting) also release Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.Earnings Spotlight: Nvidia (May 20) — Consensus expects revenue of $70-78 billion (+~60% YoY). This is the most consequential print of Q2: it lands on the same day as FOMC minutes and Target earnings, creating a triple catalyst. The chip sector is up 70% YTD but has sold off 5% from its highs. A beat-and-raise likely reverses the correction. A guide miss would trigger a broader repricing of AI names.One More ThingTrump calling off the Iran strike is the most significant geopolitical de-escalation since the war began in February. It does not mean a deal is done — Iran's Supreme Leader has rejected the US framework twice — but it buys time. If negotiations produce even a partial Hormuz reopening, oil drops below $90 and the inflation narrative shifts overnight. That is the bull case. The bear case is that yields above 4.6% are already pricing in persistent inflation regardless of oil, and the Fed under Warsh may be forced to hike before year-end. Wednesday's Nvidia earnings will tell us which narrative wins in the near term. If Jensen Huang delivers, the market will trade the AI supercycle. If he disappoints, the market will trade the inflation shock.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.