<div id="readability-page-1">The countdown has begun, as Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) prepares to unveil its first-quarter report this Wednesday. Investors are heading into the release with expectations running high, as Nvidia has repeatedly delivered massive growth fueled by relentless AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers and enterprises racing to expand computing capacity.<h3>Claim 55% Off TipRanks</h3>Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade NVDA Heading into the print, NVDA stock has climbed about 11% so far this month, reflecting continued confidence that the company can once again deliver results well ahead of expectations. However, according to investor Florian Muller, there are reasons to believe Nvidia may not exceed expectations by the same magnitude investors have grown accustomed to seeing. &#34;Nvidia remains a core holding, with robust revenue and earnings quality, but I refrain from further accumulation ahead of earnings,&#34; Muller noted. Muller's caution mainly comes down to one issue – expectations may have finally caught up with Nvidia's growth trajectory. The investor points out that hyperscaler capital spending has historically been one of the strongest leading indicators for Nvidia's revenue performance, with spending trends from Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon showing an exceptionally high correlation with Nvidia's revenue one quarter later. That relationship has worked especially well over the past several quarters, when accelerating AI infrastructure spending consistently translated into Nvidia delivering revenue far ahead of Wall Street expectations. This time, however, Muller believes the setup looks different. While Google's latest capex figure remained strong, the investor notes that spending trends at Microsoft and Meta were less aggressive on a sequential basis, with Microsoft's capex remaining &#34;almost flat QoQ&#34; while Meta's spending actually declining from the prior quarter. Using the same historical framework that successfully projected Nvidia's outsized beats in recent quarters, Muller estimates Nvidia could report about $78 billion to $80 billion in quarterly revenue. The problem is that those figures are now largely aligned with analyst consensus rather than meaningfully above it. Muller believes investors are gradually becoming accustomed to Nvidia's huge beats, reducing the scale of upside surprises over time. &#34;The margin of surprises is shrinking overall, as analysts get used to beats and investors continue to up their expectations,&#34; Muller explained. Importantly, Muller made clear that his caution is not rooted in concerns about Nvidia's underlying business quality. In fact, he praised the company's &#34;robust revenue and earnings quality,&#34; while highlighting Nvidia's strong free cash flow generation and improving cash conversion metrics. The investor also pushed back against concerns surrounding receivables, arguing they should be viewed relative to the company's rapidly expanding sales base rather than in isolation. At the valuation level, Muller acknowledged that his discounted cash flow assumptions have become more constructive in recent months, helped by improving cash flow expectations and a rising net cash position. Nevertheless, he suggested Nvidia's recent rally has already priced in much of the optimism. While he still views Nvidia as a core long-term holding, he said he would find share prices below $200 more attractive for adding exposure. For now, Muller remains invested in Nvidia, though he noted he is maintaining an underweight position relative to broader indexes and ETFs ahead of what could become one of the market's most closely watched earnings releases this quarter. To this end, Muller assigns NVDA shares a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. That's not a very common view on Wall Street. With 40 Buys, and just 1 Hold and Sell, each, NVDA boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $281.59 implies ~27% upside from current levels. (See NVDA stock forecast) </div>

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Investor Florian Muller advises caution on Nvidia stock ahead of its earnings report, suggesting that expectations may have caught up with the company's growth. While he acknowledges Nvidia's strong revenue and earnings quality, he believes the potential for significant upside surprises has diminished. Muller maintains a Hold rating on NVDA shares, indicating a neutral stance, despite the stock's recent rally and strong consensus rating from analysts.

- Nvidia is set to announce its first-quarter report, with high investor expectations driven by strong AI infrastructure spending.  
- Investor Florian Muller expresses caution, noting that while Nvidia's growth is robust, expectations may have caught up to its revenue trajectory, particularly with mixed capital spending trends from major clients like Microsoft and Meta.  
- Muller maintains a neutral stance on Nvidia, highlighting that while he views it as a core holding, he perceives the share price rally has priced in optimism, rating it as a Hold.

'Don't Go All In,' Says Investor About Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings