Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades below $77,000 after getting rejected at the 200-day moving average, and analyst Benjamin Cowen expects weakness to persist into Q3 and early Q4.



<h3>200-Day MA Provided Resistance In Every Bear Market</h3>



The 200-day moving average provided resistance in May 2018, March 2022, and now May 2026. Bitcoin rallied to the 200-day MA in all three cases before selling off into June.



The only exception was 2014 when Bitcoin got slightly above the 200-day MA in June before ultimately collapsing. 



Cowen noted that bear markets typically see Bitcoin find temporary support around the 20-week moving average at $75,000 after getting rejected at the 200-day MA.



<h3>Two Paths To October Bottom</h3>



Cowen outlined two scenarios leading to a Q4 low. The more bearish path sees Bitcoin drop into May, hold briefly, then sell off into June and sweep the February low like it did in late 2018.



From there, a counter-trend rally in July and August would precede another drop into October marking the market cycle bottom. 



The more bullish path calls for Bitcoin to drop into June, then rally back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level around $85,000 before selling off into Q4.



“Bitcoin has yet to tag that 0.382 level,” Cowen stated. 



“Historically after you get these drops, Bitcoin does eventually go to the 0.382,” he added.



In 2014, Bitcoin tagged the 0.382 in June. In 2018, it hit the level in March. Moreover, In 2022, it reached the 0.382 in April.



<h3>Windows Of Weakness: February, April, June, October</h3>



Cowen identified recurring windows of weakness in bear market midterm years. The big windows are early February, early April, June, and October.



“My guess is that the weakness will persist with Bitcoin into Q3 and probably at least into early Q4,” Cowen explained. 



He noted that 2014 saw major lows in early February, late February, and early April, with the next significant low not occurring until early October.



<h3>Stablecoin Dominance Rallying Back Up</h3>



Stablecoin dominance is rallying back up right where it normally does in bear markets. It went slightly below the 21-week EMA and is now rallying back, exactly how it found bottoms in the last bear market.



Year-to-date performance shows Bitcoin tracking 2018 closely with a low in February, highs in March, another higher low in April, and a high in May before starting to sell off into June.



Meanwhile, manufacturing, international markets, gold, silver, and energy all outperformed Bitcoin in 2026.



The optimistic view is a low in Q4 2026. The pessimistic view is that the business cycle ends late 2026, taking Bitcoin down with stocks when the bull market should start.



Image: Shutterstock

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Bitcoin's price has dropped below $77,000 after facing resistance at the 200-day moving average, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen. He predicts continued weakness into Q3 and Q4, with historical patterns indicating potential support around $75,000. Cowen outlines two scenarios for Bitcoin's trajectory, including a pessimistic outlook that could see further declines into June.

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Bitcoin Down To $77,000 At Key Resistance Level: What Is Going On?