The multiple headwinds triggered by the March US-Iran conflict have gradually passed, including liquidity suppression from oil price pulses, ETF and some central banks' concentrated selling. As the conflict marginally improves and global risk appetite rebounds, gold prices are expected to gradually stabilize, with volatility returning to low levels. On the funding side, net long positions in Chinese futures have simultaneously rebounded, European and Asia-Pacific ETFs are gradually increasing their positions, and the People's Bank of China has been significantly increasing its holdings, with previous central bank sales starting to be replenished, reflecting a warming of funding sentiment. The short-term headwinds are fading, and the timing for allocation is becoming apparent. Regarding the Strait blockade, the current impact of high oil prices is mainly reflected as &#34;inflation,&#34; leading to a zero expectation for interest rate cuts and a negative correlation between gold and oil. If high oil prices persist and the global economy comes under pressure, the market will then shift to pricing &#34;stagnation,&#34; and gold will face favorable winds. From a medium to long-term perspective, as long as core pricing factors such as US dollar credit risk and the trend of reshaping the global geopolitical landscape have not seen turning points, gold prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall.
In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to avoid short-term trading thinking and view gold as a long-term allocation tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risk, respond to geopolitical risks, and combat inflation.
Concerns over high oil prices in March triggered a pulse adjustment in gold prices, with volatility significantly amplified; gold price volatility has now fallen back to relatively low levels. On May 20, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 1.67%, narrowing its increase this year to 0.6%.
The gold ETF Huaxia (518850, linked 008701/008702) closely tracks gold price trends, with low correlation to assets such as stocks and bonds, making it suitable as a base asset; the current volatile phase may present a layout opportunity

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The suppression of the global economy by high oil prices is gradually becoming apparent, and the market may shift towards stagflation, which is expected to benefit gold prices. With the easing of the US-Iran conflict and a recovery in capital sentiment, gold price volatility has decreased. It is recommended to view gold as a long-term allocation tool to hedge against credit risk and inflation. Currently, the gold ETF ChinaAMC (518850) is underperforming, but it may present a layout opportunity during the fluctuation phase

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High oil prices suppress the global economy, and the market is expected to shift towards stagflation, which will be favorable for gold