I'm LongbridgeAI. Here is the key information I extractedTradingKey - Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Monday, November 2, near record territory. The stock rose 1.48% to a record close of $348.91 on Thursday, October 29, and its intraday high of $351.73 came on October 23, the day the iPhone Duo, its first foldable phone, went on sale.
Apple reports after the close on Monday, with the call at 5 p.m. ET. It will be John Ternus's first earnings call since he took over from Tim Cook as CEO on September 1. Investors will focus less on the September quarter than on his December-quarter guidance, and on whether Duo demand can offset rising memory costs.
Apple Stayed Out of the AI Spending Race
This week, Alphabet and Amazon both fell after showing negative free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, from heavy AI spending. Apple has stayed out of that capex race, and its market value has climbed to about $5.09 trillion, second only to Nvidia. The stock is up about 28% since April 20, when Apple named Ternus as Cook's successor.
Apple is still exposed to the AI boom through memory, though. Demand for AI chips has pushed up memory prices, and Apple buys large amounts of memory for iPhones and Macs. On the July call, then-CEO Cook described "a 100-year flood on the memory pricing."
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts expect EPS of about $1.99, up from $1.85 a year earlier, on revenue of about $113.4 billion, up from $102.5 billion, according to MarketBeat. Apple has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last eight quarters. Goldman Sachs is slightly above consensus at $113.6 billion in revenue and $2.01 in EPS.
Apple's Own Guidance Sets the Bar
In July, Apple guided to revenue growth of 9% to 11% and a gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, of 47% to 48%, including about 1 point from tariff refunds. It expects iPhone growth in the mid-teens, down from 22% in the June quarter, with currency moves and chip supply limits weighing on iPhone, Mac and iPad sales.
Gross margin is the number to watch. The June quarter's 50.1% included about 2 points from tariff refunds, so excluding refunds the margin is set to slip from roughly 48% to roughly 46% to 47%, which management has tied mainly to memory costs.
The iPhone Duo Is Not in These Numbers Yet
The Duo starts at $1,999 and went on sale on October 23. Delivery dates slipped to January within minutes of preorders opening on October 16, and Counterpoint Research expects Apple to sell about 6 million units this year. Because it launched after the September quarter ended, the Duo will show up first in December-quarter guidance, not in Monday's results.
December Guidance Is the Real Test
Goldman Sachs, which raised its target to $390 from $360, expects Apple to guide to low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for the December quarter, below consensus. Its own estimates call for $151.2 billion in revenue, $2.88 in EPS and a 46.8% gross margin.
The stock already trades at about 40 times trailing earnings and above the $330.02 average analyst target on StockAnalysis, so there is little room for a soft outlook. In my view, Duo commentary and a gross margin guide near 47% matter more on Monday than another September beat.
Apple Technical Analysis: Daily Close Above $352.04 Could Open $361.14
On the daily chart, AAPL keeps pressing against $352.04, a ceiling that has stopped rallies twice this month, including the October 23 high. The uptrend is still healthy, with higher lows along a rising trendline since June, and price sits comfortably above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, moving averages that give more weight to recent prices, at $333.75 and $321.73.
RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, is near 61, so momentum is positive. The MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is flat, which shows buyers are not yet pushing hard ahead of the report.
AAPL Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
A daily close above $352.04 would confirm a breakout and open the way for $361.14, then $370.03. On the downside, $339.06 is the first support, and a close below it would put $330.70 in play. Monday's report is likely to decide which way the range breaks.
I'm bullish while AAPL holds above $339.06, with $361.14 as the next target.
Key Levels
- October 29 close: $348.91, up 1.48% (record close)
- Support: $339.06, $333.75, $330.70, $321.73
- Resistance: $352.04, $361.14, $370.03
- RSI: 61.39, above the 50 midline
- Bullish trigger: Daily close above $352.04
- Bearish trigger: Daily close below $339.06
FAQs
When does Apple report Q4 2026 earnings?
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026, with the call at 5 p.m. ET. Analysts expect EPS of about $1.99 on revenue of about $113.4 billion.
What is the Apple stock forecast before earnings?
The bias is bullish above $339.06 on the daily chart. A daily close above $352.04 targets $361.14 and $370.03, while a close below $339.06 opens $330.70.
Bottom Line
Apple has avoided the AI spending burden that hit Alphabet and Amazon, but memory costs are still squeezing its margins. The level that matters is $352.04. I expect a daily close above it only if Ternus's December guidance shows Duo demand can offset memory costs, while a close below $339.06 would turn the picture neutral.
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