Kellyk310

S&P 500 closed down 67 basis points Tuesday. The Philly Semi is off nearly 10% over seven sessions. On the surface that's a sector in distress. But look at what happened inside Tuesday's session and the real story is rotation, not collapse.

$Astera Labs(ALAB.US) up 12.6%. $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) up 4%. $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) up roughly 3% each. $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) down 4%.

These numbers don't coexist by accident. The market is drawing a hard line between two semiconductor categories: AI infrastructure (interconnect, optics, HBM memory) and legacy cycle exposure (consumer, handset, automotive). Qualcomm sits squarely in the second. ALAB is the purest expression of the first.

ALAB's Q1 revenue was USD 308 million, up 93% year-over-year. They guided USD 360 million next quarter — 17% sequential growth. The 30-year Treasury at 5.197% is putting pressure on high-multiple growth names. ALAB went up 13% anyway. That tells you the market is treating AI infrastructure cash flows as durable enough to hold through the rate environment.

I'm watching whether the optical and interconnect trade extends or gives back after a single-session pop of that magnitude. ALAB's earnings growth rate justifies the attention. The entry discipline after a 13% move requires more patience.

Those views can change at a moment's notice when the market changes.

Samsung union vote: 18-day strike potentially coming.HBM prices up 63% in a single month. SSD up 19%.If the strike goes ahead, HBM supply tightens further at exactly the wrong moment — every AI accelerator stack depends on it.SK Hynix benefits. Micron benefits. The memory shortage narrative just got a real catalyst behind it.Worth watching this week.

AMD (AMD.US) held its Developer Day event this week, putting fresh focus on the MI400 series as its most direct bid yet to capture meaningful share from Nvidia (NVDA.US) in the AI a...

❓ What does DBS's earnings tomorrow tell us about the rest of the SG banks?

DBS reports first; UOB and OCBC follow on May 7 and May 8. SG bank earnings tend to move in correlation. If DBS shows NIM stabilising, fees growing, and clean asset quality, the read-through to UOB and OCBC is positive — and STI direction tends to follow for two weeks.

But correlation isn't causation. Each bank has different geographic exposure (DBS more pan-Asian, UOB more SEA, OCBC more Greater China + insurance). A clean DBS print doesn't guarantee a clean OCBC print.

What's your view — are you waiting for all three before committing capital, or do you trade on DBS as the leading indicator?

For informational purposes only.

$POP MART(09992.HK) Pop Mart about to drop earnings📦

Low-key excited to see if their overseas growth finally matches what I’ve been seeing on the ground here. Molly, Labubu, etc. are literally everywhere in SG now.

Also low-key scared to add up how many boxes I bought since last quarter. Whatever number they report… I probably helped😅

Anyone else holding and hoping?

$iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) holdings dropped 28.2 tonnes yesterday to 16079.7 tonnes . Outflows while price volatile. Retail scared, institutions like Jane Street accumulating. Classic distribution phase.

Feeling the market chop and cash sitting idle? Might be worth talking about $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) SG.SG as a hedge. On SGX it’s been the top ETF by net inflows and gold still acting like the classic safe-haven across market cycles.

Just read the 2025 Annual Report. $ASML(ASML.US) highlighting AI as key driver . 26% institutional ownership, Arrowstreet up 195% last quarter . They're not just selling machines, they're enabling the entire AI revolution.

$Micron Tech.US up 300% from the lows but forward P/E still only 12.4x, 46% discount to the sector . Market still pricing this like a cyclical memory stock, not an AI infrastructure play. HBM4 fully sold out for 2026, gross margins guided to 68% next quarter . Something doesn't add up here. 📈

January revenue +36.8% YoY to NT$401B . Q1 guidance $346-358B USD, up 30%+ . Barclays just raised target to $450 . $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Stock at $370.04. Market still pricing in execution risk. I'm pricing in monopoly math.

$Strategy(MSTR.US) mNAV now 0.95x, first time trading below bitcoin NAV. Phong Le pivoting to perpetual preferreds to stop dilution. 11.25% yield is expensive but better than issuing equity at 30% discount. This is them admitting old playbook is broken.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) doesn't resemble a high-beta speculative stock... it's more like a stock whose valuation is slowly recovering. If future cost trends stabilize, institutions may return, but it won't be too stimulating in the short term

$POP MART(09992.HK) Wah, POP MART is on fire, up again today and looking strong for a 7th straight day of gains. The good vibes come from their latest business update: they sold over 400 million products globally last year, with THE MONSTERS series alone hitting 100 million. For Q1 2026, they expect demand in China to stay "resilient".

Novo suing Hims is getting spicy! This drama could move prices

Novo suing Hims is getting spicy! This drama could move prices

Alibaba is involved in AI and has also successfully launched Taobao Flash Sale, yet its stock price hasn't risen.

$Oracle(ORCL.US) This was a bubble. It took $Cisco(CSCO.US) 21 years to return to its 2000 stock price.

Crypto equities are weird right now — COIN ran up on regulatory clarity around stablecoins, and that same dynamic keeps Circle in play as the USDC issuer. But BMNR’s balance sheet stuff is wild: billions in ETH and staking plans give a treasury angle no other listed crypto firm matches. I’m watching how stablecoin laws affect Coinbase and Circle revenues, and whether BitMine’s ETH accumulation ends up outperforming pure exchange plays.

$Pony AI(PONY.US)reduced losses are a positive sign for the capital-intensive AV sector, but the path to profitability is still long.

$Pony AI(PONY.US)reduced losses are a positive sign for the capital-intensive AV sector, but the path to profitability is still long.

$Strategy(MSTR.US) The overall macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin is cooling down.

SanDisk still holding gains from Friday, the only green in my portfolio

SanDisk still holding gains from Friday, the only green in my portfolio

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) UnitedHealth’s stock plunged after a tiny 0.09% Medicare Advantage rate hike proposal and weak 2026 revenue guidance; even a narrow Q4 earnings beat couldn’t stop the sell-off. Is this downturn a buying opportunity?

The TikTok outage tied to an Oracle data center is a reminder that cloud reliability matters more than ever, and investors will watch how management responds.